It was a bad College Football Week 11 for Indiana, Florida State, and Cincinnati as all three continued to lose to the betting number. Besides FSU, the Bearcats and the Hoosiers being Fade-worthy, let’s take a look at some other Bet-worthy things we learned in the last five days.
On Tuesday in Week 11, 6th-year Head Coach Terry Bowden (30-34-2 ATS) and Akron (5-5 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) lost 24-14 to Miami Ohio in a Mid-American Conference affair and the first game on the weekly betting board and the 9th Under in 10 Zips games this Regular Season. With a (Miami winning) 10-7 score at half, the under was well on its way in this one and a 21-point 2nd Half ensured Under bettors would again profit in Akron games. A deeper handicapping dive reveals that betting Zips Unders always has been a smart thing, with 15 Unders in the L17 Zips games (88.2%). Under Records in recent seasons (6-6 in 2016, 8-5 in 2015, 7-4-1 in 2014, 9-3 in 2013, 6-4-1 in 2012). From 2012 on, the Under in Akron games is a profitable 42-23-2 (64.6%) in the totals market. In Week 12, the Zips host Ohio (8-2 SU/ATS) in a huge game for the MAC East Division title at InfoCision Stadium on Tuesday night. Lean Under?2. Cincinnati Continues to Lose ATS at Home, Fall to 2-11 ATS L13 at Nippert Friday
Cincinnati (3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS) lost to Temple, 30-24 on Friday night as 3-point Underdogs in Week 11 American Athletic Conference East Division play. The Bearcats fell to 1-4 ATS at Home at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati in 2017 and to a nasty 2-11 ATS the L13 at Home there (15.4%) as the Owls—the best team against the number in the L10 years (88-57-1 ATS, 60.7%)—covered their 5th in the L6. Temple grabbed a 13-0 lead at Halftime in the Buckeye State and then were outscored by the Bearcats, 24-22 in the 2nd Half, but still got the money thanks to that +13 first 30 minutes. The next Home game for 1st-year Head Coach Luke Fickell (4-6 ATS) and Cincinnati comes in Week 13 in the Regular Season finale against Connecticut (5-1 ATS), a game in which the Bearcats covered ATS the last meeting in Cincinnati (2015), rolling to a comfortable 37-13 victory as 11-point chalks. Last year, Connecticut (3-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) won in East Hartford, 20-9, winning outright as 3-point Home Underdogs.3. Indiana Fade Material After ATS Road Loss to Illinois? Hoosiers Now an Anemic 5-11-1 ATS L17 Lined Games
Indiana (4-6 SU, 2-8 ATS) finally got its first Big Ten SU Win in Week 11, beating Illinois, 24-14 at Memorial Stadium in Champaign on Saturday, but the Hoosiers failed to cover ATS at most sportsbooks where 11 and 10½ were the predominant Point Spreads with outliers Bovada, Bodog and The Greek all closing at 10 for the game, meaning a Push for both Indiana and Illini Side backers there. Also, this game opened (Indiana minus) 8, so some very early Hoosiers money may have covered and with the 10-point difference in the Final Scoreline, a Middle (IND -8, -8½, -9—ILLINI +10½, +11, +11½) a possibility with the spread reaching 11½.
Indiana fell to an abysmal 5-11-1 ATS the L17 (31.3%) and 1-6 ATS the L7 Road games in Big Ten play and the only time the visitors were covering ATS came in the 2nd Quarter when Indiana took a 14-0 lead. The Hoosiers have now L7 straight ATS (PSU, FCS Charleston Southern, MICH, MSU, MARY, WIS, ILL) going from 2-1 ATS to 2-8 ATS and failing to cover ATS by 11, 1, ½, 1½, 9½, 15 and 1 in those 7 respective games, so 1st-year Head Coach Tom Allen (2-8 ATS) and his Crimson and Cream haven’t been the luckiest bunch either. The Hoosiers will welcome Rutgers to The Rock (Memorial Stadium) in Bloomington in Week 12 play (0-3 ATS L3) and will end the Regular Season at West Lafayette vs. intrastate rivals Purdue in the battle for the Old Oaken Bucket (Nov. 25). It's old. It's made of oak. And it's a bucket.4. Wake Forest a Profitable 14-4 ATS L18, 6-2 ATS L8 on Road After Syracuse Blowout
Wake Forest (6-4 SU, 7-2-1 ATS) kept quietly winning its backers money at the betting windows as the Demon Deacons outscored host Syracuse, 64-43 on Saturday in ACC play after the Orange (3-8 ATS L11 at Home) held a nice 38-24 lead at Halftime in the Carrier Dome (WAKE -2½, 64, Heritage). Wake Forest (W5-6 ATS) outscored Syracuse 40-5 in the 2nd Half en route to the SU Win and ATS cover. The Demon Deacons improved to an extremely profitable 14-4 ATS their L18 lined games (77.8%) and are now 6-2 ATS the L8 Road games. Next up on the schedule for 4th-year Head Coach Dave Clawson (26-17-1 ATS) and Wake Forest are ACC Home dates against NC State (11/18) and Duke (11/25) in two series’ in which the Demon Deacons have really struggled ATS of late with Wake Forest 0-3 ATS the L3 meetings against the Wolfpack and 1-5 ATS the L6 against the Blue Devils including a weak 0-3 ATS mark at Home in Winston-Salem. Since 2014, the Demon Deacons are tied for the 8th-best team vs. ATS in FBS College Football, going 21-13 -1.5. Florida State Continues to Underwhelm, Only FBS Team Without ATS Cover After Loss at Clemson
What looked like a huge ACC game on paper (and your Mobile Devices) before the 2017 Regular Season started, the Florida State-Clemson showdown on Saturday in Week 11 from Death Valley saw Kelly Bryant and defending national champions Clemson win, 31-14, in a result which saw the Seminoles (3-6 SU, 0-8-1 ATS) lose (again) ATS at most sportsbooks which closed 16½ and 16 and Push at the few which closed at 17 (BetDSI). The game opened at -19 and was bet down everywhere on Seminoles money, but the #4 Tigers prevailed both SU and ATS, thanks to a 14-7 4th Quarter in a good result for the players (45½) and a game which also Pushed some places on the Total (45) but Won/Lost at others (44½, 45½).
So here, you could have both won or lost bets on the Over or Under or Seminoles or Tigers, depending on when and where you made your bet(s). Clemson (3-6 SU, 5-2-2 ATS) potentially Pushed it third straight game for those grading on a (Clemson minus) 17 spread and potentially played it’s 6th Under in its L7 games depending on the (Totals) number one got. With the victory, the Tigers clinched a spot in the ACC Championship game against fellow Sunshine-staters Miami Florida (8-0 SU, 6-0 in ACC), who smashed #3 Notre Dame around, 41-8, more than likely eliminating Brandon Wimbush, Josh Adams and the Independent Fighting Irish from the CFP Playoff picture (2 Losses—Georgia and Miami Florida) this campaign although Nick Chubb and #2 Georgia were also upset at #10 Auburn earlier in the day, 40-17, so new names will float up to the top with #5 Oklahoma, #3 Clemson and #7 Miami Florida possibly being the biggest beneficiaries after the dust cleared from Week 11.
Next up for 8th-year Head Coach Jimbo Fisher (46-49-1 ATS), Safety Derwin James and the snake-bitten Seminoles—who really haven’t recovered since the loss of starting QB Deondre Francois in the 2017 Season Kickoff against #1 Alabama—is a schedule-friendly date with FCS-side Delaware State (2-8 SU) at Home at Doak Campbell Stadium (Grass) in Tallahassee on Saturday (Nov. 18) followed by the Regular Season finale against rivals and SEC side Florida at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (Grass) in Gainesville (FSU 3-1 ATS L4, 3-0 ATS L3 Road).Free NCAAF Week 12 Pick: Ohio v.s Akron 'Under'