Trends Point Kentucky +5 Is The Smart College Football Pick Over Louisville

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, November 26, 2015 4:24 PM GMT

Our college football analyst provides us with a betting preview on Saturday’s game between Louisville & Kentucky. Who will be our college football pick in this matchup.

State Bragging Rights
Kentucky hosts Louisville on Saturday at Noon ET in a game for state bragging rights. Current (11/28) college football odds show a consensus of Louisville being a 5 point favorite, and a posted total of 53.5. Louisville has defeated Kentucky in each of the past four meetings, and that includes last year’s 44-40 home win.

 

Bowl Eligibility at Stake for Wildcats
Kentucky enters this contest with a 5-6 record, and needs a win to become bowl eligible. They were able to snap a five game losing streak last Saturday in a 58-10 home win over Charlotte. Kentucky went a disappointing 2-6 in SEC action this year, but has been a perfect 3-0 against non-conference opponents. As a matter of fact, you may be surprised to know, Kentucky is 29-3 in their last 32 non-conference home games, and that includes winning 7 straight. Ironically enough, two of those three losses came against Louisville.

 

A Winning Season on the Line
Louisville enters this regular season finale with a 6-5 record, and with a win will attain their sixth consecutive winning season. Considering they started this 2015 campaign by losing their first three games, the Cardinals are a very upbeat team at this juncture despite its mediocre record. They had a four game winning streak snapped last Saturday during a 45-34 loss at Pittsburgh. Louisville’s five losses have come against opponents with a combined record of 44-11 (.800) this season. Since 2011, Louisville has gone 10-2 in non-conference away games.

 

College Football Betting Angle
Louisville is averaging 7.8 yards per passing attempt this season. Contrarily, Kentucky is allowing 6.9 yards per passing attempt. These two pieces of data qualifies this game for a strong college football ATS betting angle.

Any team (Kentucky), playing in game 8 of the season or beyond, and they allow 5.6 to 6.4 yards per passing attempt, versus an opponent that averages 7.5 to 8.3 yards per passing attempt, resulted in that team going 43-15 ATS (74.1%) since 1992. The average line for those teams was +5.6, and they covered by 7.0 points or more 42.1% of the time.

This isn’t a game that I’ll personally be wagering on. I do have a mild opinion favoring the home underdog for one of my college football picks this week.

College Football Pick: Kentucky +5 at Bet365

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