Upset Alert: Capper's Contrary Play of the Week, Pick Washington Over Boise State

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, September 4, 2015 1:37 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 4, 2015 1:37 PM UTC

In this space, I isolate the LONE RANGER CONTRARY PLAY OF THE WEEK. It is a blend of statistical, situational & technical analysis that will result in an outstanding betting opportunity.

Washigton Huskies vs. Boise State Broncos
At 10:15 pm ET, as televised on ESPN, the Washington Huskies visit the Boise St. Broncos in a battle of 2 of the premier programs in the Northwest. Much has changed since the start of last year with this line. In fact, were this contest to have been played at this site at the beginning of last season, the Huskies would have been a small road favorite. 

When these teams last met, in the 1st game of the 2013 season, current 2nd year Washington HC Petersen was coaching the last of his 8 years as head man of the Broncos.  Washington, playing at home in Seattle, ruled the day in the final year of the Steve Sarkisian rein. The final score was 38-6 in favor of the Huskies as 3 point home favorite.  One must wonder, if that did not play a small part in the decision of Petersen to switch ranks and become head man of the Huskies last season. 

In so doing, Petersen led Washington to an 8-6 SU, 7-6 ATS mark. But, the season culminated with 30-22 loss to Oklahoma St. in their Bowl game. Now, Washington brings back just 10 RS from that team, is one of the least experienced teams in the nation and is in true rebuilding mode. He takes this young team on their first road trip to one of the toughest venues in the nation (just ask Petersen, who was 48-2 SU at this site) with a young QB and offensive line. There they will matchup against a Boise team, who returns 17 starters for exciting 2nd year HC Harsin. 

Last year, Harsin proved his success at Arkansas St. was no fluke by leading a Boise team to a record of 12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS, highlighted by 9 consecutive victories to close the season, culminating with a 38-30 victory over Arizona in their Bowl game.  Fly in the ointment, however, is the loss of last year’s starting QB Hedrick and OC Mike Sanford, who matriculated to Notre Dame.  The offensive transition may not go quite as smoothly as Bronco backers believe!   

No longer are the flying geese plummeting to their deaths on the blue turf of Boise. I guess, they learned better since that first night.  But, it has not stopped the public from being in love with the notion of Boise, the Broncos or the Blue Field.  In fact, the public is all over the home team in this one, making you, me and the Lone Ranger the only one who are suiting up on the side of the college football odds road dog in this one!  Mush! Huskies!

College Football Pick: Take Washington

Not Convinced? Check Another Capper's Note on this Matchup.

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