Undervalued Kansas State the Pick Over Iowa State

Darin Zank

Wednesday, September 3, 2014 3:48 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 3, 2014 3:48 PM UTC

Here’s our College Football pick for Kansas State Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones. Keep in mind that the ‘Cats have held the upper hand vs. 'Clones, winning the last 6 in a row, going 3-2-1 ATS.

The Betting Line
As of mid-week most college football betting shops were listing Big 12 Conference members K State at -12 over Iowa State, with a total of right around 57. Also, those bettors out there who think the Cyclones have a chance to win this game outright could get a price of around +375 on that money-line proposition.

Follow along as we explain why we have decided to offer our free picks on this games spread, as we feel that online sportsbooks have not given the Wildcats the proper credit they deserve.

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The Match-Up
Kansas State began this 2014 season with a 55-16 victory over FCS Stephen F. Austin last week, but just missed the cover as 41-point favorites. The Wildcats led 21-0 and breezed home from there, eventually out-rushing the Lumberjacks 478-294 and holding the ball for almost 38 minutes.

Kansas State returned just 11 starters this year, although that's one more than last year, from a team that went 8-5 in 2013. Six starters are back on offense, including QB Jake Waters and thousand-yard receiver Tyler Lockett, but they've had to replace last year's top two rushers and three along the offensive line. And only five starters are back on defense.

Iowa State, meanwhile, opened its season with a 34-14 loss at home to FCS North Dakota State, falling outright as a six-point favorite. The Cyclones led early 14-0 but allowed the Bison to score the last 34 points of the game. ISU got out-gained 506-253, gave up 302 yards on the ground and only held the ball for 24 minutes.

ISU also took a hit when leading returning receiver Quenton Bundrage tore a knee on the first series of the game and is now out for the season.

Iowa State returned 15 starters, six more than last year, from a 3-9 team of a season ago. Ten starters came back on offense, including two quarterbacks with starting experience, last year's leading rusher and top two receivers (one was Bundrage) and the entire offensive line. But only five starters are back on defense, after the loss of three of last year's top four tacklers.

We get the idea the Cyclones might play a lot of high-scoring games this season.


Wildcats-Cyclones Recent History
Kansas State has won the last six meetings in this series, going 3-2-1 ATS. Last year the Wildcats beat the Cyclones in Manhattan 41-7, covering as 17-point favorites. K State led 17-0 at the half, and didn't allow Iowa State to score until there was only three minutes to go in the game. The Wildcats out-gained the Cyclones 453-249, out-rushed 'em 232-123 and won the turnover battle 3-1.


Wildcats-Cyclones Betting Trends
Kansas State is 3-1-1 ATS the last five times it's been chalked as a College Football odds favorite on the road.

The Wildcats are also 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games.


Free College Football Pick
We like the idea of getting a ranked team on the road, where the spread isn't as bad as it would be were the game being played in Manhattan. And Ames isn't known for being a tough place play at. So we'll go with the Wildcats, at the -12 (-101) offered at Pinnacle, for our free college football pick on this Big 12 contest. 

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