Underdog Value in Florida St. vs. Oklahoma St. Football Pick

Jeff Grant

Thursday, August 28, 2014 12:54 PM GMT

Thursday, Aug. 28, 2014 12:54 PM GMT

Before making your College Football picks, understand that the Oklahoma State Cowboys have suffered only two setbacks by more than 10 points over the last four-plus seasons, which provides them value against the Florida State Seminoles Saturday night. 

Success in Texas 
Oklahoma State returns just four starters on each side of the ball, which is important to consider when making your Week 1 college football predictions, but it has proven victorious in 11 of its last 13 games played in the Lone Star State.

The Cowboys have the look of a dangerous underdog when this game kicks off at AT&T Stadium Saturday, as their roster includes 69 native Texans—more than any other school outside of the state.

J.W. Walsh is one of those players—ranking second among returning Big 12 Conference quarterbacks with a pass efficiency rating of 147.9—behind only Bryce Petty of the Baylor Bears (174.5).

 

Dominance 
The Florida State Seminoles ran the table in capturing the 2014 BCS Championship, as it was favored by an average of 27.5 points in winning all 14 of its games, which can’t be ignored when looking over the college football lines on a weekly basis.

Sports bettors will find that defending national champions have won their last 15 season openers by an average of 31 points, while the Seminoles paced the country in scoring offense and defense a year ago.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the squad is 9-1 SU and 3-7 ATS as favorites of 10.5 to 21 points, with the 'under' going 6-4 in that situation.

 

Creating Turnovers
One of the main reasons why the Cowboys have lost only two of 52 games by more than 10 points is their ability to create turnovers—something that must happen for them not to suffer their third such loss in this matchup.

Oklahoma State will need its defensive line to play big in order to force a turnover for a 22nd straight game, but the group is certainly capable after ranking 16th nationally with an average of 7.3 tackles for loss per game in 2013.

 

Famous Jameis
The Seminoles are betting favorites in the futures market to win back-to-back titles, as the public can’t wait to see what Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jameis Winston can do for an encore.

The redshirt sophomore passed for 4,057 yards and 40 touchdowns while leading the nation with a 184.8 rating in 2013.  He was the main reason why Florida State led the Atlantic Coast Conference in averaging 519.1 yards per game of total offense.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Cowboys as one of their Week 1 College Football picks, as they’ve won nine of their last 14 games in straight-up fashion against ranked opponents.

Free College Football Pick:  Oklahoma State Cowboys +18 at 5Dimes

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