Upset Alert: Vandy +240 Your College Football Pick Over Texas A&M

Willie Bee

Wednesday, November 18, 2015 2:05 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2015 2:05 PM UTC

Vanderbilt needs to win out to become bowl eligible, but the college football odds are not on the Commodores' side this week when the Texas Aggies come to Nashville.

There are 53 games on Saturday's college football betting card, several of them with the potential to send shockwaves through the next playoff rankings. There are quite a few mismatches and duds as well, with perhaps the least interesting taking place in the Southeastern Conference where the Texas A&M Aggies visit the Vanderbilt Commodores.

Anyone who suffers from insomnia just might want to tune into the SEC Network around 7:30 PM (ET) and see if watching this one doesn't bring you some much-needed sleep. If you happen to be in Music City, my advice is stay away from Vanderbilt Stadium and enjoy one of the many fine music venues down on Broadway, or pop over to Jed's Sports Bar on 28th Avenue North to catch the Predators in action at the Minnesota Wild.

Bookmaker sent the Aggies out as 7½ point road favorites, that spread now showing at -6½. SBR's live college football odds picked up 40½ for the early total.

It's hard to imagine this ever becoming even a minor rivalry in the SEC, Saturday's skirmish only the second time the schools have met on a gridiron. And with games being televised at the same time like Boston College and Notre Dame playing at Fenway Park plus Baylor on the road at Oklahoma State, it's hard to imagine why anyone would watch this one.

The Aggies smothered the Commodores two years ago in what remains one of just five SEC wins Texas A&M has managed at Kyle Field. They had more than enough to cover a 17 point spread then, the game topping the 69½ hurdle on the total.


Murray Questionable Due To Concussion
This year has been much like last year for Texas A&M (7-3 straight up, 4-6 against the spread), the Aggies jumping out to 5-0 records each time before stumbling and bumbling the rest of the way. After covering four of those initial five victories, the Ags have not made a single penny for their backers since.

A victory over South Carolina three weeks ago assured Texas A&M was heading to a bowl game for a fourth consecutive year under Kevin Sumlin, but make no mistake, trouble is brewing in Aggieland. Sumlin is still having problems with an undisciplined team, receivers Speedy Noil and Josh Reynolds suspended for last week's 41-17 win vs. Western Carolina.  The biggest problem, however, remains the inability for the Aggies to stop the run. Their 15th ranking on pass defense is partly due to a strong rush and decent coverage, but it's also because teams are finding it so easy to run the ball against the Aggies (210.2 ypg, 114th).

True freshman QB Kyler Murray, who has started the last three games, is listed as questionable due to a concussion. That would thrust Kyle Allen back into this start.


'Under' Remains Perfect In Vandy Games
It's not like Vanderbilt (4-6 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) has shown much ability to run the pigskin, which plays into A&M's favor this week. The Commodores are 92nd in the land churning out nearly 153 yards per game on the ground, and that 106th-ranked passing attack sure hasn't helped to make up for that.

What Vandy is doing very well under head coach and defensive coordinator Derek Mason is stopping the opposition. The 'Dores are 17th in the country in total defense (319.7 ypg), and 10th in limiting their foes on the scoreboard (17.4 ppg). That last stat couples well with a week offense for bettors, 'under' players cashing all nine of Vanderbilt's games with an NCAA football betting total.

There are morning showers in Nashville's forecast, the rain preceding a cold front that will find the kickoff in the low-40s, at most. This is by far the lowest total of any Texas A&M (4-5 O/U) game this season, something anyone playing the total should consider. I'm thinking outright upset, and will take the Commodores straight up for my free college football pick.

College Football Pick: Vanderbilt +240 at 5Dimes

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