Week 10 Top 5 ATS Cats and Rats: Georgia Tech New Top Cat, Florida State New King Rat

Georgia Tech

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, October 31, 2017 1:22 PM GMT

Tuesday, Oct. 31, 2017 1:22 PM GMT

Fresno State and BYU—who actually play this Saturday in Week 10 in Fresno—have quickly been replaced as our Top ATS Cat and Top ATS Rat by the ACC’s Georgia Tech and Florida State, because, like in nature, we expect the cats to eat the rats...but it doesn’t always work out that way.

Top 5 College Football ATS Cats Rankings (October 31, 2017) 1—Georgia Tech 6-0-1 ATS (Last Week: #3)

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3187762, "sportsbooksIds":[180,1096,19,1275,139], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

The ACC’s Georgia Tech is now the lone team in the land without an ATS Loss after its 24-10 loss at Clemson in Week 9, Pushing ATS as a 14-point Underdog in Death Valley. And anyone betting on College Football teams coached by Paul Johnson through the years knows that this is a man who gets the little things right and doesn’t like having a football team that beats itself. With the pretty-looking 6-0-1 ATS Record so far this year, the 60-year-old, 10th-year Johnson is now 181-90 SU and a profitable 60-49-1 ATS as a Head Coach. And with 4 straight ATS covers to end the 2016 season—including a SU/ATS Win against Kentucky in its Bowl game—the Yellow Jackets are 10-0-1 ATS their L11 lined games. Next up for Georgia Tech (+8.5 against ATS) in Week 10, a visit to Virginia on Saturday afternoon (CBS, 3 pm ET/12 pm PDT) and Scott Stadium (Grass) in a game which sees the Yellow Jackets as current 10-point Favorites (5Dimes) after opening at 9½ on Sunday with a Total of 49.

Looking at Totals results between these two teams, 'Unders' have gone 5-2 for Georgia Tech (2-0 Road) while Unders are 5-3 in Cavaliers games so far. Virginia has scored just 44 points in its L3 games (20, 10, 14), but the 10-point line seems a bit high in the context of what it might have been before the season started and the Trends show Georgia Tech Georgia Tech to be an abhorrent 1-8 ATS the L9 at Charlottesville and 2-10 ATS the L12 in this series dating back to 1992. For those thinking host Virginia could possibly win this game outright, the Cavs are +321 on the Moneyline (Pinnacle, GT -380).

 

2—Iowa State 7-1-0 ATS (Last week: Not ranked)

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3187757, "sportsbooksIds":[180,1096,19,1275,139], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

Welcome back to the Cats’ List to Iowa State (7-0 SU/ATS) whose lone ATS Loss this 2017 Regular Season came to catty-candidate Texas (7-1-0 ATS) in Week 4 in a 17-7 Home setback which saw the Cyclones head in as 5-point Home Underdogs. And that’s been the only blip for 2nd-year Head Coach Matt Campbell (14-5 ATS) who has a wonderful start ATS as Iowa State (73.7%) after going 7-4 ATS in his first year in Ames in 2016 (3-9 SU in 2016). In Week 9, Iowa State (+15.0 vs. ATS) broke TCU’s dreams of a CFP run, winning 14-7 at Home in Jack Trice Stadium as 7-point Home Underdogs in the Cyclones third straight Under and 4th straight ATS cover. And it’ll be a clash of an Under team in Iowa State (Unders 5-3) and WV (Overs 7-1) in Week 10 against West Virginia in Big 12 play at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium (FieldTurf) in Morgantown Saturday (ESPN2, 3:30 pm ET/12:30 pm PT).

The Trends show the 6-3 (SU) Mountaineers are 3-0 ATS the L3 vs. Iowa State, outscoring the Cyclones 114-49 (ISU 19-WV 49, WV 30-6 ISU, ISU 24-37) but Big 12 Defensive Player of the Week Marcel Spears and Iowa State (+1.10 TO Margin per game, Tied #10) have really surprised this season and have already cut its teeth on some really tough competition (OKLAHOMA, TEXAS, TT, TCU). Solid lean to a higher-scoring game here (61½, BookMaker) and the Totals market may be a better option than a side with West Virginia (-2½ -115, 5Dimes) theoretically “needing” the game more than Iowa State with the Mountaineers already having two Big 12 Losses (TCU, OK-ST). This will be a tough Site for the Cyclones to try to control Pace and an OT period (or two) seems like a remote possibility.

 

3—Notre Dame 7-1 ATS (Last Week: #4)

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3187478, "sportsbooksIds":[180,1096,19,1275,139], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

Touchdown Jesus continues to ascend up the list after Brandon Wimbush, Josh Adams and Notre Dame defeated #14 NC State in Week 9 last Saturday, 35-14 in South Bend in a game which saw the now 5th-ranked Fighting Irish as 7-point Home chalks (BookMaker). After a 1-point Loss at Georgia in Week 2 at Home in South Bend (ND -5½), 8th-year Head Coach Brian Kelly (45-45-4 ATS) and Notre Dame have recovered quite nicely. The Independent Fighting Irish—who average 6.5 ypp on Offense (7.1 ypp per Rush)—who despite not residing in a Power Five conference, definitely deserve to be a part of the conversation as a CFP Playoffs team at this point in time with a Nov. 11 date at Miami (Florida) likely being the do-or-die day, along with the Regular Season finale at Stanford in Week 14 (Nov. 25).

Next up in Week 10 for WR Equanimeous St. Brown and Notre Dame (+13.4 ppg vs ATS), underrated Wake Forest at Home in South Bend at Notre Dame Stadium (FieldTurf) on Saturday afternoon (NBC, 3:30 pm ET/12:30 pm PT)in a game which sees the Demon Deacons (5-2 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) as big 13½-point Road Underdogs in a game which honestly seems Wake Forest could pull off the upset if everything goes right (WF +425 Moneyline, 5Dimes, ND -550), but that will probably mean having to win the Turnover (TO) battle, a facet of the game at which Notre Dame has really thrived, with a thief-like TO Margin average of +1.4 per game (#6 in FBS).

 

4—Central Florida 5-1-1 ATS (Last Week: #2)

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3188049, "sportsbooksIds":[180,1096,19,1275,139], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

Sorry Charlie, but even an Added Game non-ATS cover loses money and can trash a perfectly good Parlay (and send a confused cat running), and that’s what No. 15 Central Florida (5-0-1 SU/ATS) did to me on Saturday, crushing FCS side Austin Peay, 73-33, but losing ATS thanks in great part to a 19-point Governors 2nd Quarter in a game which was 52-26 at Halftime. So, even though the Knights have gotten off to the best start in the program’s history (7-0, 4-0 in AAC Conference play), losing ATS as 43½-point mega-chalks sendsUCF (+1.7 TO apg, #5) to the No. 4 spot with a Push against Navy in Week 8 (UCF 31-21, UCF -10) taken into consideration.

The Week 10 slate shows 2nd-year Head Coach Scott Frost (14-5-1 ATS)—the same profitability rate as aforementioned Iowa State HC Matt Campbell—and UCF (7.9 ypp #2 FBS) heading to Gerald J. Ford Stadium (FieldTurf) in Dallas on Saturday (ESPN2, WatchESPN, 7:15 pm ET/4:15 pm PT) to face SMU in a big AAC contest for the Knights and a game which sees the unbeaten visitors as healthy 13½ Road Favorites and a matchup which sees the Trends showing UCF to be 5-2 ATS the L7 meetings (6-1 SU). With UConn (Week 11) and Temple (Week 12) up next, it’s quite obvious the Regular Season finale against #16 South Florida (7-1 SU, 4-1 in AAC) at Home in Orlando (UCF 1-3 ATS L4 vs USF) could be the last thing between UCF and a perfect regular season. UCF ranks #5 in Total Offense (529.7 ypg).

 

5—Texas 7-1 ATS (Last Week: Not ranked)

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3187764, "sportsbooksIds":[180,1096,19,1275,139], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

Too bad, so sad, Fresno State (5-2 SU, 6-1-1 ATS), but when you lose SU at Home to UNLV as huge Home Favorites... Texas (4-4 SU, 7-1 ATS) gets the well-deserved crack at the Top 5 ATS Cats List, sliding in at #5 by virtue of the Longhorns consistent improved play this 2017 Regular Season and that lone ATS Loss to Maryland in Week 1, meaning 1st-year Tom Herman and Texas (3-2 SU in Big 12) have W7 straight ATS after the Longhorns 38-7 curb-stomping of devolving Baylor in Week 9, easily covering as 9½-point chalks in a third straight Under and 6th in the L7 Texas games.

Remember, this is the team that handed No. 2 Cat Iowa State its only ATS Loss and the Big 12’s Longhorns (+6.4 ppg against ATS) are much better than we all thought they would be, a little like the Philadelphia Eagles and the New Orleans Saints in the NFL (so far at least) this year. Next up for the Longhorns in Week 10, a game at TCU on Saturday (ESPN, 4:15 pm ET/1:15 pm PT) which sees the Horned Frogs as 7-point Favorites (-105, BetOnline) and a game in which you can take Texas on the Moneyline at +220 (5Dimes). Hook ‘em Horns? Yep, Hook ‘em Horns. Cattle are big, frogs are small.

Free College Football Picks: Central Florida -13½ & Texas +7Best Lines Offered: at Intertops

 

Top 5 College Football ATS Rats Rankings (October 31, 2017)1—Florida State 0-6-1 ATS (Last Week: #2)

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3187620, "sportsbooksIds":[169,93,1096,19,180], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

So Georgia Tech is the only FBS team without an ATS Loss and we’ve shown them some Love with a capital ‘L’, so it’s time to show some scorn to the only FBS team without an ATS Win, our new King Rat, Florida State (2-5 SU, 0-6-1 ATS), who locked down this spot by losing outright at Boston College on Friday in Week 9 as 6-point Favorites in a game that opened up at FSU -8 and saw the Sharps and Public both do very well as the Eagles set the tone early and led all the way in Beantown. Granted,the Seminoles did lose starting QB Deondre Francois to an Injury in its opening Loss to #1 Alabama, but this ACC team hasn’t won its betting backers a penny yet this Regular Season and impossible to ignore with SU Losses as ATS Favorites against NC State in Week 3 (-11, lost 27-21), Louisville in Week 7 (-6½, lost 31-28) and Boston College in Week 9 (-6, lost 35-3). So maybe no Bowl for Head Coach Jimbo Fisher and the Noles?

Next up for Florida State in Week 10, an ACC date with Syracuse in Tallahassee on Saturday (ESPN3, WatchESPN, 12:20 pm ET/9:20 am PT) in a game which saw the hosts open as 5½-point chalks on Sunday and be bet down to as low as 3½ in the first 24 hours of betting. The Trends reveal the Seminoles to be a profitable 4-1 ATS the L5 meetings, but this (Regular Season) is a low-point for FSU with that one play dictating the entire arc of the season in the blink of an eye. With Seminoles spirits down, the Orange could head into Doak Campbell Stadium (Grass) in Tallahassee this weekend and pull off the “upset” (SYR +155 Moneyline, WagerWeb). What can Orange do for you?

 2—Brigham Young 1-8-0 ATS (Last Week: #1)

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3187490, "sportsbooksIds":[169,93,1096,19,180], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

BYU (2-7 SU, 1-8 ATS) moved from King Rat to Prince Rat after Week 9, with San José State (3-5 ATS) handing the Cougars their first ATS Win, and QB Tyler Mangum and BYU deserved it, rolling to a 41-20 win over San José State in Week 9 this past Saturday at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo (BYU -9½, 50½) in a good result for the sportsbooks as BYU earned its first Win of the year against an FBS opponent. This week, 2nd-year Head Coach Kalani Sitake (10-11 ATS) and BYU (-10.3 ppg against ATS) head to Fresno State on Saturday to face the Bulldogs in a matchup which sees BYU priced at +495 on the Moneyline (Pinnacle) and the Trends find that visitors BYU (-15.0 Scoring Margin, #114) are 3-1 ATS the L4 meetings against Fresno State but in that span, the Cougars had better QBs and the Bulldogs were a much worse overall as a program. BYU ranks #115 in TO Margin, averaging -0.9 per game while Fresno State sits at +0.7 (#22).

 

3—Bowling Green 1-8-0 ATS (Last Week: Not ranked)

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3187987, "sportsbooksIds":[169,93,1096,19,180], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

MAC side Bowling Green (2-7 SU, 1-8 ATS) nobley returns to our rankings even though the Falcons were off enjoying a Bye in Week 9, with former Top 5 Rats Kansas (#3), North Carolina (#4) and East Carolina (#5 ) all notching their second ATS Wins in Week 9 play. The lowly Falcons rank #126 (of 129 teams) in Total Defense (523.3 ypg), #119 in Scoring Margin (-18.6) and Bowling Green (-6.6 ppg vs ATS) went 4-7 ATS in 2016 and are now a money-burning 3-10 ATS their L13 lined games. Next up on the schedule is a game tonight (Tuesday), at Kent State in MAC play and a game which sees these Falcons as 2-point Road Favorites after game opened up at a PK (50½).

The series Trends show Bowling Green is 3-1 ATS the L4 against the Golden Flashes with the Falcons romping 42-7 as small 2½-point Home Underdogs last season. Kent State is #128 in Point Differential (-27.1 ppg), so this one may be won (both SU and ATS) on bad start, a mistake, ar maybe a bad 4th Quarter and seems hard to find a solid handicapping angle. Because of the Tuesday primetime TV attraction, the Kent State-Bowling Green will likely be way over-bet.

 4—Hawaii 1-6-1 ATS (Last Week: Not ranked)

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3187996, "sportsbooksIds":[169,93,1096,19,180], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

Back again, Hawaii (3-5 SU, 1-6-1 ATS) lost outright and ATS to San Diego State on Saturday night at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu in Week 9 as 8½-point Home Underdogs, 28-7, falling to a woeful 4-17 ATS its L21 games at Home (19%), and climbing back into our Top 5 Rats rankings as 2nd-year Head Coach Nick Rolovich (7-13-1 ATS) and the Rainbow Warriors (-8.1 ppg ATS) lost their 6th straight game to the betting number. This week, Hawaii heads here to Sin City to face UNLV in Week 10 MWC play and sportsbooks Offshore currently have the Rebels (5-2 ATS) as 7½-point Home Favorites. Hawaii has allowed at least 26 points in 6 consecutive games, so looking at the Over (62, JustBet) may be worth the while. Series Trends show the two split at 8-8 SU the L16 meetings with Hawaii 7-5 ATS the L12 vs UNLV but 0-3 ATS the L3. The Rainbow Warriors head into this contest in Las Vegas on a dismal 2-11-1 ATS run (15.4%).

 

5—Ole Miss 1-6-1 ATS (Last Week: Not ranked)

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3187993, "sportsbooksIds":[169,93,1096,19,180], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

The Rebels edged out Western Kentucky (1-7-0 ATS) for this last spot because Ole Miss (-7.2 ppg ATS) has now gone 2-12-1 ATS its L15 on the betting board (14.3%) while the Hilltoppers were an impressive 16-6-2 ATS the L2 years heading into the 2017 Regular Season. In Week 9, SEC side Mississippi (467.5 ypg Total Defense, #116) lost as a 2½-point Home chalk to Arkansas, 38-37 as Ole Miss played its 5th straight Over and 7th in 8 games. This weekend, the Rebels head to Kentucky to face the Wildcats (2-6 ATS) on Saturday (SECN, 4 pm ET, 1 pm PT) in SEC play (KENTUCKY -3½, 63½, JustBet) and the series Trends show the hosts Kentucky to be 3-1 ATS the L4 meetings at Commonwealth Stadium (UBU Speed Series) in Lexington but 4-4 ATS the L8 since 1992. Kentucky has L4 straight ATS and 1-4 ATS at Home this miserable campaign. One of these two downtrodden SEC teams—a combined 3-12-1 ATS heading in—will get a deceiving SU (and ATS) Win here.

Free College Football Picks: Syracuse +4Best Line Offered: at Heritage
comment here