Valuable Underdog College Football Pick in Week 3 Betting: Temple vs. UMass +11

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, September 17, 2015 3:45 PM GMT

Read more about this outstanding wagering opportunity capper Joe Gavazzi has share. This free college football pick from the week 3 betting odds is all about playing plus money to earn big.

Big College Football Dog of the Week
Each week in this space, I will isolate the college football Big Dog of the week.  It will be a selection in which our team is an underdog of 6 or more points. It will be a blend of statistical, situational and technical analysis that will result in an outstanding wagering opportunity for you. This is a winning College Football Pick that makes you an odds on favorite to cash your ticket.

 

Temple (-11) vs. UMass 3:00 ET  
Last week in this space, we lost our Big Dog selection on E. Carolina, when they could only put up 7 total points in their 24 point loss at Stanford as 19 point underdog.  This week, we have a far more capable offensive team in UMass, as well as a much better situation.  We also have a (+59) net AFP differential in the game (though it does not quite qualify under our strict parameters, as the Minutemen have played just a single contest).  Nonetheless, the thinking is certainly there.  Review our “Lone Ranger” selection on Nevada or this week’s article entitled “A Primer as Using the AFP as Indicator” for the value thinking in this matchup.
 
Much was expected from the Temple Owls this season.  They have 19 RS and a highly-respected 3rd year HC in Matt Rhule. They have not disappointed!  In Week 1, Temple defeated Penn St. for the first time since they fought with swords.  The victory (27-10) as 6 point underdog was for real, as they outgained the Nittany Lions 317-191, covering by 23 points.  Last week, the Owls carried that momentum to Cincinnati, where they recorded another victory by a score of 34-26.  This was their opening conference game of the year and allowed Temple to avenge a home field loss last year.  Though the Owls did run for 215 yards, they survived courtesy of a (+4) net TO margin and despite allowing Cincinnati QB Kiel to pass for 427 yards. 
 
Enter UMass gun-slinger, QB Frohnapfel. With their pro-prospect at the helm, UMass improved their offense from 12/282 in 2013 to 27/421 last year with Frohnapfel leading a passing attack that averaged 312 PYPG. But, UMass clearly underachieved when they faced an angry Buffalo (off a Week 1 loss at Hawaii) at the mile high altitude of Boulder last week. Though Frohnapfel put up 215 passing yards, Colorado stampeded UMass overland 390-147. UMass has 18 RS of their own, arguably the most experienced team in the nation, and will be primed to make amends as they return for their home opener. The combined (-59) net AFP differential assures us that there is value in this line.  
 
Clearly, there is some concern that the Owls will dominate overland in this contest. But, the fact Temple is facing a quality signal caller after allowing QB Kiel to torch their secondary last week, plays in our favor. That advantage may pale in comparison to the mental and emotional edge, we have in this contest with Temple due for a probable letdown and UMass sky-high in their home opener off their loss in Boulder and with an opportunity to upset this high-profile Owls team.

College Football Picks: Take UMass (+11)