Useful Betting Data Signals Four Teams to Fade With Your Week 8 College Football Picks

Doug Upstone

Friday, October 23, 2015 10:27 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 23, 2015 10:27 PM UTC

As many of you who have read my articles know, when it comes to breaking down the college football odds, I spend vast amounts of time seeking edges to find winners.

To beat the sportsbooks with any sort of consistency that allows you or anyone to make a profit, you have to be able to create and also understand information. Looking at sports betting data over look periods of time is useful and helpful, but has inherent flaws because oddsmakers like many sharp bettors are trying to stay one step ahead.

While I am big fan of doing research to generate new material and ideas, you will not find this football handicapper discarding old tried and truth methods that may not win every year, but have a long history of success when it comes to making sports picks.


Understanding Multiple Spread Winners and Losers in College Football
Two systems I assembled for college football picks was looking at teams that covered or failed to cover in three consecutive games. In years past, teams whatever action a team took over a three-game stretch, anyone looking over the college football odds found a dependable 55 to 70 percent winner by going the opposite way of recent results.

The rationale was if a team covered the spread three straight times, the oddsmakers would shade their number trying to get action on the other side from betting public, or if a team failed to beat the bookie three times, they would be a solid value play and come ready to give their best effort.

Why this also worked is players used to think differently, they grew up having a better understanding about winning and losing and did not have - participation trophies - and their coaches would feed on those emotions.


Find Those Multiple Spread Losers and Back Them, to Lose
However, today's athlete has grown up in a different world, coddled since youth, almost always praised and seldom dealing with real adversity until away from home and out of parents or coaches reach.

This is where we can profit, teams not handling troubling times versus the betting market.

In fine tuning my research, I want teams off three exact spread losses, having played those games in consecutive weeks and the last setback is followed by a contest the following week (four games in four weeks). Why this is important for this system is any break in the action is a chance to regroup or rethink, as opposed to just moving on and dwelling about failure (losing games) or perceived failure (non-covers).

In the past eight years, betting on three-time spread losers to do so again is 216-168 ATS, 56.2%. Certainly not an overwhelming number, as some years are going to be better than others, however, a $100 bettor would be up $3,120.00 just following this simple procedure.

Along with this, it pays to follow a hotter trend, just like keying in hot stocks, knowing when to buy and knowing when to sell. Thus far in 2015, if you bet against teams off three exact spread losses in the timeframe I mentioned, you have 14 winners and only six losers, 70 percent. I am not going to tell those results will continue, nor I say they will not.


Here Are The Plays!
Wisconsin has underachieved in many people eyes, but frankly, all the coaching changes of this BigTen team have hurt recruiting on offense, which is why the Badgers have not beat the spread recently.

New Mexico strictly an option offense running team and if they fall behind early in game, they have a hard time coming back and their defense has allowed 32.1 PPG in their last six.

Ball State has been an outstanding wager as a road underdog for years, but they're playing their third home game in a month, were they are almost the reverse and a mediocre bet at home.

After starting 3-0 ATS, Air Force has not been able to put behind the drubbing Navy handled them of 33-11 as four-point road underdogs and dumped two more ATS since.

That is four plays and let's see if the losing continues for these teams.

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