This article is for week 11 - please see our week 12 college football opening lines and picks here.
The 2021 college football season has been profitable thus far, and Week 11 offers four opening lines that are must plays. Consider these your four core picks for Week 11.
Week 10 of the 2021 season had a few shocking moments and terrific battles. This season continues to bring a ton of upsets at an unprecedented rate. We've never seen so many top-25 teams lose to unranked teams in college football history.
That might continue in Week 11. With MACtion in full swing and key conference battles continuing, we're really hitting the lines hard. This is our last push before bowl season.
With the last quarter of the season here, it's time to scour the trends and advanced numbers to find advantages. I can't recall another season as difficult to predict, so it's best to be judicious with your bets. Let's dive in.
Here’s a look at my top-four picks centered around the early Week 11 college football lines and odds (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale):
Georgia State vs. Coastal Carolina Opening Line and Pick
Date/Time: Saturday, November 13, 2 p.m. ETTV: ESPN+Location: Brooks Stadium, Conway, SC
Opening Line: Coastal Carolina -8.5
This spread has already seen movement from 8.5 to 10, so jump on this quickly before it swells more. It's easy to see why there's optimism the Chanticleers will cover against a Panthers squad with a 6-3 ATS mark; their offense is downright dominant and basically unstoppable. The sixth-ranked scoring offense is completing 71.8 percent of its passes and rushing for 6.0 yards per carry.
Meanwhile, the Panthers have a bottom-25 passing defense and below-average scoring and rushing defense. Their offense is even worse, outside of the rushing attack. I don't expect the Chanticleers to run up the score but they can replicate their 28-8 win over Georgia Southern from this past week.
PICK: Coastal Carolina -10 (-110) ????
Georgia vs. Tennessee Opening Line and Pick
Date/Time: Saturday, November 13, 3:30 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
Opening Line: Georgia -20.5
There's not a more dominant defense in the nation from the past few seasons than Georgia's. The Bulldogs have allowed 59 total points on the year, and 10 or more points in a game just three times. They're constricting on everyone they face and the only reason they haven't covered in three of their nine games was that the offense couldn't reach lofty heights.
However, the 20.5-point line isn't lofty at all. It's unlikely Tennessee even gets to 10 points this week even after hanging 45 against Kentucky in Week 10. If that holds true, Georgia should absolutely be able to win in a 31-10 fashion if need be. The Volunteers aren't nearly physical enough to challenge the Bulldogs.
PICK: Georgia -20.5 (-110) ????
Purdue vs. Ohio State Opening Line and Pick
Date/Time: Saturday, November 13, 3:30 p.m. ETTV: ABCLocation: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
Opening Line: Ohio State -20
Ohio State has a solid but very young team that has suffered from a nervous quarterback who struggles reading the field. While the Buckeyes are on pace to reach the College Football Playoff, this week's battle against a Purdue team that has beaten then-No. 2 Iowa and then-No. 3 Michigan State already is an obvious trap game. It's shocking to see Ohio State with a 20-point advantage here.
Purdue has two top-15 NFL talents in WR David Bell and DE George Karlaftis and that's enough headlining talent to pull yet another top-four upset on the year. I don't think Purdue wins with backup QB Aidan O'Connell and a struggling rushing game, but the Boilermakers are feisty. I like the visitors to stay uncomfortably close with Ohio State like Nebraska did.
PICK: Purdue +20 (-105) ???
Colorado vs. UCLA Opening Line and Pick
Date/Time: Saturday, November 13, 9 p.m. ETTV: Pac-12 NetworkLocation: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
Opening Line: UCLA -15
Some of the shine has certainly worn off for UCLA head coach Chip Kelly's 2021 campaign. His 3-1 start seems so long ago, as back-to-back losses to Oregon and Utah revealed this team still doesn't have anywhere near the needed trench talent to compete at a high level in the Pac-12. What it doesn't mean, though, is the Bruins are unworthy of betting on each week.
The Buffaloes are next up after a solid win and cover against Oregon State last week. UCLA matches up extremely well here, boasting a huge advantage on the ground against Colorado's poor rush defense. UCLA's big weakness, its 120th-ranked pass defense, should be able to withstand Colorado's 127th-ranked passing offense as it covers this two-score line.
PICK: UCLA -15 (-110) ????
SEE ALSO: All College Football Odds and Lines
Picks made 11/08/21 at 12:15 a.m. ET.