Top Value College Football Picks for the Weekend

Darin Zank

Friday, November 21, 2014 10:20 PM GMT

It's a topsy-turvy college football betting world out there; teams that are up one week, winning games as underdogs, are often down the next, and teams that are down one week often bounce back to bite someone else in the rear end the next. We see three games that might play out along those lines Saturday afternoon.

Northwestern vs. Purdue
The 4-6 Wildcats, coming off their upset of Notre Dame in South Bend, visit the 3-7 Boilers in West Lafayette.

Northwestern just beat the Irish 40-37 in overtime, winning SU as a 17-point dog. The Wildcats received several gifts from the Golden Domers last week, such as a botched extra-point attempt that resulted in two points for Northwestern, a fumble as Notre Dame was trying to run out the clock that led to the game-tying field goal, a pair of Irish missed field goals, a poor coaching decision, and more. But good fortune like that, we believe, opens teams up for fade plays the next time out, because tables turn with such regularity in this game.

Purdue, meanwhile, has lost four games in a row SU, but is 4-1 ATS in its last five games and 6-3-1 ATS on the season. This tells us the Boilers have been underrated, on average, on the weekly betting lines. Purdue beat Illinois back in October, covered as an underdog against Michigan State, Minnesota and Nebraska, and had 16 points covered college football odds against Wisconsin until the Badgers kicked a field goal with seven minutes to go.

The Boilers also had last week off.

Free College Football Pick: Take Purdue PK at BetOnline

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Arizona State  vs. Washington State
The 8-2 Sun Devils, coming off a Pac-12 road loss at Oregon State, return home to host the 3-7 Cougars.

Arizona State had the inside track on winning the Pac-12 South again, but lost last week to the Beavers 35-27. Now the Devils needs wins and help to get back to the conference championship game.

Just before that, though, ASU had won give games in a row, going 4-1 ATS, with wins/covers against USC, Stanford and Notre Dame.

Wazzu, coincidentally, also played Oregon State its last time out, upsetting the Beavers in Corvallis two weeks ago 39-32. But just before that the Cougars had lost four games in a row both SU and ATS. Washington State is also now playing without QB Connor Halliday, who went down and out for the season with that nasty broken leg a few weeks ago. In his place the Cougars are starting freshman Luke Falk.

Finally, ASU has beaten WSU the last two seasons by scores of 46-7 and 55-21.

Free College Football Pick: Take Arizona State -15 at 5Dimes

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Utah vs. Arizona
The 7-3 Utes, coming off tough 20-17 overtime upset of Stanford down on the Farm, return home to host the 8-2 Wildcats.

Utah had been punching above its weight for a good part of this season, with wins over UCLA and USC, but then lost back-to-back games to Arizona State and Oregon. The Utes then outlasted the Cardinal last week, despite getting outrushed and outgained. In fact, Utah has been outgained in each of its last eight games.

Arizona, meanwhile, has won two in a row SU but lost three in a row ATS, after beating Washington last week 27-26 on a field goal at the buzzer. Still, the Wildcats cling to a slim chance to win the Pac-12 South, if the cards fall just right.

Also, Arizona has beaten Utah the last two seasons by scores of 34-24 and 35-24.

For your college football picks we'll fade the Utes, and go with Arizona in this spot, and we don't need the points; we'll go with the 'Cats to win this one outright.

Free College Football Pick: Arizona +172 on the moneyline at Pinnacle

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