Week 10 Top College Football Picks

Willie Bee

Friday, October 31, 2014 2:31 PM GMT

Bring out your dead! The first day of November could be the death knell for several teams, and we've got previews plus free college football picks for a few of the big games.

They didn't name it Dia de los Meurtos for nothing, baby. Those Mayan dudes, or whoever thought of it, foresaw this Saturday's college football betting schedule, and knew this was going to be the death of a few teams.

In the span of about an hour, give or take a few ticks, three teams that face a potential death sentence kick their games off. Our first game on the list, in fact, guarantees a death sentence for one of the teams.

 

Auburn Tigers vs. Mississippi Rebels
Pretty simple math for the clash between the Auburn Tigers and Mississippi Rebels: The winner between the third and fourth teams, respectively, on the College Football Playoff rankings will get an immediate leg up over all other 1-loss teams, and the loser can forget about being part of the gridiron version of the Final Four.

ESPN will carry the contest starting at 7 PM (ET), and Ole Miss is 2 point chalk after starting -3 on SBR's live college football odds, the total moving up a couple of points from the opener to 51 points.

Ole Miss is coming off its first setback of the season a week ago in a defensive struggle at LSU. Hugh Freeze and his staff now have to get their kids to forget about that all while preparing for a very good Auburn bunch, and that won't be easy.

Another factor in why I like the Tigers in this matchup is a Rebels defense that is riddled with injuries and could be missing three very key components. Linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche broke an ankle in the loss at LSU and will miss the rest of the season, while his brother Robert suffered an undisclosed injury and is questionable along with starting safety Cody Prewitt. Robert Nkemdiche and Prewitt did make it back to practice by midweek, but their status remains up in the air.

The game should be played under good weather conditions, a bit of autumnal crisp in the air with temps in the mid-to-upper 40s at kickoff. I'm not even sure we need any points since I expect an outright win by Auburn, but I'll sure take 'em with my free college football pick on the visiting Tigers.

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Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Fifteen minutes later about 94 miles south, Mississippi State puts its top ranking on the line against the Arkansas Razorbacks. ESPN2 begins its coverage of the contest at 7:15 PM (ET), and the Bulldogs are -10½, that spread bet down from the -12 starter.

Likewise, SBR's live NCAA football odds have followed the total as it slipped 3½ points from the opener to 61.

Part of the reason for the line movement is Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott wearing a walking boot this week after injuring his foot in last week's 45-31 win at Kentucky. He's officially listed as probable, and I expect Prescott, Josh Robinson and the rest of the Bulldog offense to be ready to go.

Despite sitting 0-4 in SEC matchups, Arkansas still presents a danger to Mississippi State; I still like the Bulldogs to get the win, but I'm more interested in the total for my free college football pick than the spread. Let's play this one 'over' the mark.

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Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Kansas State Wildcats
We land in the Little Apple for our final matchup, and the Kansas State Wildcats have an opportunity to style points in the Big 12 on the Horned Frogs with TCU facing a tough roadie at West Virginia. Kansas State will be hosting the Oklahoma State Cowboys in ABC's nationally televised 8 PM (ET) game, and action on OSU has pushed the 'Cats down to 11½ point favorites with 52 for the total.

The Cowboys have already fooled me twice this year, and have looked like a team in great need of a heart transplant the past two weeks, especially on offense. The K-State defense, meanwhile, just blanked the Texas Longhorns while the offense played error-free football for a 2nd-straight week.

The weatherman is calling for a breezy evening at Bill Snyder Family Stadium with winds from the southeast at 17-20 mph, and that could lead to 60 minutes of field position football for this one. Kansas State should roll the Cowboys, but once again the total looks safer for my free college football pick and I'll be betting the low side of that number.

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College Football Picks: Auburn +2; Arkansas-Mississippi St. Over 61; Oklahoma St-Kansas St. Under 52
Season: 42-27-1 (+12.30)