Tigers Caught in a Hurricane, Back Miami as the College Football Pick

Charles Stark

Saturday, October 24, 2015 11:25 AM GMT

Saturday, Oct. 24, 2015 11:25 AM GMT

This should be a closer contest than the college football odds makers have it with Miami having a realistic shot of pulling off the upset. Join us as we preview a betting analysis & share a free pick.

 

College Football Odds
College Football Odds makers have come out making Clemson a 7.5 favorite. This makes sense considering their high-ranking overall in that they have been a couple quality teams. Defensively they have been very good but they are facing a very athletic Miami team that has some playmakers. The best odds right now at getting the 7.5 with the Hurricanes is at Pinnacle Sports -115. For one of my college football picks this week I will back Miami plus the points in this ACC battle.

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Clemson Tigers
Offensively Clemson averages 32.4 points per game, 431.6 yards per game, and a third-down 40% conversion rate. They do a lot of their damage on the ground rushing the ball 55% of the time for 170.8 yards per game. Overall though they have been far from any kind of offensive juggernaut when compared to some of the other teams ranked in the top 25. DeShaun Watson has done a pretty nice job at quarterback but in six games he is already thrown seven interceptions. This could play into the hands of a Miami team that ranks as one of the better teams in the country and picking off the ball.

Defensively Clemson allows 18 points per game, 296.6 yards per game, and a third-down 18.84% conversion rate. They rank first in the country in not allowing teams to move the chains on third-down, but they have also played all but one of their games at home. They have been extremely good against the rush and pass and rank as one of the better teams in the country in overall defensive statistics. Still, their past three games they have faced predominantly run offenses in Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Boston College. They will face that today against a Miami team that likes to put the ball up through the air almost 55% of the time.

 

Miami Hurricanes
Offensively Miami averages 31.4 points per game, 456.8 yards per game, and a third-down 33.78% conversion rate. For them to beat Clemson and pull off the upset they will have to move the chains against one of the stingier defenses in college football, but I think they will be able to do just that. Miami has been solid this year in attacking teams through the air and keeping their quarterback up right ranking 15th in the country in QB sack percentage. To stay within the number and possibly pull off the upset I believe they will do it through the air where they rank 13th in the country throwing for 332 point to yards per game.  Brad Kaaya will be arguably the best quarterback they have faced this season.

Defensively Miami allowed 27.2 points per game 439.4 yards per game, and a third-down 36.21% conversion rate. They have not been particularly good against the run or the pass, but they do rank eighth in the country in opponent interception percentage. In their last two home games versus Nebraska and Virginia Tech, two decent teams, they picked the ball off five times. I don't expect them to completely shut down Clemson, but they are at home which should be a positive, and they do rank first in the country in turnover margin per game.

I think Clemson is in for a little more of a fight than they might anticipate. Miami is not by any means an elite team, but it doesn't always take an elite team to beat a highly ranked team. With a couple breaks going their way, a good quarterback, and being at home I like for Miami to hang in this whole way or possibly even pull off the upset. Take Miami plus the points as one of your College Football Picks and expect a much closer game than people anticipate

College Football Pick: Hurricanes at Pinnacle

Not Convinced? Check Another Capper's Take on this Game

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