Upset Alerts: No Brainer College Football Picks for Championship Weekend

Ross Benjamin

Friday, December 4, 2015 8:26 PM GMT

Our college football handicapper has gone 15-9 (60%) during the last five weeks with his upset alerts. He has two more college football picks in this week’s abbreviated slate. 

North Carolina vs. Clemson 8:00 PM ET
North Carolina has reeled off 11 wins in a row following a head scratching opening game loss to South Carolina. Despite their impressive winning streak and record, North Carolina hasn’t received a whole lot of respect from the College Football Playoff Committee. As of Tuesday’s (12/1) ratings, North Carolina is #10 with two loss teams like Stanford, Notre Dame, and Florida State ranked ahead of them. The Tar Heels didn’t face the top three teams in the ACC Atlantic Division (Clemson, Florida State, & Louisville) this season, and voters obviously weren’t impressed with their strength of schedule. With all that being said, Saturday will be a golden opportunity to sway voters, and make a statement against the top ranked team (Clemson) in the land.

North Carolina finished the regular season with an impressive 45-34 win at North Carolina State. Clemson struggled in their finale against a 3-9 South Carolina team, and escaped with a 37-32 win. Any underdog of 3.5 to 10.0 (North Carolina), coming off a conference win by 10 points or more, versus an opponent (Clemson) coming off a road game in which both teams scored 31 points or more, resulted in those underdogs going 45-15 (75%) against the spread since 1996.

According to current college football odds, they provide me with the best combination of number and price for this specific wager.

College Football Pick: North Carolina +5 at Bovada

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Air Force vs. San Diego State 7:30 PM ET
Air Force was caught looking ahead during last week’s upset loss as a 10.5 point favorite at New Mexico. That came on the heels of a huge win as a 10.5 point underdog at Boise State the week before. Keep in mind, this is a Falcons team that’s gone 18-7 (.720) since the start of the 2014 season. They’ve also been a very profitable 16-9 ATS (64%) in those contests. During that stretch, they’ve also gone 7-3 ATS as an underdog, and won six of those games outright. My point being, I like the underdog value in this spot.

Any conference road underdog of 3.5 to 10.0, coming off a straight up loss as a favorite of 10.0 or more, and has a winning percentage of .300 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of less than .800, resulted in those road underdogs going 30-4 ATS (88.2%) since 1991.

One of my college football picks this week will be on the underdog in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game.

College Football Pick: Air Force +7 (-130) at 5Dimes

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