The 2015-2016 USC Trojans College Football Betting Schedule Analysis

Monday, July 13, 2015 8:05 PM UTC

Monday, Jul. 13, 2015 8:05 PM UTC

Take a moment to review the USC Trojans’ 2015 betting schedule analysis that is informed by betting data from 2010 onward. The college football betting trends can be applied to your future picks.

<p>In the post-Pete Carroll era, USC has gone 31-34 (47.69%) against-the-spread (ATS). USC’s current head coach, Steve Sarkisian, has one head-coaching season under his belt in Los Angeles. This more affable and gregarious (than Lane Kiffin) branch of the Pete Carroll tree has been a college football head coach for a total of six seasons both overall and <a href="" target="_blank" title="Season win total predictions for Pac-12">in the Pac-10/Pac-12</a>. Based on the closing line, his five seasons at the University of Washington resulted in a 34-28-1 (54.88%) ATS record (36-26-1 [58.06%] using the opening <a href="" target="_blank" title="See College Football Odds here">college football odds</a> line). We like to assess college football coaches by the sports-betting metric, margin-of-victory (MOV) against-the-spread (ATS). The per-game MOV ATS for Steve Sarkisian as a head college football coach is 1.61. Any positive number means the coach has exceeded public expectations. In Sark’s case, he has exceeded public expectations by an average of 1.61 points per game.</p> <p>Because Sarkisian has just one head-coaching year at USC, we thought it advisable to group all of USC’s post-Pete Carroll era games together to give a better (yet still imperfect) sense of what these Trojans do against betting lines when playing individual opponents. What follows, therefore, is <a href="" target="_blank" title="Must-Win Games for USC next season">the USC Trojans</a>’ 2015 betting schedule analysis that is informed by betting data from 2010 onward.</p> <p align="center"> </p> <table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="width:85px;height:34px;"> <p align="center"><strong>DATE</strong></p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:34px;"> <p align="center"><strong>OPPONENT</strong></p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:34px;"> <p align="center"><strong>LOCATION (STADIUM)</strong></p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:34px;"> <p align="center"><strong>NOTES (USC Since 2010)</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:40px;"> <p align="center">9/5/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:40px;"> <p align="center">Arkansas State</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:40px;"> <p align="center">Los Angeles, CA</p> <p align="center">(Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:40px;"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">USC is just 1-4 ATS in season-openers, with the only ATS win coming last season. As this is being written, some early college football betting lines have been released. Everywhere they were offered, USC opened this matchup as favorites of more than 28 points. <strong>USC is 5-5 ATS when opening as at least 21-point favorites, but they are 2-0 ATS in such games under Sarkisian. While Sark was at Washington, he went 4-1 ATS in games where the Huskies opened as favorites of at least 21-points.</strong></p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">While the Over is just 2-3 in USC season-openers, one of the two Overs was last season (with Coach Sark), and it <em>might</em> be noteworthy that USC, under Sarkisian, went Over 66.67% of the time at Home last season.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:13px;"> <p align="center">9/12/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:13px;"> <p align="center">Idaho</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:13px;"> <p align="center">Los Angeles, CA</p> <p align="center">(Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:13px;"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;"><strong>Excluding Notre Dame </strong>(since USC plays them every season)<strong>, the Trojans are 5-10 ATS versus non-conference opponents.</strong></p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">The Total is 7-8 (Over-Under) in those non-conference/non-Notre Dame games.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:24px;"> <p align="center">9/19/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:24px;"> <p align="center">Stanford</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:24px;"> <p align="center">Los Angeles, CA</p> <p align="center">(Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:24px;"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">USC is 4-1 ATS on the opening and 3-2 ATS on the closing betting line versus Stanford. The one time USC was the favorite (2012), the Trojans failed to cover the spread by 16.5 points. The visiting team is 4-1 ATS on the closing line (and 3-2 on the opening).</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;"><strong>The Under is 3-2 (which includes going 3-0 the last three games) despite an average of 78% of the public Totals’ betting on the Over. </strong>One of the two Overs was an overtime game.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:21px;"> <p align="center">9/26/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:21px;"> <p align="center">Arizona State</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:21px;"> <p align="center">Tempe, AZ</p> <p align="center">(Sun Devil Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:21px;"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">In recent history, USC does not have a good ATS record in games played away from the Coliseum in general, or against ASU (played anywhere) specifically. <strong>Versus the Sun Devils, USC is 1-4 ATS, and that includes failing to cover the closing spread by 16 points in last season’s contest. </strong>The line direction (from opening to closing) has suggested the wrong side in each of the last four games between these two schools.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">The Over is 4-1, and like the spread, the only anomaly was the 2012 game (which went Under). Interestingly enough, the game with the greatest percentage of public betting (around 83%) on the Over was 2012.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:21px;"> <p align="center">10/8/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:21px;"> <p align="center">Washington</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:21px;"> <p align="center">Los Angeles, CA</p> <p align="center">(Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:21px;"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">The Trojans are 3-3 ATS after a bye week, and that includes going 1-1 ATS under Coach Sark.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">USC has not played UW since 2012 when Sarkisian was coaching the Huskies. The Trojans are 1-2 ATS versus Washington.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">The Under is 2-1, but <strong>the Totals’ line direction (from opening to closing) suggested the wrong outcome all three times</strong>.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:19px;"> <p align="center">10/17/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:19px;"> <p align="center"><a href="" target="_blank" title="Read our preview for Notre Dame">Notre Dame</a></p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:19px;"> <p align="center">South Bend, IN</p> <p align="center">(Notre Dame Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:19px;"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">USC is 2-3 ATS versus Notre Dame, but <strong>Sarkisian’s Trojans beat the spread by 29.5 points last season- the greatest margin of victory ATS for either team in this rivalry in more than a decade</strong> (even greater than any Pete Carroll MOV ATS versus ND).</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">The Under is 4-1 with last season being the only Over (and it crept Over by just half-a-point).</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:29px;"> <p align="center">10/24/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:29px;"> <p align="center">Utah</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:29px;"> <p align="center">Los Angeles, CA</p> <p align="center">(Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:29px;"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">USC is 2-2 ATS versus Utah. <strong>The Home team is 4-0 ATS in this series, even though the visiting team received a majority of the public betting every time</strong>.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">The Under is 3-1, and the Totals’ line direction (from opening to closing) has indicated the correct Totals’ outcome all four times.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:17px;"> <p align="center">10/31/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:17px;"> <p align="center">California</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:17px;"> <p align="center">Berkeley, CA</p> <p align="center">(California Memorial Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:17px;"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;"><strong>USC is 4-1 ATS versus Cal, but that lone ATS loss was last year.</strong> In two of their five games there was reverse line movement (RLM). In both cases, the RLM side was wrong (i.e. the line movement indicated the wrong side).</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">The Under is 3-2, but the last time these two played in Strawberry Canyon they annihilated the 57-point closing Total by scoring a combined 90 points.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:22px;"> <p align="center">11/7/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:22px;"> <p align="center">Arizona</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:22px;"> <p align="center">Los Angeles, CA</p> <p align="center">(Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:22px;"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">The Trojans are 3-2 ATS on the closing line and 2-3 ATS on the opening versus the Wildcats. Twice Arizona has been favored (on the closing line), and both times USC beat the spread. Whichever team beat the spread, the margin of victory ATS has been close with the winning side beating the number by an average of just 5.2 points.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;"><strong>The Over is 3-2, but the two times this game was played in LA, the Over beat the closing Total by an average of 26.25 points.</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:18px;"> <p align="center">11/13/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:18px;"> <p align="center">Colorado</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:18px;"> <p align="center">Boulder, CO</p> <p align="center">(Folsom Field)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:18px;"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">USC is 3-1 ATS versus CU, but 1-1 ATS in Boulder. Both games in Colorado opened at USC -21.5 and closed at USC -20. USC went 1-1 ATS, but both times the actual point difference missed the opening spread by 3.5 points. <strong>For what it is worth, when Sarkisian was at Washington, his Huskies went 3-0 ATS versus Colorado, beating the spread by an average of 15.83 points per game.</strong> Coach Sark is now 4-0 ATS versus the Buffaloes.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">In USC-Colorado games, the Over is 3-1 and that included two Overs the two times this game was played in Boulder.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:5px;"> <p align="center">11/21/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:5px;"> <p align="center"><a href="" target="_blank" title="Find out What the Biggest Test For Oregon's New Quarterback is">Oregon</a></p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:5px;"> <p align="center">Eugene, OR</p> <p align="center">(Autzen Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:5px;"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">USC has not played Oregon since 2012. The Trojans are 1-2 ATS versus the Ducks, but the visiting team is 3-0 ATS. Oregon was favored and received the majority of the public betting all three times.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;"><strong>The Total has closed in the low 70s all three games- a very high number indeed. Despite the high Total, an average of 77% of the public Totals’ betting has been on the Over. The Totals’ line direction has gone up (from opening to closing) all three times- suggesting the Over was the right side, and lo and behold, the Over has been correct all three times.</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:5px;"> <p align="center">11/28/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:5px;"> <p align="center">UCLA</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:5px;"> <p align="center">Los Angeles, CA</p> <p align="center">(Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:5px;"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">USC is 2-3 ATS versus the Bruins, and <strong>UCLA has won the last three games in a row ATS, and by no small margin (beating the closing spread by an average of more than 18 points per game), even though the USC side averaged 63% of the public betting</strong>.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">Although the actual results average being just five points off of the closing Total, the Under is 4-1 (even though a majority of the public betting was on the Over in all five games).</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p align="center"><strong>©</strong></p>
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