Top Totals for Week 11: 'Over' Is Smart Bet in Iowa-Wisconsin

Jay Pryce

Wednesday, November 8, 2017 5:13 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 8, 2017 5:13 PM UTC

Our top totals picks for Week 11 feature a Friday night AAC showdown between Temple and Cincinnati, a Big Ten clash featuring No. 25 Iowa and No. 6 Wisconsin, and Texas A&M hosting slumping New Mexico.

Temple at Cincinnati (47.5)

Both the Owls and Bearcats enter this Friday night matchup in need of a win to remain bowl eligible. They also are playing their best football of the season, each coming off outright underdog wins backed by strong defensive play. Temple claimed a 34-26 victory over Navy as 6.5-point pups, while Cincy slipped past Tulane 17-16 catching 6 points on the college football oddsboard.

The ‘under’ is 9-1 in Temple’s last 10 AAC contests. The defense has held conference foes below their team total in five of its last six road tilts. Since the start of last season, the Owls allow 12.6 points per game to AAC opponents averaging fewer than 32.5 points on the year. Only one team (UConn 28) has scored more than 20 in eight contests. The Bearcats enter posting 20.6 points per game, last in the conference.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, has played four against conference opponents averaging 32.5 points or fewer in this span. The Bearcats allow 19.8 points per game in four played. Temple enters with the third worst offense in the AAC, putting up 22.3 per contest. Defense dominates for both programs. Points will be scarce.

Free NCAAF Pick: Under 47.5Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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No. 25 Iowa at No. 6 Wisconsin (46)

Wisconsin is a rushing powerhouse, leading the Big Ten with 2203 yards on 425 total carries (244.8 ypg). Although the Iowa defense is stout, it’s much better stopping lethal passing attacks. The Badgers may prove too tough in the trenches to keep the score down. Since 2016, Wisconsin averages 33.8 points per game against inefficient Big Ten rushing defenses allowing greater than 4.0 yards per carry. Iowa enters yielding 4.3 per rush to FBS opponents.

The Hawkeyes offense caught fire last weekend, pasting Ohio State 55-24 as 20-point home underdogs. It was the most points allowed by the Buckeyes under head coach Urban Meyer in their worst betting market defeat (-51 ATS margin). No way will Iowa come close to that figure again at Camp Randall Stadium, where the Badgers have yielded 30 points once to a conference opponent since 2014. Nevertheless, there is renewed confidence among head coach Kirk Ferentz’s unit, and it will keep Iowa close in the matchup. Look for a competitive Hawkeyes effort to push the total slightly ‘over.’

Free NCAAF Pick: Over 46Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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New Mexico at Texas A&M (51.5)

A SEC road date is the worst possible environment for a non-Power 5 offense on life support, especially one relying on the run. New Mexico is slumping, outscored 131-37 in its last four games. It is arguably the worst team in the Mountain West with issues on both sides of the ball. Head coach Bob Davie has started three different quarterbacks in search of answers for an offense averaging 21.0 points per game.

The Lobos rush the ball on 66.9 percent of plays, ranking 11th nationally. Texas A&M’s superior speed, strength and talent on defense will make gaining yards a challenge. After Week 2, once teams get past cupcake scheduling and their true strengths and weaknesses emerge, SEC teams hosting non-Power 5 opponents averaging more than 20 points and that rush the ball more than 39 times per game average 15.4 points and 3.3 yards per carry. The ‘under’ is 33-16-5 in this spot.

The Aggies have their own issues on offense, generating just 5.1 yards per play (97th nationally). Committing 1.4 turnovers per game, they are oftentimes their own worst enemy. Inefficiency in the red zone also plagues the unit, scoring 20 touchdowns in 37 trips inside the 20-yard line. Texas A&M won’t run away with the game, and the Lobos won’t run at all.

Free NCAAF Pick: Under 51.5Best Line Offered: Betmania

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