UL Lafayette to Cover vs. Texas State in Only NCAAF Game Thursday

louisiana lafayette football

David Schwab

Wednesday, October 11, 2017 1:51 PM GMT

Wednesday, Oct. 11, 2017 1:51 PM GMT

The Sun Belt Conference highlights Thursday night’s NCAA action this week with the Texas State Bobcats going on the road to tangle with the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns in a 7:30 p.m. (ET) kickoff on ESPNU. 

Texas State Bobcats at Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (-13.5, 57)

Following an opening day victory against Houston Baptist, it has been a tough go of it for the Bobcats with five straight-up losses in a row. After covering as heavy underdogs against Colorado on the road and Appalachian State at home, they have failed to cover in their last three games to fall to 2-4 against the spread. The total went OVER 54.5 points in last week’s 45-27 loss to Louisiana Monroe as a 5-point home underdog and it has gone OVER the closing line in Texas State’s last three games.

The Bobcats have been outscored 202-87 this season behind an offense that is well down the list in both passing and running the ball while averaging just 14.5 points per game. Senior quarterback Damian Williams has completed 54.1 percent of his 146 attempts for 895 yards, and he has as many touchdown throws as interceptions with four of each. Texas State is averaging 131.5 rushing yards per game, which is tied for 97th in the nation. On the other side of the ball, its defense is giving up 33.7 PPG.

The Ragin’ Cajuns are off to a 2-3 start both SU and ATS, but they do bring some momentum into this game following Saturday’s 21-16 victory against Idaho as 5.5-point road underdogs. The total stayed UNDER the closing 61.5-point line in that game after it went OVER in their first four outings. UL Lafayette has lost four of its last six games at home SU and the total has stayed UNDER in five of its last seven home games.

This offense is averaging 36.6 PPG behind a solid balance between the pass and the run. Both Jordan Davis and Andre Nunez have taken turns at quarterback, and in last week’s victory against Idaho Nunez had the hot hand by completing 18 of his 24 passing attempts for 213 yards and a score. Trey Ragas has led the ground game with 453 yards rushing and five touchdowns on 63 carries. Louisiana’s defense has really been suspect the entire season with a points-allowed average of 46.2 PPG.

 

Game Betting Trends
  • The Bobcats are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 conference games and they have failed to cover in 10 of their last 14 games on the road. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last eight games against a team in the Sun Belt Conference.
  • The Ragin’ Cajuns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in the conference, but they fall to 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven games at home.
  • Louisiana has won the last four meetings in this conference clash both SU and ATS with the total staying UNDER in two of the last three meetings.

 

Texas State at Louisiana Verdict

Both of these teams appear to have very little interest in playing defense, but Louisiana has the clear edge in this matchup when it comes to putting points on the board. I do not trust Texas State to keep pace on the scoreboard to take this game OVER 57 points, but I do trust the Ragin’ Cajuns as my top NCAAF pick to cover the current 13.5-point spread.

Free NCAAF Pick: ULL -13.5Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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