Weather Conditions May Affect Your Week 6 NCAAF Picks

college football mud

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, October 7, 2017 12:56 PM GMT

Saturday, Oct. 7, 2017 12:56 PM GMT

The professional handicapper seeks every possible edge and reviewing weather reports is vital before getting down on his college football picks. Let's discuss the games on today's slate that could be impacted by inclement weather.  

Splish Splash

Fortunately, we are still far enough away from winter that snow is not a factor but that doesn't mean that thunderstorms and rain showers won't pop up around the country to turn a perfectly competitive game into a muddy, error-filled slog. Let's highlight those games where weather may play a role so that we can perhaps spot a weakness in the odds as we look to add this edge to our NCAAF picks.

 

12:00 PM ET Penn State vs. Northwestern

Keep your eyes on this game because the total is dropping like a rock. The oddsmakers opened this one up at Penn State -13 ½ with a total of 55 ½. However, the weather report is out and there is a 60 percent chance of rain late with wind gusts between 12-22 miles per hour. That will make the treading slow and the kicking game will have to contend with all kinds of shenanigans from Mother Nature. The Nittany Lions are still holding solid as 13 ½ point road chalk but the total is down to 50 ½ at shops like 5Dimes.

 

3:30 PM ET Minnesota vs. Purdue

This is another game that features a 60 percent chance of rain with wind ranging from 10-20 miles per hour. The difference between this game and the PSU vs. Northwestern tilt is that the rain may come late in that contest while the wet weather may manifest throughout at Ross-Ade Stadium. The total has dropped from an opener of 49 ½ to as low as 45 ½ as of this early Saturday morning writing while Purdue has gone from a pick'em to as high as a 3 ½ point home favorite over Minnesota. Watch that forecast and go shopping for a sharp number.

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7:30 PM ET Michigan State vs. Michigan

The sharp money appears to be pouring in on the Spartans as this road dog was getting a generous 13 points when the line opened but are now getting only 10 from offshore shops like 5Dimes. The only 10 ½ I spy among the majors is over at BetOnline so if you're inclined to grab the points later than you should have, I would advise you get over there as soon as possible. The total is dropping as well with the opener at 45 and now shops like BetDSI have it all the way down to 40. Here again, we see a 60 percent chance of shower storms and wind gusts predicted between 12-22 MPH.

If the reports begin to change and 60 percent rain turns to 40 percent make sure to pounce on a low total because it pays to be first when you have the information to take advantage of a weak number. The same obviously goes for all the games discussed in this report so keep your eyes on the skies and stay informed if you want to make smart wagers.

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