Top College Football Totals for Week 10

Jay Pryce

Wednesday, November 1, 2017 2:31 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 1, 2017 2:31 PM UTC

It’s a Big Ten bonanza for this week’s top totals picks. Check out our best over/under bets in the Ohio State-Iowa, Wisconsin-Indiana, and Penn State-Michigan State matchups here.

No. 4 Wisconsin vs. Indiana (48.5)

Fact: Indiana has scored 20 points or more in Big Ten play in every game at Memorial Stadium since the start of 2015. It’s faced some of the conference’s best defenses, too, including Ohio State and Michigan twice, Penn State, and Michigan State. Even with a rash of injuries, new offensive coordinator Mike DeBord is finding a way to plug and play reserves to the tune of 27.0 points per game in 2017.

Wisconsin’s defense has yielded 9, 13, and 10 points in its last 3 games and has let just one team to score more than 20 on the season. It’s 12.8 allowed per contest is the second-fewest through Week 9 for the program since 1980. Despite the gaudy numbers, the unit is only holding teams to -1.4 points below their projected points total. The Badgers have played some darn right stinky offenses. Indiana’s is better than average. As of publication, the Hoosiers’ team total is 18 points.

The Badgers offense, meanwhile, is a rushing juggernaut, posting 246.6 yards per game on 46.0 carries. Since 2016, Indiana has squared off against six Big Ten foes averaging  5.0 yards or more per rush. It allows 35.2 points per game in this situation. Penn State racked up 45 points against the Hoosiers in the only matchup this season. Look for the Badgers to come close to going over the total single-handedly. Pick ‘over’ 48.5 points with Indiana chipping in a few points for the win.

Free NCAAF Pick: Over 48.5Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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No. 3 Ohio State vs. Iowa (52.5)

Longtime Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz, a former collegiate linebacker, takes pride in his always-tough Hawkeyes defense. No matter the strength of his team versus the opponent, visitors rarely run away with a contest at Kinnick Stadium. Don’t expect No. 3 Ohio State to do so either on Saturday. As double-digit home underdogs under Ferentz, Iowa is 7-1 ATS all-time, covering the number (+18) by 10.6 points per game. Defense keeps it close and scoring down. None of the eight matchups have combined for more than 48 points, despite kicking off with a 50.5 average total. The Buckeyes travel to Iowa City 17.5-point favorites with an over/under set at 52.5. The total is slowly dipping down, so jump on the ‘under’ early at one of these top-rated online sportsbooks for optimal value.

Free NCAAF Pick: Under 52.5Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 24 Michigan State (47.5)

Since 2016, only one Big Ten defense (Michigan) has kept Penn State from scoring more than it allows for the season entering a contest. The Nitanny Lions average 14.8 points better then the units yield in this spot. Michigan State’s defense hosts the fight for the Land Grant Trophy giving up 19.6 per tilt. Don’t be shocked if Penn State drops 30-plus.

The Spartans’ offensive production will determine the winning side of the over/under. In 2017, the team is scoring 19.0 points per game in regulation time versus conference foes, though it has squared off against some of the better defenses such as Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota. None are tougher than Penn State. It enters allowing .176 points per play versus FBS competition, ranking second nationally. Still, Michigan State will find a way to manage 14 points or more. It has done so in all but two of its last 37 contests in East Lansing. The total is dropping slowly from a 48.5 opener. Wait it out and go against the line movement. Pick ‘over’ the total.

Free NCAAF Pick: Over 48Best Line Offered: Heritage

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