Valero Alamo Bowl Picks: Texas vs. Oregon

Steven Suarez

Thursday, December 12, 2013 7:12 PM GMT

The Ducks are favored by two touchdowns over the Longhorns for the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio. See where we think the best college football betting value lies.

Odds Overview

We've gotten used to seeing Oregon laying these kind of numbers. Sportsbooks were giving away 13 to 14 points to the Longhorns.

The O/U had not been released at time of writing, but you can expect a high number whenever the Ducks are involved.

Oregon Ducks

At 6-0, highlighted by a 42-14 stomping of UCLA, the Ducks were looking primed for a BCS bowl and a possible berth into the BCS Championship Game.

However, it all came crashing down when Oregon lost by six at Stanford, and they picked up another rare loss at Arizona (42-16). The Ducks closed out the season with a 36-35 win over Oregon State to finish 10-2.

As usual, it's pure offense that's been the catalyst. Oregon ranks second in total offense – they've averaged 268.3 rushing yards per game (#9 in the country) and 294.7 passing yards per game (#20) ahead of this bowl showdown. Defensively, the Ducks are #47 in total yards allowed.

Marcus Mariota has had another amazing season, throwing 30 touchdown passes against four interceptions and running for close to 600 yards and nine more scores.

The sophomore quarterback will lead out an Oregon team that was passed over for the last remaining BCS spot. They only have themselves to blame, but we can't help but think the Ducks will come out swinging to prove they deserved a bigger spotlight.

College Football Bowl Picks & Predictions

Texas Longhorns

It was an up-and-down year for the Longhorns. They picked up two early losses (BYU, Ole Miss), but then won six straight games, topped off by an outstanding 36-20 victory over Oklahoma.

A poor ending, which included losses to Oklahoma State (38-13) and Baylor (30-10) left Texas with a final record of 8-4. They went 7-2 in the conference.

Looking over the statistics, we find the Longhorns haven't been very productive on either side of the ball. They're #55 in total offense (their running attack has been solid at 197.6 YPG), while they're at #61 on the defensive side.

Senior QB Case McCoy was thrust into action when David Ash went down early on in the year and he didn't have the best of seasons. He completed 57.4 percent of his passes and had as many interceptions (11) as he did touchdown throws.

Johnathan Gray started off dominating the backfield touches and was having a great year, but since getting injured Malcolm Brown has taken over and done well. He's racked up 251 yards on 52 attempts over his last two games.

College Football Pick

As Texas found out against Baylor, they just don't have the offensive clout to hang with the elite teams, at least for the entire 60 minutes. We expect more of the same on December 30th.

The Longhorns have been nowhere near as sound defensively as many expected and that's a huge issue with Oregon on their way. Mariota has been practically unstoppable all season long and the Ducks spread offense should give Texas fits.

So while the Longhorns have managed a few good wins this season, we just don't think they'll be able to keep up with the Ducks. They'll try to control the clock with a healthy dosage of Brown, but it wont' be enough. Add Oregon to your college football picks to win by at least a couple touchdowns here in the Alamo Bowl.

Pick: Oregon Ducks -13

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