Total the Bet for LSU vs. Florida Week 7 College Football Picks

Darin Zank

Tuesday, October 7, 2014 6:00 PM GMT

LSU is coming off its worst loss in 15 years; Florida just needed a fourth-quarter rally to avoid a second straight loss. Nobody says picking college football games against the betting lines is easy, and that's the case when it comes to handicapping Saturday night's Tigers-Gators game down at the Swamp.

The Betting Odds
As of Wednesday most college football betting odds were listing LSU at right around -1.5 points over Florida. The Gators can also be found getting around +105 on the money line.

 

Tigers-Gators: The Situation
Louisiana State is off to a 4-2 start, both SU and ATS. The Tigers opened with that 28-24 come-from-behind victory over Wisconsin in Houston, covering the spread as three-point favorites. They then beat Sam Houston 56-0, covering at -32, and topped Louisiana-Monroe 31-0, covering at -30. But LSU then lost at home to Mississippi State 34-29 as seven-point favorites, getting outgained by the Bulldogs 570-430.

LSU then romped over New Mexico State 63-7, covering at -43, but last week, with freshman Brandon Harris making his first start at quarterback, the Tigers found themselves on the wrong end of a 41-7 butt-kicking at Auburn. LSU trailed the Tigers 17-0 right out of the gate, and eventually got outgained 566-280.

Harris had looked good in relief duty against Mississippi State and New Mexico State, but struggled against Auburn, completing just three of 14 passes.

On the season Harris and fellow Tigers QB Anthony Jennings have completed just 53 percent of their throws.

So Louisiana State is 0-2 in SEC play for the first time since 2001.

Florida is off to a 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS start to this season. The Gators opened with a 65-0 victory over Eastern Michigan, covering at -40. They then defeated Kentucky, again, this time 36-30 in overtime, but came nowhere close to covering the spread as 17-point favorites. Florida then lost to Alabama 42-21, missing the cover as 14-point dogs. And last week the Gators scored the last 10 points of the game to edge Tennessee 10-9, winning that game at a pick 'em.

Florida got outgained by the Alabama Crimson Tide 645-200, managing to stay close through three quarters by recovering three Alabama fumbles, returning one for a touchdown.

Last week Florida trailed the Vols 9-0 into the fourth quarter, then pulled QB Jeff Driskel after he had thrown three interceptions. Freshman Treon Harris came on in relief, and led the offense to its only 10 points.

However, Harris is now suspended, as he deals with a legal matter, so it's back to Driskel this weekend for Florida.

On the season Driskel has completed just 55 percent of his passes, and has thrown more interceptions, six, than touchdown passes, five.

Take a Look at the Inflated Betting Odds for Week 7 College Football Picks!

Tigers-Gators Recent History
These teams have met every season since 1971. For the last 10 meetings both teams have been ranked, and four of those times both were ranked in the top ten. That's not the case this weekend, as neither team is ranked.

LSU has won and covered three of the last four meetings.

Last year the Tigers beat the Gators 17-6 at Death Valley, covering the spread as nine-point favorites. LSU outgained Florida that day 327-240 and outrushed the Gators 175-111.

 

Tigers-Gators Free Pick
At the moment, the way these two teams are playing, we're not sure we'd put a dollar on either of them. Our guess is this game might see some turnovers, little offense and a bunch of punts, and might be decided by a field goal. So instead of going with a side for our free NCAAF pick on this contest we'll look toward the total and go with the 'Under' at 5Dimes.

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