Total Is Best Wager on Latest-Starting Game Saturday (Naturally in Hawaii)

Jason Lake

Thursday, November 9, 2017 1:57 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 9, 2017 1:57 PM UTC

The Fresno State Bulldogs are a fashionable college football pick for Saturday’s game at the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. Do they still have any value at –10?

Free NCAAF Pick: Under 53.5 Best Line Offered: Heritage

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Let me guess: You’re interested in fading the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (3-6 SU, 1-7-1 ATS) this Saturday. Who can blame you? The Warriors are one of the worst teams in the FBS, and they’ve dropped the cash in each of their last seven games. They’ll host the Fresno State Bulldogs (6-3 SU, 6-2-1 ATS), kicking off at 11 p.m. Eastern time; the Bulldogs have the best ATS record in the Mountain West, and they’re 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last four trips to Honolulu.

All well and good, but before you open your wallet and/or purse, we need to take a closer look at the NCAAF odds board. The Bulldogs opened at –9 Sunday night and quickly moved to –10, with our early consensus reports showing unanimous consent for Fresno State. Is there still any value on the Frezzies now that they’ve landed on one of college football’s magic numbers?


Aloha Oy

As always, we’ll consult the analytics department before we make any decisions. ESPN’s Football Power Index has Fresno State’s chances of winning pegged at 76.4 percent. Judging by the numbers at Wizard of Odds, that works out to ... drum roll, please ... Bulldogs –10. Shazbot.

And it was such a lovely college football pick, too. The Warriors have been in disarray pretty much since the day head coach June Jones walked out the door in early 2008. It got even worse when they moved from the WAC to the MWC for 2012. Norm Chow came in and switched the team from the run-and-shoot that brought them success under Jones to a pro-style offense that got them nowhere. Nick Rolovich took over last year and installed a hybrid offense; that doesn’t seem to be working, either.

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Rolovich says he will continue to choose offensive plays HawaiiFB

— Honolulu Now (@NowHonolulu) November 8, 2017

Playing in Honolulu doesn’t seem to much of a burden on their opponents, go figure. ESPN’s Brad Edwards and Seth Walder had the Warriors playing minus-2.31 Points Above Expectation at Aloha Stadium heading into the new season. With that in mind, let’s steer clear of the point spread and consider taking the UNDER. Saturday’s total has risen from 51.5 points to as high as 53.5, and the UNDER is 6-3 for each team this year, including each of their last four games. Saturday’s weather looks nice, though, so make it a small wager, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

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