Tulsa vs. UCF: Large Spread to Offer Value for Our NCAAF Picks

Ross Benjamin

Monday, November 10, 2014 7:59 PM GMT

SBR contributor Ross Benjamin has gone a stellar 25-11 (69%) with his 2014 college football free picks. Join us in reading his NCAA football betting preview article on the game between Tulsa/UCF that culminates with a free pick.

Former CUSA Rivals Collide in the AAC
The Central Florida Knights will host the Tulsa Golden Hurricane on Friday at Bright House Networks Stadium in Orlando with the opening kickoff slated for 8:00 PM ET. According to BetOnline, Central Florida is an 18.0 point favorite, and none of the major sportsbooks had posted a total for College Football Odds at the time of this writing. These teams last met in the Conference USA championship game in 2012, and Tulsa came away with a 33-27 win. Both teams are now members of the newly formed American Athletic Association Conference.

 

Not the Same Old Tulsa
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane football program went a stellar 54-25 from the start of the 2007 season until the completion of the 2012 campaign. As a matter of fact, they were a superb 20-2 in games versus conference opponents from 10/16/2010 and right up to the previously mentioned CUSA title game win in 2012. However, since the start of the 2013 season, they’ve gone a dismal 5-16 straight up, 6-15 ATS, and 4-9 in conference play. On a positive note, they come off a 38-28 home win last Saturday over SMU, and are now 2-7 on the year. The Golden Hurricane has seen 8 of their 9-games go over the total this season, and that includes each of the last 4. Unfortunately, the main reason for those high scoring games was a result of a defensive unit that’s been extremely porous. The 28-points they held SMU to last week was the lowest they had surrendered so far this season. They’re allowing an average of 39.2 points and 483.2 yards per game. Tulsa has gone 0-4 on the road this season, and has been outscored by an average of 21.2 points per game.

 

Winning Streak Comes to an End for the Knights
Central Florida was upset at Connecticut last Saturday as an 8.0 point favorite by the score of 37-29. The defeat halted a 5-game win streak, and was due in part to turning the ball over 4-times, and forcing only 1 takeaway. The Knights are a perfect 4-0 at home this season, and have covered 3 of the 4 while outscoring the opposition by an average of 17.0 points per game. The one glaring weakness for the Knights in 2014 has been the lack of any kind of running game. They’ve averaged only 105-yards per game on the ground, and a paltry 2.8 yards per rushing attempt. The good news is that they’ll be facing a Tulsa defense which has allowed 216-yards rushing per game, and a mammoth 5.8 yards per carry. Head coach George O’Leary has led the football program at Central Florida into a relevant player on the national stage. The Knights have gone 25-6 in their last 31-games, and that includes a BCS Bowl 52-42 win over Baylor this past New Year’s Day.

 

College Football Betting System
Any conference home favorite of 12.5 to 21.5, coming off a conference away favorite of 21.0 or less straight up loss, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .125 or better, has gone 64-31 ATS (67.3%) since 1996. This system clearly favors Central Florida, and that’s the side I’ll use for one of my College Football Picks this week.

Free Pick: Central Florida -18.0 over Tulsa

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