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Kurtis Rourke of the Ohio Bobcats looks to pass as Hakeem Beamon of the Penn State Nittany Lions defends at Beaver Stadium on Sept. 10, 2022 in State College, Pennsylvania.
Kurtis Rourke of the Ohio Bobcats looks to pass as Hakeem Beamon of the Penn State Nittany Lions defends at Beaver Stadium on Sept. 10, 2022 in State College, Pennsylvania. Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images via AFP.

The Ohio Bobcats comes into Saturday's MAC Championship Game against Toledo on a hot streak. Will the Bobcats' injured quarterback be their downfall against the Rockets? Read on for our top Toledo-Ohio college football picks.

Toledo (7-5) stumbles into the Mid-American Conference Championship Game following consecutive losses. Ohio (9-3) won each of its last seven games but will be without its starting quarterback for the title game.

Here are our best Toledo-Ohio MAC Championship Game college football picks (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our college football best bets and all of our top picks for Week 14!

Toledo vs. Ohio Game Info

  • Date: Saturday, Dec. 3, noon ET
  • TV: ESPN
  • Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
  • Weather: Indoors

Toledo vs. Ohio Odds

Toledo vs. Ohio Odds Analysis

After opening as a four-point favorite, Toledo moved to -3 with -110 odds across the board. 54% of the money wagered on the spread has been placed on Ohio.

The total opened at 61 and plummeted to 54.5 at DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM. 64% of the money wagered on the total has gone Under.

Toledo vs. Ohio Picks

  • Spread: Ohio +3 (-110 via DraftKings, Fanduel, BetMGM) ★★★★
  • Over/Under: Under 54.5 (-110 via DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM) ★★★
  • Prop: CJ Harris Under 215.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ★★★★

Toledo vs. Ohio ATS Pick

Ohio +3 (-110) ★★★★

Though it’s true that Bobcats’ quarterback Kurtis Rourke was ruled out for this matchup, I’m not sure that fully explains Ohio being an underdog given its success against the spread this season.

Ohio is 9-3 ATS this year, tied for college football's fourth-best cover rate. Toledo is just 4-8 ATS this season. Only seven FBS programs covered the spread with less frequency. 

Backup QB CJ Harris handled his first start capably in last week’s win over Bowling Green, throwing a touchdown and adding three scores with his legs. Toledo’s offense ranks an FBS 90th in efficiency and won’t have enough punch to cover this line. As of this writing, all our recommended sportsbooks feature Ohio at +3 (-110).

Toledo vs. Ohio O/U Pick

Under 54.5 (-110) ★★★

The total fell by about a touchdown since it opened at 61 points. Both teams engaged in lower-scoring games down the stretch to influence the number on Saturday’s game.

Efficiency metrics don't give Ohio’s defense much credit, but the Bobcats haven’t let an opponent exceed 24 points against them over their past six games. Ohio gave up an average of 18 points per game during that span. Toledo’s first four conference matchups cleared this total, but only one of its last four has done so.

Though backup Harris should keep the Bobcats close after his solid showing against Bowling Green, he’ll have a tougher time throwing on a Toledo defense ranked an FBS 26th in passing yards allowed to opponents. Odds shopping is once again moot on this number, as DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM all offer this total at 54.5 with standard -110 odds regardless of how you want to bet it.

Toledo vs. Ohio Prop Pick

Harris Under 215.5 passing yards (-115) ★★★★

In his lone season start last week, CJ Harris completed fewer than 50% of his passes and threw for only 196 yards against a Bowling Green passing D ranked 95th nationally in allowing 251.6 passing yards per game.

Though Harris didn’t need to throw more frequently in the blowout win, I’m skeptical as to whether a pass-oriented game plan makes sense this week. Toledo ranks 47th in defensive efficiency and is far more effective in stopping the pass than the run. Harris can lean on his running backs and leverage his own mobility to move the chains Saturday.

You can’t easily shop around for odds on this play, as FanDuel and BetMGM don’t offer lines on Harris’ passing yardage total. Fortunately, the DraftKings mark feels exploitable enough at its current number.

Where to Bet on Toledo vs. Ohio Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Toledo-Ohio picks made 12/2/2022 at 1:48 p.m. ET.