Wednesday's Line Moves With Significant Betting Value for Your College Football Picks

Chris Andrews

Wednesday, November 4, 2015 9:49 PM GMT

We look at the biggest college football line moves of the past 24 hours. It's quiet, but the Michigan State-Nebraska game is getting some play, as sportsbooks look for the right number for their college football odds.

College Football
323 BYU/324 San Jose State- Sharp money showed on BYU -12.5, the public was already on that side. Now up to -13.5.

 

377 Arizona/378 USC- Some sharp money came in on USC -17. The public was on that side, but maybe not quite as much as you might think. USC up to -18.5.

 

391 Wisconsin/392 Maryland- The public is on Wisconsin, which took the line from -12.5 to -13.5 on the college football odds board.  Sharp money came back on Maryland, who appears to be much improved after the firing of Randy Edsall. Wisconsin back to -12.5.

 

421 Michigan State/422 Nebraska- This isn’t moving right now in the big stores, where it’s still Michigan State -5.5. However, I had one person contact me today to tell me they had a small local out who was using Michigan State -7. Right now it looks like the biggest publicly bet side of the week. After spending years in Las Vegas and Reno, where you come into contact with people from all over the country, I see where local fans are the worst judge of their own teams when they are doing much better or much worse than how the team had been expected to perform.

This version of the Cornhuskers is WAY underperforming expectations. I had one Nebraska fan contact me and say he was betting his rent money on Michigan State. Nebraska had been one of the storied programs in college football, but not since Tom Osborne’s retirement a generation ago. Their fans seem to have not gotten the memo, however. Frank Solich had reasonable success as Osborne’s successor, but was canned after posting a 58-19 record in 6 years. Then they had Bill Callahan, which didn’t work, followed by Bo Pelini, who coached for 7 years and a 93-66 record. He was canned, too. Enter Mike Riley. Riley has been a good, but never great coach with 2 stints at Oregon State in between a short episode with the Chargers.

If hiring Mike Riley didn’t let them know the program what once was, I don’t know what would. Well, come to think of it, this might do it. Nebraska is 3-6 and it will take a few miracles to get bowl eligible. The fans are now betting their rent money against their own team. The team has lost its first 5 games by a total of 13 points. Then last week they lost by 10 to Purdue with a back up quarterback who threw 4 interceptions. They aren’t that bad. Now Nebraska’s starting quarterback returns this week. Can you tell who I like? I’m waiting, though. I would like to find that guy who’s using Mich State -7 with his college football picks.