Turnover Disparity & Strong Defense Make Florida -21 the College Football Pick vs. Vanderbilt

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, November 3, 2015 11:49 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2015 11:49 PM UTC

We’re going to examine Saturday’s SEC battle between Vanderbilt and Florida. Go inside to read our thoughts and analysis pertaining to this contest which also includes a college football pick.

Commodores in “The Swamp”
The #11 Florida Gators will host the Vanderbilt Commodores on Saturday in a SEC matchup. The opening kickoff at “The Swamp” in Gainesville is slated for Noon ET. According to current college football odds at Pinnacle, Florida is a 21-point favorite. Florida defeated Vanderbilt last season in Nashville by a score of 34-10, and easily covered as a 14.5 point favorite.


Turnover Differential
The Vanderbilt Commodores have been their own worst enemy this season. They’ve turned the ball over 21 times in their first eight games, and are at a -9 turnover differential this season. Contrarily, Florida is the polar opposite side. The Gators are at a terrific +13 turnover differential on the year.


Struggling Offense
Aside from their turnover issues that were previously mentioned, it’s been a real struggle for the Vanderbilt offense this season. As a matter of fact, the Commodores have scored 17 points or less in all seven of their games this year against FBS opponents. It should then come as no surprise that all seven of those games stayed under the total. The only time they exceeded that point total was during a 47-7 win against Austin Peay who plays at the FCS level. The offensive futility has really reared its ugly head during the previous three games. During that stretch, Vanderbilt has scored 10 points or less on each occasion, and was also shutout at Houston last week.


Impressive Gators Defense
The Florida Gators have allowed 13 points or less in five of their eight games this year. The stop unit was especially stout during last Saturday’s 27-3 win over Georgia. They held the Bulldogs to a mere 223 yards of total offense, and forced 5 turnovers.


Final Thoughts and Picks
When I originally began to dissect this game, my intuition kept insisting that Florida was in for a letdown this week. After all, they dismantled arch rival Georgia in their previous contest, and are about to face a perennial SEC bottom feeder in Vanderbilt. I quickly made an about face after going inside the numbers. I’m not a proponent of laying this many points, and as a result, I’ll have just have a small lean toward the sizable home favorite for one of my college football picks.

College Football Picks: Play on Florida -21 (-103) at Pinnacle

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2830119, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,19,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here