Tuesday Night in the MAC: Toledo -4 the College Football Pick

Ross Benjamin

Monday, November 9, 2015 8:56 PM GMT

Monday, Nov. 9, 2015 8:56 PM GMT

We’re going to examine Tuesday’s college football game between Toledo and Central Michigan. Go inside to read this revealing betting preview article that culminates with a point spread pick.

Another Tuesday Night in the MAC
Central Michigan (5-4) and Toledo (7-1) will square off in a MAC showdown on Tuesday night. The opening kickoff at Kelly/Shorts Stadium in Mount Pleasant, Michigan is slated for 8:00 PM ET. The game will be televised nationally by ESPN 2. At the time of this writing (11/9), College Football Betting Odds at BetOnline.com have Toledo as a 4.0 point road favorite, and the posted total is 52.5. Toledo has gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last five encounters with Central Michigan, and won those contests by an average of 17.6 points per game.

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Teams off First Loss in Late Season
Toledo entered last week’s home game against Northern Illinois with a perfect 7-0 record, and was ranked #21 in the AP Poll. Well the dream of a perfect season came to a screeching halt when they were upset by the Huskies 32-27. The Rockets squandered a 27-19 fourth quarter lead with less than ten minutes to play. The good news for Toledo, college football history is in their favor. Since 1980, teams playing in game 9 of the season or beyond, and are coming of their first loss of the season, resulted in those one loss teams going 89-28 (76%). More importantly for sports bettors in regards to the point spread in this contest, 77 of those 89 wins came by 5 points or more.

 

Cover Machines
Both of these teams have been outstanding against the spread this season. As a matter of fact, last week wasn’t only the first loss of the season for Toledo it was also the first time they failed to cover all year. The Rockets are now 6-1-1 ATS in their first eight games.

Despite Central Michigan entering this week with a mediocre 5-4 record, they’ve gone 8-1 ATS in those nine games. Their only blemish came two weeks ago during a 23-21 win at Ball State in which they failed to cover as a 7.0 point chalk. The Chippewas are 5-0 ATS as an underdog in 2015, although they went just 1-4 straight up in those games.

 

Final Thoughts and Pick
Both defenses have been very good this season, and that aspect of this game should be a wash. On paper these offenses look pretty even as well, but that’s a bit deceiving. Toledo is by far the more balanced offensive team of the two, averaging 223 yards rushing, and another 243 yards per game via their passing attack. That offensive balance will be the key factor in deciding the outcome, and one of my College Football Picks will be reflective of that exact though process.

College Football Pick: Play on Toledo -4.0 at BetOnline

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