Top Totals for Week 12: Tulane Won't Score Much vs. Houston

Jay Pryce

Wednesday, November 15, 2017 4:29 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 15, 2017 4:29 PM UTC

A trio of ‘under’ bets is on tap for this week’s top totals picks. Check out why the Navy-Notre Dame, Tulane-Houston, and Nevada San Diego State games will each struggle to tally points.

Navy at No. 9 Notre Dame (60.5)

Navy’s option attack is not as potent this season, which will spell doom against powerhouse Notre Dame in this longest-running intersectional rivalry (91st straight year). Twice the Midshipmen have kicked off underdogs this season, scoring 27 and 21 points, respectively, vs. Memphis and Central Florida. Navy was held to 4.4 yards per carry in the losing efforts, staying south of its projected team total by a touchdown in each. Notre Dame sports a better rushing defense vs. FBS competition than either the Tigers or Knights, allowing 4.0 yards per attempt (Central Florida 4.2, Memphis 4.4). Finding the end zone will be a chore for the visitors.

Last week’s 41-8 rout by Miami is just the third time all season the Fighting Irish haven’t eclipsed their team total. They tallied just 261 total yards and committed four turnovers. At times, head coach Brian Kelly’s group appeared its own worst enemy. In case you needed a reminder, here is sophomore quarterback Brandon Wimbush gifting Malek Young the second of his three interceptions thrown:

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Video of the Young interception. Wimbush is struggling.....Canes 20-0. Incredible first half so far @TheStateOfTheU

— John Pickens (@Jpickens15) November 12, 2017

It will be telling to see how Wimbush, who bruised his hand in the loss, and the offense rebound from the effort. The unit has been playing above expectations all season. Clock management will be emphasis for both teams. Each will look to keep the other’s run game off the field. Notre Dame ranks sixth in the nation with 303 yards per game. Time will tick away and the total will be tough to match.

Free NCAAF Pick: Under 60.5Best Line Offered: Heritage

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Houston at Tulane (52.5)

Tulane owns the second worst offense in the AAC at 380 yards per game. The option-attack team has struggled against good run defenses when kicking off underdogs. Since Willie Fritz installed the offense last season, the Green Wave average 13.2 points per game when catching points on the oddsboard against foes holding opponents to lower than 4.0 yards per carry. Houston enters ranking 36th nationally, yielding 3.9 yards. 

Offensively, the Cougars have yet to score more than 28 points in four road contests, averaging 21.0 overall. Look for another low-scoring effort here against a tough Tulane D. This will be a bruising trench-warfare matchup. Houston is coming off a bye in which it had time to study and practice stopping the option attack.

Free NCAAF Pick: Under 52.5Best Line Offered: GT Bets

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Nevada at San Diego State (56)

The San Diego State defense has yielded a total of 14 points in its last nine quarters. Nevada, which puts up 29.2 points per game, will be lucky to match this number. Since Rocky Long took over head coaching duties in 2012, the Aztecs allow just 15.1 points per game to Mountain West foes scoring less than 30 points per tilt entering a matchup. Only five of 30 opponents have scored above their projected team total -- and overtime aided in one of those contests. The ‘under’ is 20-9-1 overall, staying 4.3 points below an average 52.2 total.

The fear here is that the Aztecs offense explodes, but it’s average compared to Long’s units in the past. The Wolf Pack allow 29.4 points per game at home under new head coach Jay Norvell, and one can bet they hold San Diego State close to the number. P

Free NCAAF Pick: Under 56Best Line Offered: BetDSI

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