Week 11 Top 5 ATS Cats and Rats: Arkansas State Our New Top Cat in Weekly ATS Rankings

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, November 7, 2017 1:39 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 7, 2017 1:39 PM UTC

Time keeps on ticking, ticking, into The Future. It’s Week 11 already and things like Turkeys and Snow and Christmas Lists can’t be far behind, so let’s look at the latest Top 5 ATS Cats and Rats rankings for Week 11.

TOP 5 College Football ATS Cats Rankings1—Arkansas State 5-2-0 ATS (Last week: Not ranked)

Arkansas State (5-2 SU/ATS) were off last week, and with all Top 5 ATS Cats losing ATS in a mass regression to the statistical mean, the Red Wolves hesitantly slide into the top spot despite the 2 ATS Losses (FCS ARK-PINE BLUFF, SMU) by virtue of now #2 cat Iowa State barely not covering (+3½) and Pushing (+4) for some in Big 12 Week 10 play at West Virginia in a 20-16 Loss at Blacksburg last Saturday. On tap this week for Arkansas State in Week 11 action, a Sun Belt Conference date at South Alabama at Ladd-Peebles Stadium (FieldTurf) in Mobile, Alabama on Saturday and the recent and relevant Trends show sack-masters Ja’Von Rolland Jones, Caleb Caston and the Red Wolves (+15.1 ppg vs ATS) are 4-0 ATS L4 and 5-0 SU L5 against the Jaguars with South Alabama (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS), including a 17-7 win and ATS cover last season as a 4-point chalk at Home in Jonesboro, Arkansas.

Arkansas State may be an invisible team to some, but to the Red Wolves backers at the betting windows, this has been a solid side to back so far. Arkansas State, who will head into Week 11 well-rested off of their Bye Week, defeating New Mexico State in its last game (Week 9), winning 37-21 in the Town of Hot Peppers, Las Cruces, and covering ATS as 3½-point Road Favorites And some Betworthy South Alabama fodder for The Future? Arkansas State (3-0 ATS Home) is a profitable 16-5 ATS at Home (76.2%) the L3+ seasons and have two Home games remaining on its schedule: Week 12 vs. Texas State and the Regular Season finale in Week 14 vs. Troy (ARK ST 5-0 ATS L5). But can the Red Wolves (40.4 ppg, #10 FBS) cover the Point Spread in Week 11 on the Road at South Alabama? WIth this Defense, definitely, and the 2-point move up shows the early money and the Sharps are thinking the same thing. Defense wins championships. And bets. Howl on.

 2—Iowa State 7-2-0 ATS (Last week: #2)

Second-year Head Coach Matt Campbell and Iowa State stay at #2 and close to Top Cat status after falling by 4 points at West Virginia in Week 10 last Saturday, losing ATS by ½ in most sportsbooks but Pushing for some (+4), so, a mere 1 point away from an 8-1 ATS Record and the weekly honor of being ranked the best College Football team on which to bet. But no. Not now Cyclones, we’ve gotta get on with this. Iowa State’s only other previous ATS Loss this season came to Texas (7-2-0 ATS) in Week 4, a 17-7 Home loss which saw the Cyclones 5-point Home Underdogs.

In Week 11, #24 Iowa State (+13.3 vs. ATS) will host #12 Oklahoma State on Saturday from Jack Trice Stadium (Grass) in Ames in a huge game which sees the Cowboys as 7-point Road Favorites (61½). The Trends show Iowa State is 2-0 ATS the L2 seasons vs. Mason Rudolph and Oklahoma State who have gone 11-6 SU in this Big 12 series since 1992. Of note, Iowa State has played 4 straight Unders and are a 6-3 Under team in the Totals market heading in and LB Marcel Spears (above) and the Cyclones are tied for #11 in TO Margin at +1.0 TO per game.

 3—Georgia Tech 6-1-1 ATS (Last Week: #1)

Georgia Tech (4-4 SU, 6-1-1 ATS) suffered its first ATS Loss in Week 10 and falls two spots to #3 after losing outright as 10-point Road favorites at Virginia at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville last Saturday in tricky ACC play, 40-36, in a game which the Yellow Jackets led at Halftime (14-13), was tied after the 3rd Quarter (28-28) and saw the Cavaliers (9-1 ATS L10 vs GT at Home) out-score Georgia Tech 12-8 in the crucial 4th Quarter in a result that humbly sent the visitors back to the .500 mark at 4-4 (SU). Still, 10th-year Head Coach Paul Johnson (181-91 SU, 60-50-1 ATS at GT), QB TaQuon Marshall and the Yellow Jackets are a very profitable 10-1-1 ATS their L12 lined games. Next up for Georgia Tech (+6.0 against ATS) in Week 11, a big Home date against #21 Virginia Tech in Atlanta on Saturday at Bobby Dodd Stadium (Grass) in a series which has seen the Hokies go 3-0 ATS the L3 on the Road and a very tough scheduling date for both teams and almost a must-win for the visitors (VT -2½, 50).


4—Notre Dame 7-2-0 ATS (Last Week: #3)

Touchdown Jesus stubbed his holy toe in Week 10, as Brandon Wimbush as Notre Dame stayed thick in the heart of the CFP Playoffs race but cost its bettors money at the betting windows, beating Wake Forest in South Bend, 48-37, but failing to cover ATS as big closing 15½- to 16½-point Home Favorites. The Fighting Irish (+1.3 TO Margin, #4) looked like they were going to get the butter, leading big 31-10 at halftime, but a late Demon Deacons 90-yard drive and 2-yard TD run with 48 seconds to go turned an 18-point margin (48-30) into an 11-point difference and the backdoor was happily used by Wake Forest to cover ATS.

Next up for Notre Dame (+11.4 ppg vs ATS), a Week 11 showdown at #7 Miami versus the Hurricanes (31.5 ppg) and a game which will probably jettison the loser from the CFP Playoff conversation. Oddsmakers have made WR Chase Claypool and #3 Notre Dame (+1925) 3-point Favorites over Miami (60/1) at Hard Rock Stadium (Grass) in Miami Gardens on Saturday (ABC, 8 pm EST/5 pm PST) and the proudly Independent Fighting Irish (+11.4 ppg vs ATS) will head in against the Hurricanes (+1.3 TO Margin, Tied #4), averaging 6.6 ypp on Offense (#13), 495.1 ypg overall (#13) and 41.3 ppg in Scoring (#7), but Defense, TO’s and Field Position will likely determine the winner of this can’t miss game from the Sunshine State. The oddsmakers got this right. Lean Irish (+1.3 TO Margin, Tied #4) and Over (57).


5—Eastern Michigan 7-2-0 ATS (Last Week: Not ranked)

The race for the #5 spot was close, with Buffalo, UAB, Marshall, Ohio (41.2 ppg, #8 FBS), Texas, Rutgers, Buffalo and always underappreciated Wake Forest (15-6 ATS L21) all a profitable 7-2 ATS and Central Florida still deserving respect in this little corner of Cyberspace at 6-2 ATS, but the MAC West’s Little Engine That Could, Eastern Michigan (3-6 SU, 7-2 ATS) gets the nod by virtue of a splendid 17-5 ATS run its L22 lined games (77.3%) after 4th-year Head Coach Chris Creighton (25-18-1 ATS) went 9-3 ATS in the 2016 Regular Season and a Bowl game against Old Dominion and covered its last game of the 2015 Regular Season (CMU). In Week 10, the Eagles soared to another ATS Win, rolling 56-14 as monster 25-point Home favorites last Tuesday, ending a 6-game SU EMU Losing Streak but getting the cheese for the 5th time in the L6 games. Winning is important for us, but covering ATS is the whole point of this more-than intellectual pursuit.

The Week 11 slate shows Eastern Michigan (+5.1 vs. ATS) will be at Central Michigan on Wednesday night and Kelly/Shorts Stadium (FieldTurf) in a chilly Mt. Pleasant, Michigan for some mid-week MACtion (ESPNU, 8 pm ET/5 pm PST) and a series which has seen the Chippewas go 15-10 SU since 1992 but 0-2 ATS the L2 meetings, including a 26-21 Loss at EMU last season as 1-point chalks. CMS will head in on a 2-game SU/ATS Win Streak after winning outright as 4-point Underdogs at rivals Western Michigan, 35-28 and clobbering Ball State in Muncie in Week 9, 56-19, and easily getting the money as small 3-point Road Favorites. So what have we learned? Bet against Letterman U and the Cardinals (L5 SU/ATS outscored 256-46) maybe? Perhaps Ball State (2-6-1 ATS) are ratty enough to make The Top 5 Rat List? Nope.


Top 5 College Football ATS Rats1—Florida State 0-7-1 ATS (Last Week: #1)

And then there was one. One team in FBS who hadn’t won its backers money betting on them or lost for their faders betting against them...Florida State. The Seminoles have had a nightmare season, starting with the Opener and the Deondre Francois injury in the 4th Quarter against #1 Alabama and finding a groove has been nearly impossible for this ACC team many thought might challenge for the 2018 CFP championship. But starting QBs get hurt in College Football and the NFL, and dreams of dream seasons quickly turn to mind dust with torn ACLs and Rotator cuffs and the broken bones that come with this violent and lightning-fast game. In Week 10, Florida State didn’t cover ATS again in a 27-24 win over Syracuse last Saturday in Tallahassee in a game which saw the hosts open as 5½-point chalks on Sunday and be bet down to as low as 3½ (YouWager) in the first 24 hours of betting and then close at 6½ on late-week Offshore Florida State money.

This weekend, the Seminoles are at #4 Clemson on Saturday at Clemson Memorial Stadium (Grass) in Clemson, SC (CLEM -16, 46, BookMaker) and the Trends reveal that Head Coach Jimbo Fisher (46-48-7 ATS) and the ATS King Rat Seminoles (+500) to be 3-1 ATS the L4 in this series but that was with a healthy and experienced (and even a Heisman Trophy-winning) QBs. With Florida State (2-5 SU, 0-7-1 ATS) losing outright at Boston College in Week 9 and SU Losses as ATS Favorites against NC State in Week 3 (-11, lost 27-21), Louisville in Week 7 (-6½, lost 31-28) and Boston College in Week 9 (-6, lost 35-3), this is a downtrodden Noles team that can’t wait for this season to end and for the 2018 Regular Season to come. But getting 16? This may be FSU’s (-1.25 TO Margin, #124 FBS) first ATS win.


2—Western Kentucky 1-7-1 ATS (Last Week: Not ranked)

Western Kentucky has played -6.9 ppg under the posted Point Spreads and the Hilltoppers return to our little list and have now L3 straight ATS after a 31-17 SU and ATS Loss (WKU +10½) at SEC side Vanderbilt (where my cousin Randy was once the wedge-buster) in Week 10 last Saturday in a result that broke a string of 3 straight WKU Overs. After having such a nice 2016 (11-3 SU, 7-6 ATS), the Hilltoppers find themselves at 5-4 SU and looking at falling to .500 with a Week 11 Loss at Marshall on Saturday  as it returns to Conference USA play at Joan C. Edwards Stadium (FieldTurf) in Huntington, WV. The Thundering Herd are a profitable 7-2 ATS this season but the series Trends reveal Western kentucky to be a perfect 3-0 ATS the L3 meetings, including a 60-6 ass-whomping in the last game of the 2016 Regular Season (WKU -28). A tough game to handicap. Marshall has played 3 straight Road Unders (CHAR, MTSU, FAU) but all three meetings in this newfound C-USA series have gone Over the Total (48) with 133 (yes Ma’am), 77 and 66 points having been scored. Hide the women and children.

 3—Hawai’i 2-6-1 ATS (Last Week: #4)

Hawai’i (3-5 SU, 2-6-1 ATS) covered its first two games this 2017 Regular Season (UMASS, FCS WEST CAR), proceeded to L6 straight ATS and then Pushed getting 8 points here in Las Vegas against UNLV in Week 10 and with a 2-6 ATS mark to end the 2016 Regular Season, the Golden Rainbows have gone a money-burning 4-12-1 ATS their L17 games (25%) and haven’t covered a Home game in Honolulu since a Week 5 win over Nevada early last season. Hawaii will host Fresno State on Saturday night in Week 11 from Aloha Stadium (Field Turf) in Honolulu (11 pm/8 pm PT) in a MWC game which currently (Monday night) sees the Bulldogs as solid 10-point Road Favorites at most sportsbooks (52½, JustBet).

With Fresno State (6-3 SU, 6-2-1 ATS) sitting at 4-1 SU and in 1st place in the Mountain West West Division ahead of 2nd-place San Diego State (4-2 in MWC), expect the Travel, Time Difference and Site not to matter too much to Fresno State who will find itself in the unfamiliar role of a Road Favorite, only the second time in the L3 seasons the Bulldogs have been Road chalks with a Week 6 Push at San José State as 17-point Favorites the lone representative (FRESNO ST 27 SJS 10). The rat-tastic Rainbow Warriors will head in on a 2-12-1 ATS run (14.3%) and are 1-5 ATS the L6 at Home against Fresno State. This seems like a good game to back QB Marcus McMaryion and the Bulldogs laying 10 with all the technical Trends and Motivation pointing toward the visitors.


4—Brigham Young 2-8-0 ATS (Last Week: #1)

BYU (2-8 SU/ATS) so wants off this Top 5 list—and Ball State and San José State honestly deserve to be on it—but the 20% ATS winning clip and injury to starting QB Tyler Mangum (Achilles’) keeps the Mormons here at #4, even after a Week 10 ATS cover as 10½-point Road Underdogs at Fresno State (48)—Head Coach Kalani Sitake (11-11 ATS) and the Cougars second straight ATS Win after going 0-8 ATS to start the season. Former MWC member BYU (-8.9 ppg vs ATS) comes here to Sin City on Friday night to face UNLV at Sam Boyd Stadium (Turf-Tech) on Saturday night (ESPNU, 10:30 pm ET/7:30 pm PT) in a series which has seen BYU go a dominating 13-2 the L15 and 6-0 ATS the L6 in Las Vegas (4-2 ATS). With the Rebels favored by 4 (Total 50), the Cougars (-15.0 Scoring Margin, #114) may make it three consecutive covers but BYU (-0.70 TO Margin, #112 FBS) will have to a better job protecting the pigskin than they have so far, especially with Mangum now done and dusted for the season.

 5—UCLA 2-7-0 ATS (Last Week: Not ranked)

Like King Rat Florida State, PAC-12 side UCLA (4-5 SU, 2-7 ATS) was expecting to have a decent season and maybe compete for the Conference crown and maybe a precious CFP Playoff spot if everything went right for 6th-year Head Coach Jim Mora Jr (31-33-1 ATS) and his Bruins, but like the Seminoles, 2017 has stink, stank, stunk for UCLA (6-18-1 ATS its L22 (25%), who last covered ATS on the Road (0-4 ATS Road in 2017) last season when then #22-ranked UCLA and QB Josh Rosen went to Corvallis and blanked Oregon State, 41-0, getting the cash as 16-point Road chalks.

This week, the Bruins (-6.4 ppg vs. ATS) have a game they can win, at Home at the Rose Bowl (Grass) in Los Angeles against Arizona State in a Pac-12 date which sees the Bruins slight 1-point Favorites (BookMaker) for the Saturday night game (PAC-12 Network, 9:30 pm EST/6:30 pm PST). The Bruins (L9-11 ATS) have been a solid Over team this 2017 Regular Season, with a 7-2 Over record and a 5-0 Over mark on the road where the Bruins have been ATS dung (0-5 on Road in 2016). The Sun Devils are 5-4 SU and 5-3-1 ATS and have gone 3-1 ATS the L4 in this Pac-12 South series, winning and covering last season at Home in sunny Tempe, 23-20 (UCLA -7). The Bruins will head in with backup Devon Modster at QB after starter Josh Rosen suffered a Concussion in a Week 10 Loss at Utah last weekend in a costly game for the visitors who saw DL Ainuu (Kneecap, ACL, MCL), WR Darren Andrews (ACL) and LB Kris Barnes (Fluid in Lungs) all have to leave the game hurt.


Free NCAAF Pick: Fresno State -10 Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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