Auburn and Texas A&M have met for three high-scoring affairs over three seasons. How are we playing this game against the NCAAF odds? Let's check what seems to be a winning college football pick.
Tigers-Aggies Betting Odds
Most of this week's NCAAF odds market opened A&M at -7.5 over Auburn, with a total as low as 56. In the early betting, many shops then dropped the hook on the spread, but bumped the total as high as 59.
Auburn is 4-4 SU, just 2-6 ATS, after losing at home last week to Ole Miss 27-19. But it did hold on for the cover as an eight-point home dog. The Tigers only trailed by a point at 20-19 early in the fourth quarter, but ran out of downs on a late drive, and eventually out of time. On the day Auburn got out-first-downed 27-18, outgained 558-427 and averaged just three yards per carry on 41 rushing attempts.
Two weeks ago, the Tigers lost to Arkansas in overtime 54-46; just before that they won consecutive games against San Jose State and Kentucky. Still, Auburn has been outgained each of its last four games, by about 80 yards per.
A&M is 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, after snapping a two-game losing streak with a 35-28 victory over South Carolina last week. But the Aggies, with freshman quarterback Kyler Murray making his first career start, couldn't cover at -14. They led by 14 in the third quarter, thanks in part to a pick-six, but couldn't quite finish the job.
On the day A&M won first downs 29-19, racked up 544 yards of total offense, 321 on the ground, but also gave up 445 yards, 253 of those on the ground.
Two weeks ago the Aggies lost at Ole Miss 23-3 as six-point dogs, and three weeks ago they lost to Alabama 41-23 as five-point home dogs. So A&M is 0-3 ATS over its last three games.
Tigers-Aggies Common Opponents
These two teams have played three common opponents so far this season; Arkansas, Ole Miss and Mississippi State. The Aggies are 2-1 both SU and ATS against those three foes, the Tigers 0-3 both SU and ATS. But both teams took the Razorbacks to overtime, where A&M got a little lucky and covered, while Auburn got a little unlucky and did not. Also, the Tigers played those three opponents to net -109 yards, while the Aggies came in at -203.
Tigers-Aggies Recent Rivalry
Texas A&M is 2-1 SU and ATS against Auburn since joining the SEC three seasons ago, including a somewhat shocking 41-38 upset of the Tigers last season, as three-touchdown underdogs. Auburn outgained the Aggies that day 582-453 and won the ground game 363-176, but gave up a 60-yard touchdown pass on the first drive of the game, another on a fumble return, and late in the game fumbled one away at the A&M two-yard line. In all, three Tigers turnovers probably cost them 17 points.
Auburn is 2-4-2 on the totals this season, as Tigers games have averaged 57 points.
A&M is 4-4 on the totals, as Aggies games have also averaged 57 points.
Tigers-Aggies Free NCAAF Picks
We're tempted to take Auburn plus the points here, but the Tigers are a little banged-up at key positions, including at QB, where Sean White is hobbled by a sore knee. Also, Auburn has been outgained in every game this season expect one. Meanwhile, Murray looked pretty damn good for a first-time starter last week, accounting for 380 yards of offense and two scores, with nary a turnover. So for our free NCAAF pick on the side, we like A&M. As for the total, these two defenses are allowing a combined 840 yards of offense per game this season, and the three meetings between these teams over the last three seasons have averaged 83 total points. So we're thinking OVER.
Free NCAAF Picks: Aggies -7 (-105) and OVER 59.5 (-106) at Pinnacle