Three ATS Bets Worthy of your Week 6 College Football Picks

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, October 7, 2015 2:28 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2015 2:28 PM UTC

I missed on two of my three top picks last week, but got my top pick of the entire year right: Oregon giving just 7.5 at Colorado. Here are my three Week 6 top picks on NCAA odds.

No. 7 LSU vs. South Carolina
If you hold off betting this game for another day or two, you might get a big edge if you back the Tigers. Currently they are 13.5-point favorites on college football odds. That's because it's possible the game will have to be moved from South Carolina's Williams-Brice Stadium because of major flooding in that area from last week's storms. The stadium and surrounding campus emerged from the storm OK but the potential issue is the logistics in the surrounding area. Things such as the local highways, issues with first responders and police, etc. LSU already has had one game canceled this season by weather, its season opener vs. McNeese State. Canceling a conference game isn't an option. South Carolina has reached out to the Carolina Panthers about moving the game to Charlotte. Obviously going to a neutral site, even one still fairly close to Columbia, can only help the Tigers' cause.

All eyes will be on LSU running back Leonard Fournette here. The sophomore has had three straight games with at least 200 yards, the first player in SEC history to do so. Hard to believe a Herschel Walker or Bo Jackson didn't. Fournette still hasn't broken the school's single-game record of 250 yards, set by Alley Broussard in 2004. Seems only a matter of time. South Carolina isn't very good against the run, ranking 81st nationally in allowing 170.0 yards per game. The Gamecocks faced excellent Georgia running back Nick Chubb a few weeks ago and Chubb  had 159 yards and two scores on 21 carries in a Dawgs' blowout. Fournette is now -250 on college football odds to win the Heisman. It's LSU's first trip to Columbia -- if it happens -- since 2008.

NCAAF Free Pick: LSU. South Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its past five SEC games and 0-4 ATS in its past four against teams with a winning record. This program is a mess right now.

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Navy vs. No. 15 Notre Dame
The Irish are 14-point favorites on college football picks. These two schools have played every year since 1927 and on Saturday in South Bend the teams will wear matching Under Armour baselayers, gloves, cleats and socks for the game. The move is meant to "pay homage to the storied history and brotherhood between our two schools." That's pretty cool. But let's talk from a betting perspective. One argument going against the Irish would be that they might be a bit flat after last week's close loss at Clemson in a highly-charged game. And it's also possible that Notre Dame could be looking ahead to next week's game with No. 17 Southern Cal. But the Irish have one huge advantage here: they already have faced a triple-option team this season in Georgia Tech. Of course that's what Navy runs. The Notre Dame defense did a fine job against the Jackets in a 30-22 win, holding them to 216 yards rushing on 47 attempts (only 4.6 yards per carry is very acceptable against a run-heavy team like that). The Irish won at Navy 49-39 last year despite allowing 336 yards rushing and blowing a 21-point lead.

NCAAF Free Pick: Notre Dame. The Irish are 9-3 ATS in their past 12 vs. teams with a winning record.

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Miami (Fla.) At No. 12 Florida State
FSU is -9.5 on college football odds. This game could well determine the future status of Al Golden as Miami's coach. If the Hurricanes are routed at their arch-rival, then I see no way Golden returns next year. A close loss might still give him a chance if UM closes the season strong -- it has collapsed the past two years following a  loss to FSU. A win would do wonders for Golden's future. And for once, Miami probably has the better quarterback in this game:  Brad Kaaya over Everett Golson. Miami also might catch a huge break. FSU star running back Dalvin Cook, who is from south Florida, might not be able to go. He's dealing with a hamstring injury. Sophomore Johnathan Vickers will draw the assignment against Miami and true freshman Jacques Patrick will see more action as the No. 2 back if Cook is unable to go. Cook has 570 yards and six scores on 66 carries. Last year at Miami, he was a big reason that FSU rallied from a big deficit to win 30-26. Cook ran for two scores, including the go-ahead touchdown with 3:05 remaining. The Noles were down 16-0 and 23-7 before outscoring the Hurricanes 23-3 in the final 2 1/2 quarters.

NCAAF Free Pick: Miami covers. You might be able to get 10-10.5 by kickoff, especially if Cook plays. UM is 6-2 ATS in its past eight at Florida State. FSU is 1-5 ATS in its past six at home.

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