Upset Alert for Week 10 NCAAF Picks: Smalls Dogs Ready to Bite

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, November 7, 2015 7:46 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 7, 2015 7:46 PM UTC

Our college football handicapper has gone 7-4 ATS in the last three weeks with his upset alerts. He has three more this week, go inside to find out who those college football picks are.

TCU vs. Oklahoma State 3:30 PM ET
TCU ranks second nationally in scoring offense (48.9 PPG) and total yards (616.3 YPG). The numbers for the Oklahoma State offense aren’t quite as gaudy compared to TCU, but they’re still extremely impressive nonetheless. The Cowboys are averaging 44.0 points and 502.2 yards per game.

Both offenses will have their way for a majority of Saturday’s game. The question then becomes, which defense will outshine the other in the game’s most critical moments. Oklahoma State has shown an uncanny ability this season to make second half defensive adjustments, and that’s been a key factor in their five comeback wins in 2015. The TCU defense has allowed 37 points or more three times this season, and allowed 461 yards or more in each of those contests.

College Football Pick: Oklahoma State +5 at Bovada

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South Florida vs. East Carolina 7:30 PM ET
I love the way Willie Taggart’s team (South Florida) has competed in recent weeks. South Florida had their three game win streak halted last week at Navy 29-17. The game was much closer than that final score indicates. Navy scored a late fourth quarter touchdown following a South Florida fumbled kickoff return. That turnover was only the 10th committed in eight games this year by South Florida. By the way, that’s the same Navy team that hammered East Carolina earlier this season 45-21.

East Carolina has dropped their last two games, losing to Temple 24-14 on their home field, and last week were defeated at Connecticut 31-13. The Pirates were installed as a favorite in both of those contests. They’ve turned the ball over 19 times in eight games versus FBS opponents this season.

I’ll take the points as an additional bonus in this game for one of my college football picks. The current (11/6) college football odds at clearly provides me with the most favorable point spread.

College Football Pick: South Florida +4.5 at TheGreek

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California vs. Oregon 10:30 PM ET
After getting off to a 5-0 start, and earning an AP Top 25 ranking, California has dropped their last three games in a row. It’s pretty easy to pinpoint what their main issue has been recently. During their win streak to start the year, they were a +8 turnover differential in those five games. In this current losing streak, they’re a -5 turnover differential during those three contests. Against a porous defense like they’re about to face on Saturday, I look for that recent turnover trend to discontinue. I also see California quarterback Jered Goff having a monster game.

Oregon has gone 3-1 on the road this season, and covered all four of those contests. Unfortunately for them, their fortunes haven’t been the same at home. The Ducks are 0-4 ATS in Eugene, and that includes 0-2 SU&ATS when facing a PAC-12 opponent. During those two conference losses at home, they’ve allowed an average of 53.5 points and 585.5 yards per game. As a matter of fact, Oregon has allowed 42 points or more in four of their first eight games, and that includes three of four at home.

College Football Pick: California +4.5 at Heritage

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