Vanderbilt vs. Alabama Picks, Predictions College Football Week 4: Can Crimson Tide Shut Out Commodores?

Philip Wood

Last Updated: September 22, 2022 1:29 PM EDT • 2 min 37 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Bryce Young of the Alabama Crimson Tide looks on during pregame warmups prior to a game against the Georgia Bulldogs. Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images via AFP.

The Commodores haven’t beaten Alabama since 1984. That's unlikely to change on Saturday, but can they cover a spread of nearly six touchdowns? Let's examine the matchup in our Vanderbilt-Alabama picks.

The Commodores are off to a 3-1 start after winning at Northern Illinois in Week 3. Their one loss in 2022 came against Wake Forest, the only Power 5 opponent they’ve faced thus far. Vanderbilt takes on the Crimson Tide in Week 4, a team the school hasn't scored a point against since 2007. They've been outscored 93-0 over the last two meetings.

The Crimson Tide dominated Louisiana-Monroe in Week 3, looking much more like the team everyone expected in 2022. Their one-point win at Texas still looms large as Alabama heads into the SEC schedule.

However, Vanderbilt isn't a typical SEC opponent. The question isn’t whether Alabama will win, but rather how much the Crimson Tide will win by on Saturday.

Here are our Vanderbilt-Alabama college football picks for Week 4 (odds via DraftKings and BetMGM sportsbooks; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Vanderbilt vs. Alabama Game Info

Date: September, Sept. 24, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: SEC Network
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Weather: 66 degrees, 9% chance of precipitation, 7-mph winds

Vanderbilt vs. Alabama Analysis

The spread hasn’t moved. It opened at 40.5, which is exactly where it sits now at most major sportsbooks. The total has dropped from 61 to 59, with some books going as low as 58.5.

Both the tickets and cash are going toward Alabama and the Over. The Crimson Tide are getting 55% of the cash and 87% of the tickets to cover the spread. Meanwhile, the Over is getting nearly all the tickets (97%) and cash (94%).

Vanderbilt vs. Alabama Picks

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.

Vanderbilt vs. Alabama ATS Pick

Alabama -40.5 (-110) ★★

The Crimson Tide are 40-plus-point favorites for the third time in 2022. They covered easily in the previous two instances.

However, we really don't know much about the Commodores after their first four games. They're 2-2 against the spread, and they've scored 35-plus points three times, including a 63-10 drubbing of Hawaii. Their offense also produced well during a 45-25 loss to 23rd-ranked Wake Forest.

However, the Commodores haven’t scored more than 10 points in a game against Alabama since 1999. The Crimson Tide's defense has been stout against weak opponents, and the Commodores qualify as one. But will Alabama's offense score enough to cover this spread?

Lean toward the Crimson Tide getting there. But they could win 45-7, dominating from start to finish without covering.

Vanderbilt vs. Alabama O/U Pick

Under 59.5 (-110) ★★★

The Under has hit in four of the Crimson Tide’s last five games and six of the last seven contests between these two teams. The Commodores are averaging 42 points per game, but they haven’t played a team as talented as Alabama.

The Crimson Tide's offense could clear this number on its own, as the unit did in Week 3 against Louisiana-Monroe. However, the Crimson Tide are facing a tough three-game stretch coming up, with a date at Arkansas scheduled for next Saturday.

Alabama scored 28 second-half points in Week 3. Look for that total to be much lower this week as the squad looks ahead to the Razorbacks.

Vanderbilt vs. Alabama Prop Pick

Vanderbilt to score 0 Points (+330) ★★

This is a value play, as the Commodores are already likely to score 10 or fewer points. The Crimson Tide's defense has been excellent in 2022, even in the nail-biter against Texas. They gave up just one touchdown in that affair while forcing the Longhorns to kick four field goals.

A safer play would be Vanderbilt Under 7.5, which comes with a price of -135. After all, the Commodores’ offense has put up good numbers in 2022. But season stats can be thrown out the window when it comes time to play Alabama.

Where to Bet on Vanderbilt-Alabama Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Vanderbilt-Alabama picks made 9/22/2022 at 8:12 a.m. ET

Written By:
Philip Wood

Phil is a Sports Betting Analyst for Sportsbook Review and BettingPros.com, specializing in NFL and college football. He previously covered college football and college basketball for CanesInsight.com, where he also hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast. Phil is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is if a line doesn't make sense, just assume that Vegas knows something you don't. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. Some would call him a frontrunner for his love of the Yankees and the Celtics, but he's also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and will never forgive the refs for the blown pass interference call against the Cowboys in 2015.