Top Totals for Week 7: Go 'Under' on Huge TTU-WVU Number

texas tech football

Jay Pryce

Wednesday, October 11, 2017 3:14 PM GMT

Wednesday, Oct. 11, 2017 3:14 PM GMT

Here’s a trio of top totals picks for Week 7, with predictions for the Florida State-Duke, Texas Tech-West Virginia, and Cincinnati-South Florida matchups.

Florida State at Duke (44)

Florida State head coach Jimbo Fisher and Duke’s David Cutcliffe have squared off three times. The final score for each contest is nearly identical, the Seminoles winning each: 41-16 (2011), 48-7 (2012) and 45-7 (2013). Each season Florida State's defense is faster, stronger and more skilled in nearly every facet of the game compared to the Blue Devils offense. Nothing has changed here. Duke averages 4.4 yards per play, 116th nationally, despite facing some below-average units against Baylor and North Carolina.

Where the scoreline will be different this time around is due to Florida State’s anemic offense. The squad is averaging 18.5 points per game, has yet to score more than 26 in a contest and has failed to eclipse a team total all season. In fact, its 4.7 yards per play is barely better than the Blue Devils. The FSU unit is missing first-team quarterback Deondre Francois badly.

Fisher’s Seminoles entered each of the last three Duke matchups averaging 34 points or more per tilt. Oh, and Duke’s 20 points-per-game defensive average is its lowest PPG allowed entering any of the prior three meetings. Expect a very low-scoring, ugly contest.

Free NCAAF Pick: Under 44Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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No. 24 Texas Tech at West Virginia (79.5)

As of publication, the betting market predicts Texas Tech will score at least 37 points at West Virginia this weekend with a game total at 79.5 points. Historically, this isn’t a spot the high-flying Red Raiders offense shines. Behind head coach Kliff Kingsbury, the unit averages 29.6 points in road conference games with a single-digit line. The Air Raid attack has put up 26 and 37 at Mountaineer Field, respectively, under these conditions in the past.

West Virginia also tends to keep it low scoring under the same situation with Dana Holgorsen at the helm. Since 2011, in home conference tilts with a single-digit line, the Mountaineers average 30.1 points per game and have seen all five contests with a total of 70 points or higher stay under.

Each defense has just enough moxie to counter each other’s attacks. Both units rank in the top half of opponent third-down conversation rate nationally at 37.7 (Texas Tech) and 36.9 (West Virginia) percent, respectively. There will be a ton of yardage, but drives will stall and the end zone tough to find. Neither team runs away with it.

Free NCAAF Pick: Under 79.5Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Cincinnati at No. 18 South Florida (69)

Let’s not overthink this one. South Florida leads the nation in scoring with 48.2 points per game. It has tallied 151 in its last three games, going over betting market projections by 24 points overall. Quarterback Quinton Flowers and crew are heating up and are healthier than at any point in the season coming off a bye week. The Cincy defense will end up a punching bag in this contest.

The Bearcats allow 6.8 yards per play, ninth worst in the country. They have allowed 40, 42, and 51 points in their last three conference games. Last week’s 51-23 defeat against Central Florida could have been even more embarrassing. Officials abandoned the contest at the end of the third quarter due to inclement weather. The Knights were destined to score 60-plus.

Flowers has picked the Cincy defense apart in two prior meetings, leading the offense to 7.2 yards per play while accounting for 6 TDs. The Bulls score well north of its team total in this one. The Bearcats find the end zone a few times as well.

Free NCAAF Pick: Over 69Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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