Top Picks For College Football Bowls, Saturday December 17th

Mark Lathrop

Saturday, December 17, 2016 2:47 PM UTC

Saturday, Dec. 17, 2016 2:47 PM UTC

Our college football handicapper breaks down his best totals picks of the day for Saturday, December 17th. He sees some great opportunities that you need to lock in fast!

2015-16 NCAAF Record: 38-33-2, +1.60 Units 

We have a slate of six bowl games on December 17th, and now that we are getting closer to kick off it’s time to take a look at my top plays of the day as we start bowling in 2016:

University of Texas – San Antonio vs. New MexicoNew Mexico Bowl 

Despite some great analysis earlier in the week by my fellow SBR contributors in picking the Over, the expected weather in Albuquerque on Saturday makes this a near lock on the Under of 59.5 in the New Mexico Bowl. A severe wind event is supposed to slam into the area on Friday, and with this game played early in the morning local time on Saturday, the effects will linger during game time. We are talking sustained winds of 20-25 mph still on Saturday with gusts of up to 35 mph.

One quarterback may be able to overcome the weather and put up some yards, but the odds of both having a great game here are limited. The O/U has dived since opening at 62.5, so grab the Under here at 59 at Bovada and watch the windsock create a right angle to the ground.

Free College Football Pick: Under 59Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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Houston vs. San Diego StateLas Vegas Bowl

If Albuquerque is going to be windy on Saturday, then so is Las Vegas at the time the Las Vegas Bowl will be played. Our SBR contributors love Houston in this game, but if this turns into a contest dependent on the running game it will even up the match up a little. San Diego State’s dependence on the run will be countered by Houston’s defensive strength, as the Cougars are only allowing 98 yards per game on the ground this year. Similarly, San Diego State only gives up 112 yards per game on the ground, and could find Houston’s pass-first defense hampered by the wind and turning reluctantly to their running game.

Remember it is usually wind, not precipitation, that effects most O/U results. For this game, all signs point to a favorable call on Under 52.5 points at Bovada.

Free College Football Pick: Under 52Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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Southern Miss vs. Louisiana-LafayetteNew Orleans Bowl

I covered this game with the Odds Couple, and the team total wasn’t out then, and still isn’t out now, but I love Southern Miss’s matchup with Lafayette’s secondary. I took Southern Miss at -3 early in the week, and the line has since moved up to -6.5 over at BookMaker. The O/U total has stayed pretty steady at 58 though across multiple books.

I’m expecting this team total to come in around 31.5 to 32.5, which should not be a problem for the Golden Eagles in this game. They have a fantastic running back in Ito Smith, a senior QB playing his last college game that holds the school record for touchdowns, and multiple big receiving targets. Add to this the perfect conditions in the Superdome and you have the ingredients for high scoring output. Look for the most reasonable team total to come out before game time at 5Dimes.

Free College Football Pick:  Southern Miss Team Total OverBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes


For More Info On All The Bowls Check Out Our Cheat Sheet

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