Rose Bowl: Utah vs. Ohio State College Football Picks
For the first time in three years, Ohio State won't be competing in the College Football Playoff after the Buckeyes lost the Big Ten Championship to Michigan. On the opposite sideline, Utah will be playing in the Rose Bowl for the first time in school history. Read on for our Utah-Ohio State Rose Bowl picks.
"The Granddaddy of Them All" will feature a team with preseason national championship hopes against one of the hottest programs in the country.
Ohio State missed the CFP for just the fourth time in the eight-year history of the championship format. Fortunately for the Buckeyes, their consolation prize is a New Year's Six bowl and a spot in one of the most high-profile games of bowl season.
Utah is riding a six-game winning streak in which the Utes scored fewer than 38 points just once.
Here are my picks and predictions for the Rose Bowl matchup between Utah and Ohio State (odds via DraftKing Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Utah vs. Ohio State Game Info
Date/Time: Saturday, Jan. 1, 5 p.m. ETTV: ESPNLocation: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CAWeather: Mostly sunny and cool, high of 59 degrees
Utah vs. Ohio State Odds Analysis
The line opened with Ohio State favored by almost a touchdown at -6, but has been bet down to -4.5, as it should have been. Fifty-eight percent of bets are on Ohio State, but 60% of the money is on Utah.
The total line opened at a sky-high 67 points, but has since dropped three points to 64 at most sportsbooks. The Over has received 55% of the bets but 73% of the handle.
Utah Betting Preview
Record: 10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS, 8-5 O/UKey Players: QB Cameron Rising, RB Tavion Thomas, WR/KR Britain Covey, LB Devin Lloyd, DE Mika TafuaNotable Trend: Utah is 9-5 against the spread in bowl games under head coach Kyle WhittinghamBowl History: 17-6 all-time record; 2020: Opted out of bowl season
Utah finished the year 11th in the College Football Playoff rankings after capturing its first Pac-12 title since moving to the conference in 2011. The Utes topped Oregon twice on their way to the crown, dispatching the Ducks by margins of 31 and 28 points in the span of three weeks.
Oregon is the only common opponent between the two Rose Bowl participants. While Utah blew out its rival on both occasions, Ohio State lost 35-28 to Oregon at home in September.
Ohio State Betting Preview
Record: 10-2 SU, 6-5-1 ATS, 7-5 O/UKey Players: QB C.J. Stroud, RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, S Ronnie HickmanNotable Trend: Ohio State is 8-7 all-time in the Rose BowlBowl History: 26-27 all-time record; 2020: Lost 52-24 to Alabama in National Championship
The No. 6 Buckeyes won't be operating at full strength as star wideouts Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson - who lead the team with 13 and 12 touchdown receptions, respectively - opted out of the Rose Bowl to focus on the NFL draft. Also opting out are first-team All-American left tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere and defensive tackle Haskell Garrett, who leads the team with 5.5 sacks.
However, Ohio State will have Heisman Trophy finalist C.J. Stroud under center. The contender for Freshman of the Year threw for 3,862 yards and a 7.6:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio after tossing 38 TD passes against just five interceptions.
Utah vs. Ohio State Picks
Ohio State -4 (-120) ???Over 64 (-110) ??Ohio State first half total points Over 16.5 (-`135) ????Ohio State to score first and win (+143 via Unibet) ???Parlay: Ohio State -4 + Over 64 (+250) ??
SEE ALSO: All College Football Bowl Odds, Lines, and Picks
Utah vs. Ohio State Predictions
Ohio State -4 (-120)
Utah was the pick at +6.5, but side with Ohio State to cover four points, which is available at DraftKings. I'm expecting the Buckeyes to win outright. In their last 10 bowl games, their only losses have come against Clemson and Alabama, fellow powerhouses. They handled their last four bowl matchups against Pac-12 opponents.
Though Stroud won't have Olave and Wilson streaking down the field, Smith-Njigba led the team in receptions (80) and yards (1,259), and the Buckeyes have a steady stream of playmakers ready for more playing time, such as freshman wideout Marvin Harrison Jr.
Though Utah has won six straight, all against Pac-12 opponents, OSU's two losses this season bookended a nine-game win streak.
Ohio State losses are exceedingly rare, as are defeats in the Rose Bowl, which hasn't happened since 1985.
Over 64 (-110)
Points shouldn't be hard to come by in the Rose Bowl.
Both programs rank in the top 20 in points scored per game. Ohio State leads the country by averaging 45.5 points per game and Utah averages 35.5 points per.
During their six-game win streak, the Utes are averaging a shade under 40 points per game. Both teams scored fewer than 30 points just three times this season.
Despite the opt-outs and two defenses that give up 20 points per contest, both teams should light up the scoreboard like a pinball machine.
Ohio State 1st half total points Over 16.5 (-`135)
With that game script in mind, Ohio State should have no trouble topping this first-half point total prop.
The Buckeyes scored at least 17 points in the first half of all eight games from Sept. 25 to Nov. 20. That streak was broken when they scored 13 against Michigan in the Big Ten title game.
Ohio State to score 1st and win (+143)
Confident in our bet on the outcome, we'll take the plus-money odds on Ohio State to reach the end zone first.
The Buckeyes lead the country in total offense, with 551.3 total yards per game. With a top-flight passing game and a bruising back in Henderson, OSU has multiple ways to score, even on a Utah pass defense that ranks 24th.
The Buckeyes will be particularly motivated to move on from their rivalry loss to Michigan and Stroud's fourth-place finish in the Heisman voting.
Parlay: Ohio State -4 + Over 64 (+250)
We've laid out the case for both props in our Utah-Ohio State picks. Combining both nets a healthy plus-money return.
Utah will be eager to prove worthy of the big stage, but Ohio State is a significant step up in competition for the Utes.
Oregon is the only other top-10 team Utah has faced this season, and just so happened to be a well-known Pac-12 foe.
A track meet and Ohio State cover rounds out our Utah-Ohio State picks.
SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.
Utah-Ohio State picks made 12/29/2021 at 9:15 a.m. ET
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