UCLA & Arizona to Top 59.5: Look to Total With Your NCAAF Picks

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, September 30, 2015 11:37 AM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 30, 2015 11:37 AM UTC

In this Pac-12 matchup we have the 4-0 UCLA Bruins hosting the 2-2 Arizona State Sun Devils, with the Bruins looking to defend a #7 national ranking in most polls. In conference play, the Sun Devils are 0-1 and the Bruins are 1-0 – and with perennial powers USC and Oregon already posting a loss, the conference is still up for grabs.

The Sun Devils are coming off of a 42-14 loss against USC in which turnovers where a major issue, including a fumble on the 1-yard line that was returned 94 yards for a touchdown the other way. They lost two other fumbles and had an interception in the game as well, for good measure. USC took advantage of all of these turnovers to build a 35-0 halftime lead and the rest was history.

Hidden in the final score however is that the Sun Devils were barely nudged out in total yards of offense by one yard, 455 to 454. They were blown out in the game but stuck to the run, outgaining the Trojans 182 to 76 yards on the ground while averaging 5.2 yards per rush. Basically the Sun Devils were three lucky bounces away from being very competitive in this game.

The Bruins were impressive in their last game against Arizona, winning on the road to the tune of 56-30. That’s a lot of points, and 56 points were put up in the first half between both teams. The Bruins also put up 497 total yards of offense, but gave up 468. Incredibly, 353 of those yards that UCLA surrendered were on the ground and they still won the game. Part of the reason the Bruins defense was gashed was the absence of 3 starters on defense who have been lost for the season due to injury. This includes standout LB, Myles Jack, DE Eddie Vanderdoes, and starting CB Fabian Moreau. It’s one of the reasons that UCLA missed 21 tackles last Saturday as well.

Being that the Bruins are coming off a blowout, and the Sun Devils were just blown out, it is not surprising college football odds opened UCLA as a 13.5 favorite at home. The O/U total opened at 57.5, but has since climbed to 60 at multiple online sportsooks, although you can still find it at 59.5 if you shop around. That would be, if you want to take the over that is.

The current form between these two teams suggest that a high scoring affair could be in order, as the over is 5-0 in their last five meetings. Hell, UCLA could cover the over by themselves if they perform as well as they did last year against the Sun Devils when they put up 62 points on the road. The numbers they’ve had to beat were substantial as well with the O/U total posted at 59.5 or more the last three years. The form ATS is a little more nebulous, with UCLA being 7-3 in the last ten meetings, but with only one of those spreads being 10 points or more.

The College Football Pick: With UCLA’s defense scrambling to recover from injuries, and the Sun Devils showing they can put up good offensive numbers (other than the score), I’m inclined to follow the rest of the crowd and take the over in this matchup. No matchup between these teams in the last three years has had a total less than 70, so don’t let the O/U shift to 60 scare you off. One of these teams will post 40+ points and the other will do enough damage in garbage time to put the final score over the posted total. Take over 59.5 at Pinnacle as one of your College Football Picks this weekend.

Free College Football Pick: Arizona State cs. UCLA Over 59.5 at Pinnacle

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