UCF to Cover Thursday's NCAAF Point Spread vs. Houston

Jeff Grant

Monday, September 29, 2014 8:08 PM GMT

The UCF Knights have covered the number in their last four Thursday night games dating back to 2012, which makes them dangerous road underdogs against the Houston Cougars.

Choppy Schedule
UCF is coming off its second bye week of the 2014 campaign already, which is important to consider when making your Week 6 College Football picks, as it was last seen picking up a 41-7 victory over Bethune-Cookman as 23-point home favorites on Sept. 20.

The Knights are 4-1 SU all-time against the Cougars, with four of the five games in the series being decided by seven or fewer points, including a 19-14 win as 13.5-point home favorites in last year’s meeting.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the program is 3-5 SU and 5-3 ATS as underdogs, with no clear edge in terms of the betting total (4-4 Over/Under).

 

Forcing Turnovers
After leading the country in 2013 with a plus-25 turnover margin and 43 turnovers gained, Houston is hoping to pick up the pace in those categories moving forward, as it has a plus-three margin and 13 turnovers faced through four games this year.

The Cougars have forced a turnover in 27 consecutive contests, which can’t be ignored when looking over the College Football odds page, especially since they’ve caused opponents to make multiple miscues in 23 of 25 games.

College football handicappers will find that the squad is 13-5 SU and 10-8 ATS as favorites since the start of the 2012 campaign.

 

Conference Play
The Knights have notched a victory in four consecutive conference openers, which fits nicely with their nine-game win streak in regular-season league games under longtime head coach George O’Leary.

UCF’s offense should continue to improve throughout the year as it moves past the Blake Bortles era, as signal-caller Justin Holman sits 33rd nationally in passing efficiency, while the unit has increased its yardage production in every game.

 

O’Korn Needs to Pick It Up
John O’Korn is completing 52.7 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and six interceptions—disappointing numbers for the Cougars sophomore quarterback that finished last year with 28 scoring strikes and just 10 picks a season ago.

He completed 24 of 46 passes for 231 yards and a touchdown with an interception against the Knights during his freshman campaign.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Knights as one of their Week 6 college football predictions, as they’ve gone 4-0 SUATS when playing on Thursday the last two-plus seasons.

It’s also important to point out that Houston is 2-5 SUATS when this Week 6 betting line is between +3 to -3 over the same time period.

Free College Football Pick: UCF Knights +3 at 5Dimes

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