Week 12 NCAAF Last Chance Value Picks for Saturday

Week 12 NCAAF Last Chance Value Picks for Saturday
Jordan Travis #13 of the Florida State Seminoles on October 24, 2020 in Louisville, Kentucky. Andy Lyons/Getty Images/AFP

Last week we connected with a pair of ATS covers and we intend to do even better this week when we exploit the numbers that have drifted too far from the openers. Let’s find the value and hammer our books!

Clemson Tigers vs. Florida State Seminoles

Saturday, November 21, 2020 – 12:00 PM ET at Doak Campbell Stadium

Last week we hit two out of three of our Last Chance Value Picks with Florida State being the only loss in our college football picks. However, value is where you see it and once again the public is gravitating to another big favorite playing the Seminoles. Last week it was North Carolina State as 13-point home favorites over Florida State and this week we see Clemson skyrocketing from 31 to 35 ½ point road chalk as they prepare to invade Tallahassee.

Last week Trevor Lawrence was sacked by COVID-19. Not so coincidentally, the Tigers lost their first game of the season to Notre Dame. However, this week Lawrence will be back under center. The public narrative is that Clemson will be itching to atone for their loss and Lawrence will be rearing to go after being out last week. It’s hard to argue with that logic, but on the flip side, we are now getting FSU +35 ½ and it’s the hook that I like because it nudges us ahead of five touchdowns.

Florida State is not a good football team, this we know. However, they did play Notre Dame tough earlier this season and covered the number as 21-point dogs in a 42-26 loss at South Bend. Now we get the Seminoles +35 ½ against the team that lost to the Irish last week, and we get them at home, no less. FSU loses but chances are they will hang around just enough to cover this swollen number.

NCAAF Pick: Florida State 35.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Florida St. 35.5-110
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Dorian Thompson-Robinson #1 of the UCLA Bruins. Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images/AFP

UCLA Bruins vs. Oregon Ducks

Saturday, November 21, 2020 - 3:30 PM ET at Autzen Stadium

All of the top betting sites have fallen in lockstep with each other in tagging the Ducks as 17 ½ point home favorites, drifting 3 ½ points from the opening line. The line shift has everything to do with the Bruins’ quarterback, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, being unavailable for this matchup. His official status is doubtful, but reports are firm that he is not suiting up.

Redshirt freshman Chase Griffin, the former Gatorade Texas high school player of the year who in his senior year tossed for 4,051 yards and 51 touchdowns, is the most likely to replace Thompson-Robinson. But this is not a UCLA team devoid of talent, they are skilled on both sides of the ball and should give the Ducks a game, regardless of who is under center. Once again, the college football odds are making this too tempting to resist so while the squares will continue to send it in on Oregon, we will gladly take advantage of the line lift on the Bruins.

NCAAF Pick: UCLA +17.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

UCLA +17.5-110
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Will Muschamp Collin Hill
Collin Hill is congratulated by head coach Will Muschamp - Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images/AFP

Missouri Tigers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks

Saturday, November 21, 2020 - 7:30 PM ET at Williams-Brice Stadium

South Carolina started their season with losses to Tennessee and Florida, both ranked opponents. But then rebounded with a pair of victories over Vanderbilt and No. 15 Auburn. However, over the last three weeks, their defense has taken a sabbatical and surrendered an average of 53 points per game in losses to LSU, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss.

Missouri travels to Columbia on Saturday trying to even their record after a 2-3 start that last saw them dropping a 41-17 decision to the Gators. I’m not sure why a 2-3 Missouri team is spotting a conference rival close to a touchdown in hostile territory. The Tigers don’t have a potent offense and they are as lousy as the Gamecocks defense that has been playing as of late. I don’t see this as a blowout either way.

The oddsmakers over at Heritage are giving us 6.5 points with the ‘Cocks. That’s tough to refuse considering South Carolina has won and covered three of the last four meetings with Missouri.

NCAAF Pick: South Carolina +6.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Gamecocks +6.5-108
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