The Commodores haven’t beaten Alabama since 1984. That's unlikely to change on Saturday, but can they cover a spread of nearly six touchdowns? Let's examine the matchup in our Vanderbilt-Alabama picks.
The Commodores are off to a 3-1 start after winning at Northern Illinois in Week 3. Their one loss in 2022 came against Wake Forest, the only Power 5 opponent they’ve faced thus far. Vanderbilt takes on the Crimson Tide in Week 4, a team the school hasn't scored a point against since 2007. They've been outscored 93-0 over the last two meetings.
The Crimson Tide dominated Louisiana-Monroe in Week 3, looking much more like the team everyone expected in 2022. Their one-point win at Texas still looms large as Alabama heads into the SEC schedule.
However, Vanderbilt isn't a typical SEC opponent. The question isn’t whether Alabama will win, but rather how much the Crimson Tide will win by on Saturday.
Vanderbilt vs. Alabama Game Info
Date: September, Sept. 24, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: SEC Network
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Weather: 66 degrees, 9% chance of precipitation, 7-mph winds
Vanderbilt vs. Alabama Analysis
The spread hasn’t moved. It opened at 40.5, which is exactly where it sits now at most major sportsbooks. The total has dropped from 61 to 59, with some books going as low as 58.5.
Both the tickets and cash are going toward Alabama and the Over. The Crimson Tide are getting 55% of the cash and 87% of the tickets to cover the spread. Meanwhile, the Over is getting nearly all the tickets (97%) and cash (94%).
Vanderbilt vs. Alabama Picks
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Vanderbilt vs. Alabama ATS Pick
Alabama -40.5 (-110) ★★
The Crimson Tide are 40-plus-point favorites for the third time in 2022. They covered easily in the previous two instances.
However, we really don't know much about the Commodores after their first four games. They're 2-2 against the spread, and they've scored 35-plus points three times, including a 63-10 drubbing of Hawaii. Their offense also produced well during a 45-25 loss to 23rd-ranked Wake Forest.
However, the Commodores haven’t scored more than 10 points in a game against Alabama since 1999. The Crimson Tide's defense has been stout against weak opponents, and the Commodores qualify as one. But will Alabama's offense score enough to cover this spread?
Lean toward the Crimson Tide getting there. But they could win 45-7, dominating from start to finish without covering.
Vanderbilt vs. Alabama O/U Pick
Under 59.5 (-110) ★★★
The Under has hit in four of the Crimson Tide’s last five games and six of the last seven contests between these two teams. The Commodores are averaging 42 points per game, but they haven’t played a team as talented as Alabama.
The Crimson Tide's offense could clear this number on its own, as the unit did in Week 3 against Louisiana-Monroe. However, the Crimson Tide are facing a tough three-game stretch coming up, with a date at Arkansas scheduled for next Saturday.
Alabama scored 28 second-half points in Week 3. Look for that total to be much lower this week as the squad looks ahead to the Razorbacks.
Vanderbilt vs. Alabama Prop Pick
Vanderbilt to score 0 Points (+330) ★★
This is a value play, as the Commodores are already likely to score 10 or fewer points. The Crimson Tide's defense has been excellent in 2022, even in the nail-biter against Texas. They gave up just one touchdown in that affair while forcing the Longhorns to kick four field goals.
A safer play would be Vanderbilt Under 7.5, which comes with a price of -135. After all, the Commodores’ offense has put up good numbers in 2022. But season stats can be thrown out the window when it comes time to play Alabama.
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Vanderbilt-Alabama picks made 9/22/2022 at 8:12 a.m. ET