Thanksgiving Egg Bowl See Bulldogs Biting Rebels

Mississippi State

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, November 21, 2017 8:02 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 21, 2017 8:02 PM UTC

This Thanksgiving Ole Miss will travel to Davis Wade Stadium to take on the heavily favored Bulldogs of Mississippi State. Let’s lock onto the only game on Thursday’s NCAAF slate and cash a ticket in our college football picks while we fill our bellies!

Ole Miss (5-6 SU, 3-7-1 ATS) vs. Mississippi State (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS)

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Free College Football Pick: Mississippi State -16Best Line Offered: JustBet
  • Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
  • Mississippi State is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Mississippi State is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss.
  • Ole Miss is 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss.
  • Ole Miss is 1-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Ole Miss is 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.

Last season the Rebels were favored to bring home the Golden Egg Trophy but the result was far different than the college football odds makers were led to believe. Installed as 10-point home favorites, the Rebels were smashed 55-20 by the underdog Bulldogs in last year’s meeting but this year the roles are reversed. The venue has shifted and so too has the favorite, as the Bulldogs are bowl bound and looking to end their season with an exclamation point. The odds have spiked on Mississippi State, opening as two-touchdown favorites to -16 in most of the major online sportsbooks. We believe there is a good reason why the Bulldogs will come out biting and it all starts with defense.

Despite their marginal record, Ole Miss has been able to generate offense as evidenced by their 33 points per game average, placing them 38th in the country. But they will be opposed by a significantly better defense than most they have faced this season when they meet their SEC rivals on Thursday. Mississippi State owns the nation’s 9th ranked defense in terms of total yards allowed. Coming into this one, the Bulldogs are surrendering just a click over 297 total yards per game and are No. 20 in points allowed, allowing just 19.5 per game. Let’s assume Ole Miss scores 24 points against a stout Mississippi State defense. How are they supposed to stop a juggernaut Bulldogs’ rushing attack that averages over 245 yards per game and an offense that scores almost 33 points per contest against much better defenses than the one owned by Ole Miss?

Personally, I doubt that the Rebels will manage even three touchdowns against an opportunistic Bulldogs’ defense that has registered 26 sacks this season. Expect the Mississippi State defense to make life miserable for Ole Miss and give State’s offense tremendous field position throughout. Back the Dawgs in your college football picks on Thanksgiving night.

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