Week 11 College Football Early Line Moves Report

Kevin Stott

Monday, November 6, 2017 12:51 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 6, 2017 12:51 PM UTC

Let’s look at a preview for that Pac-12 showdown as well as two other of the heavier early Line-Movement games for this coming week—which again quickly begins on Tuesday night with MAC play—and also list the other lined College Football games where the number had moved at least 2 points and offer up a pick or two where they might be warranted.

The Sharps jumped all over #9 Washington quickly against host Stanford this coming Saturday in Week 11, moving an opening Washington minus-5½ points spread quickly to 8 and then up to 9 before the number settled back around 6½ when Offshore sportsbook BetOnline posted its Opening FBS lines on Sunday afternoon. 

NCAAF Week 11 Sees Sharps Backing Washington Early at Stanford This Saturday

The 11th week of College Football will see that majority of its pivotal games played on the 11th day (Saturday) of the 11th month (November) where 11 players on each side of the football will look to keep alive any respective Conference, Bowl and/or College Football Playoff (CFP) hopes alive as the Wins start to carry more weight and the Losses at this crucial point in the 2017 FBS Regular Season, eliminating respective teams from reaching those aforementioned loftier goals, although making a Bowl game these days requires much less great accomplishments and quality Won-Loss Records than days gone by when the four main Bowl games (Sugar, Cotton, Rose, Orange) were all played on New Year’s Day and then old writers would determine a (theoretical) No. 1 team in the most ridiculous way, to eventually crown a champion possible—off the field and without players or teams and in chairs with writers and newspapers without a football. Bring out your Dumb.

So thank you to the progress of the CFP Playoffs, but four teams is just not enough brother—have you ever ordered a “Small” pizza?—and 16 would be too damn many, so the sooner this wonderful CFP Postseason idea gets to 8 teams and then stays there, the better. There will be at least eight very good teams not making the CFP Playoffs this time around, so hopefully the “Adopt, Adapt, Improve” mentality will continue and the 13-member CFP Selection Committee will one day have an easier and less guilt-ridden job as who in their right mind would want to tell Head Coach Scott Frost, QB McKenzie Milton (career-high 412 Passing yards vs SMU) and a potentially unbeaten Central Florida (8-0) that it’s not invited to the big party?

Early Sharp money also created a Favorite-flip for a huge SEC showdown with CFP implications in Week 11, with Georgia money making the Bulldogs as high as 2½-point chalks (BetOnline) early on after #12 Auburn had opened 1-point Favorites for their game on Saturday (mini-preview below) and the biggest early move after the Washington-Stanford swing and then buyback was a 4-point move in the MWC game between Nevada and paltry San José State on Saturday, with Wolf Pack money driving an opening 17-point spread (-115, BetOnline) all the way up to 20½ in less than 120 minutes on the betting board (mini-preview below).

Taking a gander at the NCAA Football Week 11 odds after the first initial wave of Sharp betting on Sunday, most games moved 1½ points in the first 15 minutes or so before settling except for the Washington-Stanford game we’ll talk about below which saw a 3½-point move up (from 5½ to 9 -115) on quick and heavy Huskies money then back down to 6½ after some Stanford buyback action. Florida Atlantic also saw a significant (+2½ points) early move as Sharps thought they were wise betting the Owls from their opening minus-3 (-115, BetOnline) up to 5½ (-115) for their Conference USA meeting at Louisiana Tech on Saturday afternoon before the line seemed to settle in at 4½ an hour later. Early money on Missouri—which blew out Florida in SEC play in Week 10—drove an 8-point Opening Point Spread up to (Missouri minus) 10 (-115, BetOnline) for the Tigers Saturday date with Tennessee at Memorial Stadium (FieldTurf) in Columbia, while the sharps also backed #8 TCU in their Big 12 showdown with Baker Mayfield and #6 Oklahoma on Saturday, moving an (Oklahoma minus) 8 line down 1½ points to 6½ (-1115, BetOnline) in a game with massive Big 12 Conference and CFP Playoff implications.

Here are some of the bigger early (Side) NCAA Football games for Week 11 games which saw Point Spread moves of 3 points or more after the numbers were released on Sunday (Nov. 5) with in-depth analysis of three of the bigger Line Movement games. Underdogs went 32-29 ATS in Week 10 of NCAA College Football while Unders saw their return to prominence (33-27-1) after a one-week burp in the Totals market. SU Favorites went 42-19 this past week while Home teams went 40-21 SU and 33-28 ATS (54.1%), barely scraping out a profit compared to the sports betting break-even point of 52.4%.

NCAAF Week 11 Early Movers

Friday, November 10, 2017
🔺 Washington (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) opened up at -5½ (BetOnline), was quickly bet to 8, then to 9 (-115) minutes later on early Huskies money and then back down to as low as 6½ (5Dimes) in the first 2 hours of good two-way action trading on Sunday for their Pac-12 Saturday showdown against Stanford at Stanford Stadium (Grass) in Palo Alto, California on Friday night (FS1, 10:30 pm ET/7:30 pm PT. Why? The Sharps obviously like the chances of QB Jake Browning and Washington (55/1 to win 2018 CFP Playoffs, BookMaker) here against a Stanford (6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) side who’s out of the race(s) now, even after seeing RB Bryce Love (16 Rushes, 69 yards, TD, 4.3 ypc) return to the fold for the Cardinal at Washington State in a game that saw #25 Wazoo prevail in Week 10 in Pulliam, 24-21 thanks to a 4th Quarter TD. And with Stanford QB KJ Costello going just 9-for-20 for just 105 yards (0 TDs, 1 INT), so the early money has to think hosts Stanford—whose Offense lost a telling average of 12 ppg and 68 ypg from 2015 to 2016—will continue having trouble throwing the football here and may head towards a too one-dimensional of Offense. In short, the early money thinks Washington knows Stanford will have to run Love and establish the rush, something the Huskies won’t be scared of.

The Sharps also are obviously hip to the fact that Washington possesses the #1 Total Defense in FBS (240.9 ypg), with the Huskies allowing just 3.71 ypp, 8 Offensive TDs and 11 Opposition TDs heading in here, meaning any yards Love gets on the ground on Friday night he will earn. And the Motivation of still being in the CFP Playoffs hunt will also be a factor here, with the Huskies, like last season, still in a position where they can “move on up” like the Jefferson should teams like Clemson, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, TCU, Wisconsin, UCF and falter and lose at some point down the deceivingly lengthy College Football homestretch. The Trends in this series also support the money-move with Washington 4-1 ATS the L5 meetings including an ATS cover last season as a 3½-point Home Favorite in Seattle in a 44-6 smooshing of Stanford in Week 4 of the 2016 Regular Season. This one could get ugly, even in Palo Alto and this seems like it’s smart money (up to 10) with one’s team’s season really starting right now and the other’s looking like it ended in Week 10.

Saturday, November 11, 2017
🔺 Host Auburn opened -2 (BetOnline) Favorites against #2-ranked Georgia, but early money on Nick Chubb and Georgia made the Bulldogs the game’s Favorites now, with a 2½ showing at BetOnline for the huge SEC showdown on Saturday afternoon from Jordan-Hare Stadium (Grass) in Auburn, Alabama (CBS, 3:30 pm ET/12:30 pm PT). Why? Sharps know Georgia (38/1 to win 2018 CFP Playoffs, BetDSI) is in the hunt for one of the four CFP Playoff spots and will want to go into a potential SEC Championship game unbeaten, so the committee may still grant a 1-loss Bulldogs team a spot with a theoretical loss to #1 Alabama. Auburn (8/1 to win SEC Conference, Heritage) would have been the Favorite here if not for the Momentum and get Defense Georgia has played and the farther we go down the 2017 FBS road, the more Georgia’s little 1-point, 20-19 Win at Notre Dame in Week 3 looms large.

With the Bulldogs and and the Tigers (7-2 SU) so good Defensively—Georgia ranks #4 in Total Defense (354.1 ypg) while Auburn ranks #14 (307.2 ypg)—expect both teams to try to run the ball early with Chubb leading the way for the unbeaten Dawgs and Auburn looking to the very capable RB Kerryon Johnson (868 Rushing yards, 15 TDs, 5.2 ypc) with usual starter Kam Pettway injured lately. The Trends in this high-profile SEC series reveal that Georgia is 3-0 ATS the L3 meetings with Auburn (GEO 13-7 AUB, AUB 13-20 GEO, GEO 34-7 AUB), outscoring HC Gus Malzahn’s Plainsmen, 67-27 in the process with Auburn TDs coming at a premium.

Saturday, November 11, 2017
🔺 Nevada (1-8 SU, 4-5) opened up 17-point chalks and were bet up to as high as -20½ against ratty San José State for their upcoming Week 10 MWC game from Reno on Saturday (ESPN3, 4 pm ET/1 pm PT) and Mackay Stadium (FieldTurf) with Sharps obviously fading a very bad Spartans team which was absolutely pummeled by San Diego State in Week 10 in a game which saw the Aztecs take their foot off the gas pedal in the 4th Quarter on Saturday in San Diego. With San José State 3-6-1 ATS, bettors have made money fading this team and wanted the best number, knowing there will likely be little action, Sharp or Public, on the Spartans who are 1-9 SU with their lone triumph coming over FCS side Cal Poly in Week 2, 34-13.

So SJSU will head to The Biggest Little City in the World on a nasty 7-game SU slide (1-5-1 ATS) and with the Trends showing Nevada a profitable 3-1 ATS the L4 against the anemic Spartans—although SJSU won at Home last season in a 14-10 game which saw Nevada come in a 2-point Road chalks—backing QB Ty Gangi (1,864 Passing yards), WR Wyatt Demps (619 Receiving yards, 51 Receptions, 8 TDs, 12.1 yoc) and Nevada is the only look here and this one should be a high-scoring affair with at least 2x as many points (maybe from the Wolf Pack) as last season’s 24-point yawner in the Golden State. Nevada should win this game by 25 or more, thus the early movement and depending on where this line settles, backing the Wolf Pack in the 1st Half marketplace may prove to be an easier ride.

Other NCAAF Week 11 Early Movers

Saturday, November 11, 2017

🔻 UNLV opened -6 vs. Byu (Friday), wagered down 2 points to -4 (5Dimes)
🔺 #16 PENN STATE opened -28 vs Rutgers, bet up 3 points to -31
🔺 #15 Southern Cal opened -10½ at COLORADO, bet up 3 to -13½
🔺 NORTH TEXAS opened -21 vs Utep, bet up 2½ to -23½
🔺 TEXAS opened -31 vs. Kansas, bet up 2 to -33
🔺 FIU opened -7 vs. Old Dominion, wagered up 3 to -10
🔻 Tulane opened -7 at EAST CAROLINA, wagered down 2 to -5
🔺 MISSOURI opened -8 vs. Tennessee, wagered up 2½ -10½
🔺 ARIZONA opened -19 vs Oregon State, wagered up 4 points to -23

All games in Board rotation order with HOME TEAMS in CAPS

NCAAF WEEK 10 CURRENT HIGHEST SPREAD—Texas -33 vs Kansas (BookMaker)
BIGGEST MOVERS—Georgia 🔺 4½-point move from Open 2-point Underdog to a 2½-point Favorite at Auburn, ARIZONA 🔺 4-point move up from Open -19 to -23 vs. Oregon State
FAVORITE-FLIP—#12 AUB opened -2 vs #1 Georgia, went to +2½ (BetOnline)

Free NCAAF Picks on the Early Line Movement:  Georgia -2.5 (-2) over Auburn & Nevada -20 (-102) over San José State 
Best Lines Offered: Pinnacle

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