Trends Suggest USC -16 is the College Football Pick vs. Colorado

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, November 11, 2015 12:37 AM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2015 12:37 AM GMT

We’re going to examine the Friday night matchup between USC and Colorado. Go inside to read our detailed betting preview article on this contest, which concludes with a college football pick.

Friday Night Lights Pac-12 Style
Colorado and USC will meet on Friday night in a Pac-12 battle. The opening kickoff at Folsom Field in Boulder, Colorado is slated for 9:00 PM ET. The game will be air by ESPN2. Current (11/10) college football odds at The Greek have USC as a 16-point favorite. Since Colorado joined the Pac-12 in 2011, USC has gone a perfect 4-0 against them, and the Trojans won by an average of 28.9 points per game.

 

USC Conference Championship Game Hopes
I don’t think it would be an understatement to say that USC endured a bit of tumultuous stretch during its first half of the season. Prior to the onset of the 2015 regular season campaign, USC was touted as one of a few favorites to win the national championship. However, after six games were played, they were sporting an extremely disappointing 3-3 record, head coach Steve Sarkisian was fired after a home loss to Washington, and their season was on the brink of being a total disaster. Since that time, they’ve managed to reel off three wins in a row, and are within 1.0 game of Pac-12 South Division leader Utah. As a matter of fact, their three game win streak began with a convincing 42-24 victory over then #3 ranked Utah, and that gives them a luxury of holding a head to head tiebreaker. The equation on paper is simple. If USC wins out, and Utah loses any of its remaining regular season games, the Trojans would then play in the Pac-12 title game against in all likelihood Stanford.

 

Assessing the Buffs
I tried finding any reason to side with the double digit home underdog in this game. Those efforts came up empty and let me tell you why. Colorado has lost five of its previous six games. Their only win in that sequence came by a narrow 17-13 margin at Oregon State. That’s a Beavers team which is 0-6 in Pac-12 action thus far. The Buffaloes are also 0-3 SU&ATS in conference home games, and lost by an average of 18.5 points per game. Expecting a huge upset in this game would be similar to going all in on a poker hand, and hoping to catch an inside straight on the river card. Another words, it’s possible but highly improbable.

 

Final Thoughts and Pick
One team (Colorado) is playing out the string, and the other (USC) has a lot to still play for. The worst thing that could’ve happened for Colorado pertaining to this matchup took place last week. USC turned in a rather uninspiring performance at home against an Arizona team that entered that contest struggling. The Trojans managed to escape with a 38-30 win, but didn’t come close to covering as a 19.0 point favorite. I’m looking for USC to rebound with a huge effort in Boulder on Friday, and one of my college football picks this week will echo that sentiment.

College Football Picks: Play on USC -16 over Colorado at Pinnacle

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