Top Week 14 Selections ATS for Your College Football Picks

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, December 2, 2015 1:20 AM GMT

I backed all favorites on my three top college football picks in Week 13 and it paid off on Georgia at -5 at Georgia Tech and Florida State -2 at Florida. Stanford beat Notre Dame but didn't cover. Here are my three Week 14 top picks on JustBet's odds.

Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green (-12 On College Football Odds)
This is the Mid-American Conference Championship Game in Detroit on Friday night. Northern Illinois is in the game for a sixth straight season and Bowling Green a third in a row. This then will be a rubber match between them. Two years ago, Bowling Green routed NIU 47-27 at Ford Field. Falcons quarterback Matt Johnson was the game's MVP, completing 21-for 27 for 393 yards and five touchdowns. But Northern Illinois didn't have to face Johnson last year because he was lost for the season due to a Week 1 injury. The Huskies rolled 51-17. And really that's the story of this game: the quarterbacks. Johnson is back for BGSU and is going to be the MAC Offensive Player of the Year. He is No. 1 in the nation in passing yards (4,465) and No. 2 in touchdowns (41). He needs 22 yards to pass Ben Roethlisberger's MAC record for yardage in a season and one TD to set the conference record in TD passes. Meanwhile, NIU will essentially be on its fourth-string QB. Drew Hare was the starter but was hurt in early  November. His projected backup, Anthony Maddie, had season-ending back surgery in September. Redshirt freshman Ryan Graham had been starting since Hare was hurt but left NIU's 26-21 loss to  Ohio in the regular-season finale with an injury and was replaced by true freshman Tommy Fiedler in his first collegiate action. And it's Fiedler who will start this game. This could be the finale at Bowling Green for Coach Dino Babers. He was rumored to take the Central Florida job but that proved false. He's in the mix at Syracuse.

College Football Picks: Bowling Green at JustBet. BGSU is 6-1 ATS in its past seven MAC games. NIU has covered one of its past six after a loss. The Huskies are 2-8 ATS in their past 10 December games.

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Southern Miss vs. Western Kentucky (-7 In NCAA Betting)
WKU hosts the Conference USA Championship Game with the Hilltoppers looking for the first conference championship in school history since moving to the FBS. I've had Western Kentucky on my top picks a couple of times this season and it has paid off every time. Why stop now? WKU has the expected C-USA Player of the Year in senior quarterback Brandon Doughty. He is just the third quarterback in FBS history to account for 4,000 yards passing and 40 touchdowns in consecutive seasons. Doughty is fifth nationally in yards this season with 4,181, first with 42 touchdowns and first in rating at 180.2 (Baylor's Seth Russell is technically No. 1 but out for season). WKU is the seventh team in C-USA’s 20-year history to finish undefeated in conference play and looks to become the first team to go undefeated and win the conference championship. The Hilltoppers have won 11 straight over conference opponents. Southern Miss, Brett Favre's alma mater, is a nice success story under third-year coach Todd Monken. He took over a program that was 0-12 in 2012. USM won a single game in 2013, just three last year but nine in 2015. The Golden Eagles' offense is no slouch, setting a school record for offensive touchdowns and hitting 50 points five times. These teams haven't played since 2012.

College Football Picks: WKU. I'm going simply by the best common opponent each team has played: Marshall.  The Herd routed Southern Miss 31-10 on Oct. 9 but lost at Western Kentucky last weekend 49-28. USM is 1-4 ATS in its past five vs. teams with a winning record. WKU has covered eight of its past 10 conference games.

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Texas vs. No. 12 Baylor (Total Of 70 For College Football Picks)
I have generally stuck with spreads in my top picks this year, but I feel pretty good about this total. It's basically a bowl game for Texas as the 4-7 Longhorns won't be playing postseason football. That was assured with a 48-45 home loss to Texas Tech on Thanksgiving night -- perhaps in Coach Charlie Strong's final home game? The one bright spot from that was that Texas freshman running back Chris Warren, in his first start, set a school freshman 276 yards with four touchdowns. He was the first Texas runner to reach 200 yards since current Kansas City Chief Jamaal Charles had 290 yards against Nebraska on Oct. 27, 2007. Baylor, meanwhile, can't win the Big 12 or reach the College Football Playoff but has a pretty good shot at  playing in a New Year's Six bowl with a win. But I have major concerns for that one  unstoppable offense now that third-stringer Chris Johnson, a former receiver, is at quarterback. Baylor was held to 21 points in a double-OT loss at TCU last week and Johnson was 7-for-24 passes for 62 yards with a pick and two fumbles. To be fair, it was a very rainy day in Fort Worth and looks pretty good in Waco on Saturday. Texas held Baylor to 28 points season in Austin but the Bears won by three touchdowns. I expect something similar to that.

NCAAF Free Pick: 'Under.' It has hit in six of Texas' past seven on the road. The 'under' is 4-0 in Baylor's past four in December.

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