Upset Alert for Missouri vs. Toledo College Football Pick

Darin Zank

Wednesday, September 3, 2014 2:32 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 3, 2014 2:32 PM UTC

Check out our free College Football Pick for the Glass Bowl Saturday afternoon when the Missouri Tigers from the SEC make a rare road trip to a MAC city when they take on Toledo. 

The Betting Line
Many books opened this game with Missouri favored on College Football odds by six points, but by Tuesday morning most shops had dropped that spread to either -5 or -4.5. And the total was proffered at 61.

For those looking for free picks who might want to eschew the point spread the Tigers could be gotten at around -195 on the college football betting money line, with the Rockets getting +170 or so to win this game outright.

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Game Set-Up
Missouri opened this season last week with a 38-18 victory over FCS South Dakota State, but couldn't cover the spread as 25-point favorites. The Tigers led 21-7 in the second quarter but allowed the Jackrabbits to get within 21-18 early in the third quarter. But Mizzou immediately got a 100-yard kickoff return for a score from Marcus Murphy to bump the lead back to double-digits, and tacked on 10 points from there for the finally tally.

The Tigers out-rushed SD State 215-119 and won the turnover battle 3-0, but only held the ball for about 25 minutes.

New Mizzou starting QB Maty Mauk didn't have a great game, but he did throw three touchdown passes to improve his career TD/INT ratio to 14/2.

Missouri returned just eight starters this year, second-fewest in all of FBS ball, from the team that won 12 games and the SEC East last year. Four starters are back on offense, after the losses of last year's starting quarterback, leading rusher and three leading receivers, and just four starters return on defense, after the departures of five of last year's top seven tacklers.

Toledo, meanwhile, opened this season with a 54-20 victory over FCS New Hampshire, covering as 11-point favorites. The Rockets trailed early 14-3 but outscored the Wildcats from there 51-6. Toledo out-gained New Hampshire 666-375 and won the ground war by a 306-37 margin.

New starting QB Phillip Ely, a transfer from Alabama, hit on 24 of 34 throws for 337 yards and four scores, without an interception. 

The Rockets returned 16 starters this season from a team that went 7-5 last year. Seven starters are back on offense, including four along the offensive line, but they had to replace their starting QB and last year's leading rusher and receiver. And nine starters are back on defense, including five of last year's top six tacklers.


When Last We Met
These two teams just met last September, when Missouri beat Toledo 38-23 in Columbia. But the Rockets held on for the cover as 16-point dogs.

Toledo showed no fear going into hostile SEC territory, and only trailed by one point, 24-23, late in the third quarter. And one of Missouri's scores came on an interception return. The Tigers scored the last two touchdowns of the game to ice the victory, but it wasn't enough to earn the cash.

Toledo out-gained the Tigers that day 387-384 but lost the turnover battle 3-1.


Tigers-Rockets Betting Trends
Missouri is 12-3 ATS over its last 15 games.

The Tigers are 4-0 SU but 1-3 ATS in their last four games against MAC foes.

Toledo is 5-0 ATS in its last five games against members of the Big 5 power conferences.

The Rockets have played 13 'unders' in their last 19 games.


Free College Football Pick
The upset alert is out on this one. Missouri is a young team, perhaps headed for a letdown after a run to the SEC championship game last year, and playing in a strange place. Toledo, meanwhile, would love nothing more than to knock off a big-name foe in front of the home-town crowd. So we'll go with the home dog for our College Football Pick, and take the Rockets at the +5 offered at Heritage

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