Tulane & Wake Forest Thursday NCAAF Matchup Provides Under The Radar Value

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, August 31, 2016 7:17 PM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 31, 2016 7:17 PM UTC

This is a battle of projected also-rans in their respective conferences of the AAC West and ACC, but it offers some low key value at the spread. Our expert capper provides his insight. 

Tulane vs Wake Forest (-17) 7:00 ET

The Green Wave welcomes 1st year HC Willie Fritz to a team whose fortunes have disintegrated in the last 2 years under former HC Curtis Johnson. Witness the 6 - 18 SU record, featuring games in which they were outscored by an average of 32 - 18! Johnson could never get the offense on track, despite returning 7 or more offensive starters in each of his 4 seasons. They never averaged more than 347 YPG in any year. In the 1st year under HC Fritz, that figures to turn around, maybe sooner rather than later! His success at Georgia Southern was noteworthy, not only for his 17-7 SU record but for the 15 - 8 ATS mark, which provided followers with a huge profit. In the last 2 years alone, the Golden Eagles averaged 6.9/373 overland. 

Inheriting a massive OL is a good start for his spread-option offense. Unfortunately, only 4 starters return on offense and it is a group of skill position players, who are far more suited to the former aerial attack of Tulane (only 3.5/116 overland last year) than the preferred ground assault of their new coach.


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Wake Forest must be considered to be much further along in their own retooling process under 3rd year HC Clawson, who came to Winston-Salem with the 2013 MAC Title, courtesy of his Bowling Green team. 17 returning starters for Wake Forest, including experienced offensive and defensive line play, indicates that in his 3rd season, Clawson, with many of his own recruits, figures to have things going more to his liking. Last year’s offensive output increased by 117 YPG. 

This is easily Clawson’s best team in his 3 years at Wake. Unfortunately, the linemaker has factored that into today’s line. And with a league opener against rival Duke next week, the blowout may not be in the offing. After all, any victory would suffice for a team who lost their final 6 games of last year and for a team whose coach has won only 6 times in his 2 years at the school. But, it is far easier to change from a passing to a running offense than the opposite. 

I invite you to put the College Football odds in your favor and join me in my College Football pick on Tulane tonight.


Free College Football Pick: Tulane +17 (-105)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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