Top 11 ATS Cats and Rats for Week 5

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, September 26, 2017 7:15 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 26, 2017 7:15 PM UTC

Let’s take a look at at our latest 11 ATS Cats and Rats list which has seen some movement and finds a new King Rat, Connecticut—and a new King Cat in Utah which held off Arizona in Tucson on Friday night to improve to 4-0 ATS on the year and win its fifth straight against the betting number overall.

Top 11 College Football ATS Cats List (September 25, 2017)


1. Utah 4-0 ATS (Last Week: #10)

The Utah Utes (4-0 SU/ATS) grab the top Cats’ spot while the majority of the teams in this Top 11 ATS Cats list suffered their first ATS Losses of the 2017 NCAA Regular Season as a statistical reversion to the mean and the beginning of Conference play affected many higher-profile teams. Thirteenth-year HC Kyle Whittingham (80-67-3 ATS) and #23 Utah have played +3.5 ppg better than the point spread, have a +1.5 ppg TO Margin in games versus FBS North Dakota, rivals BYU, San José State, and Arizona and the Utes (9-4 SU, 7-5 ATS in 2016) have W5 straight ATS overall dating back to last season. After a Bye Week in Week 5, Darren Carrington II (30 Receptions, 485 yards, 4 TDs, 16.2 ypc) and Utah face Stanford at Home at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City (UTAH 3-0 ATS L3) in Week 6 (Oct. 7) and the timing couldn’t be better. With starting QB Tyler Huntley (Shoulder) and DE Kylie Fitts both hurt in the win at Arizona in what Whittingham deemed non-season ending Injuries on Monday. Luckily for the Utes, senior Troy Williams (2,575 yards, 15 TDs in 2016) is on the Roster and can try to keep this undefeated ship headed in the right direction.


2. New Mexico State 4-0 ATS (Last Week: #11)

QB Tyler Rogers and New Mexico State (2-2 SU, 4-0 ATS) easily handled rivals UTEP, 41-14, in their Week 4 “Battle of I-10”, at Home on Saturday night.  The Aggies are making The City of Crosses a football town these days under 5th-year HC Doug Martin (24-26-1 ATS). New Mexico State (3-9 SU, 7-5 ATS in 2016) is 8-2 ATS L10 overall and have now W5 ATS and are +13.6 ppg better than the closing point spread. NMS (4-0 Unders) heads to Fayetteville on Saturday to face SEC side Arkansas (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) in a Week 5 Non-Conference game from the Razorback State.


3. Duke 4-0 ATS (Last Week: #6)

Another basketball school playing some good football of late, Duke (4-0 SU/ATS) has really made some nice strides in the ACC and 10th-year HC David Cutcliffe (61-41-5 ATS) being a huge part of the reason why. In Week 4, the Blue Devils won their first Road game of the season, topping North Carolina over in Chapel Hill, 27-17 for their 6th straight triumph over their Tobacco Road rivals. Coming up this weekend, Duke (4-8 SU, 6-5 ATS in 2016)—which has 5 consecutive ATS covers and are ranked #7 in FB in Total Defense—plays host to #14 Miami (Florida) in what possibly looks like a good spot to back the Home Underdogs and the Under at Wallace Wade Stadium (Grass) although the Hurricanes are 3-0 ATS the L3 in this series, losing outright as big 10-point chalks (30-27) when they last met at Duke in 2015.


4. Buffalo 4-0 ATS (Last Week: Honorable Mention)

Buffalo (2-2 SU, 4-0 ATS) leaps onto the Top 11 Cats list by virtue of its wonderful ATS start (+6.5 ppg better than Point Spread), and the Wiseguys have been all over the Bulls for this coming Week 5 Saturday game at Kent State driving the line up 3 points already to (Buffalo minus) 7½ (Bovada) from its opening 4½ on Sunday. And that sure seems like early, smart money with Kent State (1-3 SU/ATS) and its paltry 232.0 ypg of Total Offense (#127 of 129 teams) near the top of our 11 Rats List and Buffalo 5-0-1 ATS the L6 meetings at Dix Stadium (FieldTurf) in Dix, Ohio.


5. Iowa State 3-0 ATS (Last Week: #10)

After going 3-9 SU but a profitable 7-4 ATS in 2016, 2nd-year HC Matt Campbell (11-4 ATS) and upstart Big 12 school Iowa State (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) looked good against Northern Iowa, Iowa and Akron in Weeks 1-3 and the enjoyed a Bye Week last weekend as the Cyclones (+1.33 TO Margin per game) and prepared for their big Week 5 lidlifter on Thursday night from Jack Trice Stadium (Grass) in Ames against Texas. Despite how well the Longhorns looked at USC in Week 3, QB Jacob Park and Iowa State (+8.5 ppg vs Point Spread) can win this game outright (IA ST 3-1 ATS L4 vs. TEX) just like they did two years ago, shutting out Texas 24-0 in this same spot in the Hawkeye State. "There are a lot of guys here that were there for 24-0 (in Ames two years ago),” Texas Head Coach Tom Herman said on Monday. “There will be zero taking of (Iowa State) lightly." 


6.Georgia Tech (3-0 ATS) (Last Week: Honorable Mention)

The Rambling Wreck of Georgia Tech (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) check in at the No. 7 spot with the Yellow Jackets (487.0 ypg Total Offense, #26) benefiting from the fact they haven’t had to play a real Road game yet. On Saturday in Chapel Hill in Week 5, 10th-year HC Paul Johnson (57-49-5 ATS) and QB TaQuon Marshall get a test when the Tar Heels look to avoid a nasty 1-4 start in a game which has seen Sharps move the line from its opening (GT minus) 6½ (-115, BetOnline) up to 9½ (The Greek) in a series which has seen the Jackets (+14.7 ppg vs ATS) go 0-3 ATS L3 overall but 3-1 ATS L4 at Home in NeNe Leakesville.


7. SMU 4-0 ATS (Last Week: Honorable Mention)

Southern Methodist University once had two of the best Running Backs in a college backfield ever in Eric Dickerson and Craig James and the Mustangs are playing some good football (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS) for 3rd-year HC Chad Morris (16-10 ATS) but with questionable (long-term value-wise) SU Wins over FCS school SF Austin, North Texas and Arkansas State. The fortuitous schedule for SMU (+11.2 ppg vs ATS) continues this weekend on Saturday in Week 5 when maybe the rattiest of the Rats, Connecticut (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) heads to Gerald J. Ford Stadium (FieldTurf) in Dallas for an American Athletic Conference affair which should be over (SU-wise) by Halftime. The Mustangs are 2-0 SU/ATS vs. Connecticut which was a Division I-AA football program up until 1999 before the Huskies became a full-fledged Division I-A side in 2002 after a two-year transition period. SMU could possibly score 70 (points) of their own in this particular situation.


8. Northern Illinois 3-0 ATS (Last Week: Honorable Mention)

Northern Illinois (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) has been +9.7 ppg better than the Point Spread and the mighty MAC Conference Huskies upset Nebraska in Lincoln in Week 3, winning outright 21-17 as 11½-point Underdogs (NIU +350, 5Dimes). This Saturday in Week 5, the Huskies travel 2,015 miles and 2 Time Zones west to the Golden State to face #22 San Diego State (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) on Saturday in a game in which RB Jordan Huff (6.3 ypc) and fearless NIU can pull off the upset, although the Aztecs did whack (and cover ATS by ½) vs. NIU in DeKalb, Illinois last season in Week 3, 42-28 (SDS -13½).


9. Marshall 3-0 ATS (Last Week: Not ranked)

Randy Moss’s alma mater Marshall (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) scratches its way onto the Cat List and 8th-year HC John Holliday (43-40-4 ATS) and the Thundering Herd (+6.5 ppg vs ATS) are at Cincinnati on Saturday in Week 5 in a big test for the Conference USA visitors with the AAC’s Bearcats 3-0 ATS the L3 meetings and looking to go to 3-2 SU. The Thundering Herd are led by QB Chase Litton and a trio of solid WRs in Tyre Brady (19 Receptions, 373 yards, 19.8 ypc, 2 TDs), Marcel Williams (17 Receptions, 155 yards, 9.1 ypc, TD) and Willie Johnson (14 Receptions, 144 yards, 10.3 ypc, TD).


10. Fresno State 3-0 ATS (Last Week: Honorable Mention)

Fresno State (1-2 SU, 3-0 ATS) may have a losing (SU) Record, but the Bulldogs have been +15.2 ppg better than the Point Spread so far and are a weird team comparing their SU and ATS numbers (Fresno State went 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS in MWC play in 2016 and 1-11 SU overall but a profitable 7-4 ATS at the betting windows—where we keep track. This Saturday, 1st-year HC Jeff Tedford (3-0 ATS) and Fresno State are actually double-digit Home Favorites against Nevada in one a game probably just best left alone.


11. Southern Miss 3-0 ATS (Last Week: Honorable Mention)

Southern Mississippi (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) have been +6.7 ppg better than the Point Spread and the Golden Eagles and 2nd-year HC Jay Hopson (7-8 ATS) have W5 straight vs. the number dating back to last Regular Season. On Saturday in Week 5 against North Texas at Home at MM Roberts Stadium (Sportexe Momentum) in Hattiesburg, Mississippi, Southern Miss (456.3 ypg Total Offense, #46) will look to avenge a 29-26 defeat from last season as Road Favorites in Denton, Texas (SO MISS -6) and the early money has moved this line from its opening (Southern Miss minus) 10 down to as low as -8½ in the first 27 hours of betting late Sunday and Monday.


Honorable Catty Mentions

Oklahoma (3-1 ATS), Clemson (3-1 ATS), Georgia (3-1 ATS), Oklahoma State (3-1 ATS), Mississippi State (3-1 ATS), Wake Forest (3-1 ATS), San Diego State (3-1 ATS), Notre Dame (3-1 ATS), Purdue (3-1 ATS), UAB (3-1 ATS), Cal (3-1 ATS), Virginia Tech (3-1 ATS), Ohio (3-1 ATS), Texas A&M (3-1 ATS), Tulane (3-1 ATS), Rutgers (3-1 ATS), Ball State (3-1 ATS), Penn State (2-1-1 ATS).


Top 11 College Football ATS Rats List (September 25, 2017)


1. Connecticut 0-3 ATS (Last Week: Not ranked)

When you lose straight up at Home as a Point Spread favorite (-5) to the former No. 1 team on the 11 ATS Rats List (ECU), you definitely have earned the No. 1 spot if not the No. 0 spot on this bottom half of the 2017 College Football money-makers and money-takers list(s) and that’s what happened with Connecticut (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) after Week 4 with East Carolina going into East Hartford on Sunday and beating the Huskies (-10.8 ppg vs ATS), 41-38 in a game which had to be rescheduled due to Hurricane Irma and the AAC opener for both teams (ECU +170 Moneyline). This weekend, Connecticut is in Big D to face our No. 7 Cat SMU in a game where backing the Home chalks both 1st Half and Full Game seems prudent (SMU -18½).


2. East Carolina 1-3 ATS (Last Week: #1)

The Pirates have now L7-8 ATS after that aforementioned win (and ATS cover) at UConn but are still 2-12 ATS L14 ATS with ECU opponents averaging 51.9 ppg in those 8 games (64, 56, 34, 37, 66, 55, 45, 41). On Saturday in Week 5 vs. #18 South Florida at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium (Grass) in Greenville, NC (S-FLA -23, BetDSI), East Carolina (624.0 ypg on Defense (#129 of 129 in FBS) will really be up against it when QB Quinton Flowers and the high-scoring Bulls head into town (S-FLA 5-0 ATS L5 meetings). Second-year HC Scottie Montgomery (3-12 ATS) and the Pirates (3-9 SU, 2-9 ATS in 2016) have lost 9 TO’s in their 4 games.


3. Charlotte 0-4 ATS (Last Week: #2)

Charlotte (0-4 SU/ATS) has now gone 6-17-3 ATS since joining the FBS and becoming a lined team after losing 28-0 to Georgia State in Week 4 as 1-point favorites and the 49ers (L6 ATS) and 7th-year HC Brad Lambert (6-17-3 ATS) are -16.0 ppg worse than the posted Point Spreads, rank a dead-last 130th in (average) Yards Per Play on Offense (4.0), have been outscored by 31.0 ppg and have a -2.0 TO Margin per game (Tied #122). This weekend, Charlotte (-16.0 ppg vs. ATS) are at fellow Rat Florida International in a C-USA Conference affair in a game where early money has moved the line up 2½ from its Opening (FIU minus) 10. The 49ers have scored 7, 7, 31 (FCS NC A&T) and 0 points.


4. Kent State 1-3 ATS (Last Week #3)

The Golden Flashes (5-9 SU, 5-5 ATS in 2016) failed to cover against Clemson, Howard and Marshall to start the season and only covered the Point Spread for those Louisville backers laying 37, 37½ or 38 points in a Week 5 Saturday loss to the #19 Cardinals, 42-3 (LOU -42½, up from Open -37, BoL).following a scoreless, we-feel-sorry-for-you 4th Quarter. Fifth-year HC Paul Hayes (17-29-1 ATS) and Kent State (L5-6 ATS) have committed 37 Penalties (84.0 ypg) and the Golden Flashes Defense has allowed 504.37 ypg (#122), yielding 21 TDs. Expect ugly.


5. Brigham Young 0-4 ATS (Last Week: #5)

These Independent Rats called BYU have only scored 3 TDs in 4 games—2 of them in Week 1 against FCS side Portland State at Home in Provo, but in fairness to BYU (9-4 SU, 9-3 ATS in 2016), the Cougars have has played LSU, Utah and Wisconsin. After reeling off 9 ATS winners in 11 games, BYU has L5 in a row ATS dating back to last season and next up for the Cougars (-22.3 ppg) and 2nd-year HC Kalani Sitake (9-7 ATS) is what could be a tougher game than most think this weekend against rivals Utah State in Logan on Saturday.


6. Oregon State 0-4 ATS (Last Week: #7)

The Beavers (4-8 SU, 9-2 ATS in 2016) and 3rd-year HC Gary Andersen (12-14 ATS) are off to an 0-4 ATS start thanks to a porous Defense which has allowed a gaudy 6.39 ypp and 485.5 ypg (#117) so far and 25 TDs by opponents. In Week 5, Oregon State runs into #9 Washington in a Pac-12 meeting at Home in Corvallis in a Pac-12 meeting Saturday at Home in Corvallis (1-4 ATS L5 in series). The Beavers had covered 7 of 8 games to end the 2015 Regular Season but this 0-4 ATS start plops OSU on the list. OSU has been 24.9 ppg worse than the spread.


7. Texas El Paso 0-4 ATS (Last Week: #6)

Fifth-year HC Sean Kugler (20-28-2 ATS) and UTEP (4-8 SU, 5-6 ATS in 2016) check in at the No. 7 spot with an 0-4 ATS mark and a -35.0 ppg Point Differential (#128), but the Miners have had to face Oklahoma, Rice, Arizona and an upstart New Mexico State side. In Week 5, UTEP are at Army in a game in which you can see bad oddsmakers think this Miners team really is (ARMY -24, Pinnacle). UTEP is averaging a paltry 3.6 ypp on Offense (#126).


8. Missouri 0-4 ATS (Last Week: #11)

The Tigers (4-6 SU, 4-7 ATS in 2016) and 2nd-year HC Barry Odom (4-11 ATS) have gotten off to a horrific start—and SEC play is just starting for Mizzou (-21.1 ppg vs. ATS)—with this team -29.0 ppg in Point Differential after facing FCS side Missouri State, South Carolina, Purdue and Auburn in their first four games, The Tigers, last in the nation in Turnovers given up (-3.00 TO Per game), mercifully have a Bye Week this week before resuming SEC play at Kentucky in Week 6.


9. Temple 0-4 ATS (Last Week: Honorable Mention)

Temple has been outscored by 20.3 ppg (#114) and the Owls are averaging just 3.7 ypp on Offense. In Week 5 on Saturday, Temple plays host to Houston in an AAC matchup which sees the Cougars as big 14½-point Road chalks (49) in Philadelphia. The Owls are 0-5 ATS the L5 meetings with Houston, losing 24-13 as 5-point Underdogs in the last meeting in the AAC Championship Game in 2015 with then-QB Greg Ward. The spread seems accurate, but this one could get away from the hosts.


10. Western Kentucky 0-4 ATS (Last Week: Not ranked)

Western Kentucky has played -12.0 ppg under the posted Point Spreads after having such a nice 2016 (11-3 SU, 7-6 ATS) and the Hilltoppers are off in Week 5 before banging helmets with fellow Rats UTEP in El Paso in a Week 6 C-USA game in which the Hilltoppers should probably bust loose.

 11. UL Lafayette 0-3-1 ATS (Last Week: Not ranked)

Louisiana Lafayette (1-3 SU, 0-3-1 ATS) are -8.0 ppg vs. ATS and will enjoy a Bye Week before the Ragin’ Cajuns (6-7 SU, 7-5 ATS in 2016) head to Moscow, Idaho to face the Vandals in Week 6. Last season, the Vandals defeated ULL, 23-13, in Lafayette as 5-point Underdogs.


Honorable Ratty Mentions

Ole Miss (0-3 ATS), Miami-Ohio (1-3 ATS), Wyoming (1-3 ATS), NC State (1-3 ATS), FIU (1-2 ATS), Boston College (1-2 ATS).


Free NCAAF Week 4 Back The Cats Pick: Iowa State +6½ -101 over Texas at PinnacleFree NCAAF Week 4 Fade The Rats Pick: South Florida -23 over East Carolina 

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