Top Betting Value On the LSU Moneyline vs. Arkansas

Kevin Stott

Thursday, November 13, 2014 2:21 PM GMT

The toughest division in all of NCAAF, the SEC West serves up another primetime beauty on Saturday evening as LSU heads to Arkansas to face the Razorbacks. So what’s the bet here if there even is one.

#20 LSU vs. Arkansas (Sunday 01:00) Saturday, (ESPN2/Watch ESPN, 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT)
This game between the host Arkansas Razorbacks (4-5 SU, 7-2 ATS) and 20th-ranked (AP) LSU (7-3 SU, 7-2-1 ATS) at Donald W. Reynolds Razorbacks Stadium in Fayetteville on Saturday night and probably only has significance to bettors and hardcore alumni and, eventually in what bowl game LSU ends up playing in although a loss here would probably hurt the Tigers’ pride more and possibly drop them out of the Top 25.

With these two teams combined 14-4-1 ATS, picking a point spread winner seems hard, although picking the Money Line (Winner) in this game (Arkansas -130, LSU +110, Pinnacle) is pretty much the same thing as they are really only separated in the betting world by a potential 1-point Arkansas win. The Total Points is set at 47½ (BetVictor), so, a fairly low-scoring game is expected on the Sportexe playing surface in Fayetteville.

A random prop bet for this one: Highest Scoring Quarter (BetVictor): 2nd Quarter +150, 4th Quarter +170, 1st Quarter +500, 3rd Quarter +500.

 

LSU Tigers
The Bayou Bengals will be Underdogs for three straight weeks for the first time since 1999 (Weeks 9-11) and #20 LSU will definitely be in a foul mood after a heartbreaking 20-13 loss to #4 Alabama in Baton Rouge last Saturday night. What’s good for the Tigers and potential LSU backers here is that the last two times LSU (2-2 SEC) lost to Alabama (in 2012 and 2013), the Tigers ran off three-game win streaks. Head coach Les Miles (58-56-10 ATS) and LSU (10-3 SU L13) are 4-1 L5 SU against Arkansas but just 3-6 ATS L9 versus the Razorbacks. And after playing the #4 Crimson Tide and #10 Ole Miss in back-to-back weeks, the Tigers will be more than happy with a Saturday night date with Woo Pig Sooie Nation.

LSU is led by QB Anthony Jennings (1,266 yards, 9 TDs) and the 6-foot-2, 216-pound sophomore has some speedy dudes to get the ball to in RB Leonard Fournette (152 rushes, 736 yards, 7 TDs) and WRs Travin Dural (30 receptions, 701 yards, 7 TDs) and Malachi Dupre (12 receptions, 271 yards, 5 TDs, 22.6 ypc), among others. And with those type of breakaway, home run threats on the field, that Total of 47½ may look a little low come halftime.

When these two teams meet last season, LSU squeaked by 31-27 as massive 28-point favorites on college football odds while the last time these two met here in Arkansas (2012), the Tigers won 20-13 but did not cover as 12-point Favorites.

 

Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas (0-5 SEC) heads into this game on a 17-game SEC losing streak, but the mere fact the oddsmakers have the Razorbacks favored here shows how tight this SEC Division clash should be. But betting on a team which hasn’t won a conference game in ages just doesn’t sound smart and with LSU’s stingy defense, host Arkansas (3-6 SU L9 Home) will have to do everything right, get an off game from the Tigers, get the breaks and win the TO battle and that may be asking just a bit too much. Even with the 17th best Rushing attack (248.2 ypg) in the nation led by the dynamic RB duo of Jonathan Williams (877 yards, 10 TDs) and Alex Collins (840 yards, 10 TDs), the feel in this one is that points will be hard to come by for the homeboys.

One simple way to approach this game is to notice that head coach Bret Bielema’s (11-9 ATS) Razorbacks lose to good teams—(then-ranked) #6 Auburn, #6 Texas A&M, #7 Alabama, #10 Georgia and #1 Mississippi State—and beat bad to average teams (Nicholls State, Northern Illinois, UAB and Texas Tech). And #20 LSU is definitely qualifies as a good team and always is in the mix and will not want to be the team that finally loses to these Razorbacks (1-4 SU L5 vs. LSU). Plus, to hit that coveted 10-win mark, the Tigers need to win out over Arkansas, at #24 Texas A&M on Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 27) and then their bowl game.

 

Best Betting Approaches
The Totals trends somewhat point toward the Over here. The Over is 6-2 L8 in this series 7-3 in the L10 Arkansas games and 4-1 L5 Home in Razorbacks games, although the Under is 4-1 the L5 LSU contests. But the side information and trends is a complete mixed bag. With LSU 12-5 SU L17 on the Road, it seems a foregone conclusion that a ranked team would be able to beat a team on a 17-game conference losing streak. But the mysterious tactic of betting Unranked Home Favorites has proven to be eerily good in both college football and college basketball through the years so maybe the oddsmakers have it right and Arkansas runs all over an LSU team potentially worn out from having to play Alabama and Mississippi back to back. When making your college football picks keep in mind that the big trend here is that Arkansas is 6-1 ATS L7 against LSU but sometimes you have to just throw the trends out the window and go with your gut and it says LSU, thanks in great part to its 5th-ranked Scoring Defense (16.5 ppg), will somehow find a way to win this one at Arkansas and the Razorbacks will be sitting on an 18-game SEC losing streak come Sunday morning.

College Football Picks: LSU Moneyline at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":294403, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]