Virginia to Upset College Football Odds on Saturday vs. Miami

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, November 19, 2014 7:29 PM GMT

This expert College Football handicapper predicts that a well-rested and quality defensive Virginia team will give Miami a major let down, upsetting the NCAAF odds on Saturday.

Miami FLA (-6) at Virginia 7:00 ET ESPN2
Each week in my Pointspread Prognosis Newsletter, I select an UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK.  The success of these selections has been based on the combination of statistical concepts backed by strong situational plays. These selections are currently 9-3 ATS for the season, after my selection on Utah (+7) resulted in a 20-17 OT victory for the Utes at Stanford. This week, I turn to what might be the situational play of the week for college football odds

Last week, Miami, FLA hosted the undefeated, defending Champs in Florida St.  As have many others this season, Miami bolted to a 23-7 lead against their rival Florida State Seminoles. It appeared that the home dog upset was in the making.  But, as it has happened on 5 previous occasions this year, Florida St. stormed back, after trailing at halftime, to emerge with a 30-26 victory.  

Each week, it is the handicapper’s job to face the conundrum of whether a team will bounce back from a crushing defeat or have a letdown the following week. Having defeated Virginia (45-26) last season, it must surely be hard for Miami to come with their “A” game this Saturday evening as they suffer the week’s biggest letdown off the Florida St. loss.  There is no denying the fundamental excellence of the Hurricanes led by emerging QB Kaaya and RB Duke Johnson, this team is on the verge of 200 Club member status with a running game that averages 197/5.5 and aerial game that averages 245/8.8.  A decent defense, allowing just 323 YPG, makes this a quality team.  
 

Tonight, however, they are in the wrong place at the wrong time.  Virginia’s previous game was 2 weeks ago, a 34-20 loss to that same Florida State team.  After beginning the season 4-2 SU, the Cavs have slipped to 4-6 SU with 3 consecutive losses.  With an extra week to prepare, they should be well focused on the task at hand, which is to win the final 2 games, leading them to Bowl eligibility. The Cavs have a righteous defense in their own right as they allow just 348 YPG on 5.0 YP play.  They also know that they can play with this team.  In that 45-26 loss last year, Virginia outrushed Miami 243-90 and outgained them for the day 483-304.   As a result of that game, Virginia is now 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in this series. 

The Pick
In the final analysis for this College Football pick, I can say we have a quality defensive home dog, who is well rested and playing with great intensity for their Bowl bid and coaches job. It is the ideal spot against a team traveling north, who is off their biggest disappointment of the season.

College Football pick: Virginia +6 at 5dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":294484, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]