Using 'AFP' as Key Indicator for College Football Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, October 14, 2014 2:20 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 14, 2014 2:20 PM UTC

This experienced College Football betting adviser pinpoints a certain strategy which results in highly accurate picks placed against-the-spread, which he refers to as the "AFP method."

This skilled handicapper's quest is to isolate methods that will lead him to line value on a consistent basis. This article summarizes the theory he offered in late September that is an excellent example of this type of thinking.

Prior to Week 4 of this season’s College Football action, I wrote an article which showed how we could use the AFP (away from the pointspread) as a contrary indicator, when looking to isolate value in the College Football odds.  Please allow me to remind you of the premise that we use.  First of all, the AFP is the net margin by which a team wins or loses to the pointspread in any given game or set of games.  As the schedule increases with a greater number of games, this AFP grows increasingly large, as either a negative or positive number for teams who are doing well against the pointspread or teams who are performing poorly against the pointspread.  The linemaker adjusts his power rating on a team using this AFP margin as a prime consideration.  We use it as a contrary indicator as teams return to the form (power rating) that was assigned to them at the beginning of the season.  

The very simple formula is to “play on” any team who has a negative net AFP vs. any team who has a positive net AFP margin, if the combination of that combined net difference is 50 or more points.  

My historical research has shown us that this can be a key indicator of contrary success in Weeks 4-7 of the College Football season.  

Now, let’s take a look at the results of the AFP from Week 4 through Week 7 of bettable play. 
Please note, that there are no fewer than 15 other CFB teams.

Week 4        4-3 ATS

Week 5        8-6 ATS

Week 6       9-6 ATS

Week 7        8-2 ATS

That is a combined record of 29-17 ATS, good for 63% winners.

In the just completed Week 7 schedule, 7 of the 8 winners were a result of the final score falling between the current line and the projected opening line.  Clearly, it was an excellent example of the theory at work.   

This AFP theory is a powerful indicator of line value.  Even if you are unable to pull the trigger on these contrary plays for College Football picks on Saturday, October 2014, at least you understand that you can use it as an indicator when betting to keep you off those rather obvious momentum plays that never seem to win for you. 

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