Texas vs. Iowa State: Thursday Night's Big 12 Pick

iowa state texas

Swinging Johnson

Monday, September 25, 2017 1:18 PM GMT

Monday, Sep. 25, 2017 1:18 PM GMT

Big 12 action kicks off the week as the Longhorns on Thursday invade Jack Trice Stadium, where they will meet the the Iowa State Cyclones. Let's review the college football odds and determine which team is the right side to back.

Texas (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) at Iowa State (2-1, 3-0 ATS)

This is a bit of a pick-your-poison affair as Texas has lost nine of its last 11 road games, while Iowa State has not exactly thrived on the home cookin', having dropped five of their last seven home contests. However, if we are focusing on trends, let's take a look at a few of them:

  • Texas is 1-4 ATS in their last five Thursday games
  • Iowa State is 5-0 ATS in their last five Thursday games,
  • Iowa State is 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games
  • Iowa State is 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
  • The home team is 4-1 ATS in the schools' last five meetings.

Texas opened their season with a stunning 51-41 upset loss to Maryland as 19-point home favorites. The Longhorns rebounded in their next game when they hosted weak sister San Jose State and easily covered the 24½-point impost that the college football odds makers had installed by crushing the Spartans to the tune of 59-0. Texas then hit the road and gave USC all it could handle in a 27-24 loss but the cover was never in doubt for all those who backed the Horns as 16-point underdogs in their college football picks. Texas stands at 1-2 straight up and 2-1 against the number as they prepare to take on Iowa State.

The Cyclones have been an ATM thus far for their backers, covering all three of their contests and currently sit at 2-1 overall. Iowa State began their 2017 season with a 42-24 victory over Northern Iowa as 9-point home chalk and the following week hosted their cross-town rivals from the Big Ten, the Iowa Hawkeyes, dropping a hotly contested 44-41 shootout yet narrowly covered as 3½-point home dogs. In their last outing they took to the highway and trounced Akron 41-14 and easily covered the 10-point impost.

The matchup here is an interesting one, particularly when one considers that both teams have been on their bye and have had two weeks to game plan and strategize for this meeting. This merely comes down to whether the Cyclones' offense is able to sustain its 41½ point average against a Texas club that held the No. 5 USC Trojans to 27 points -- on the road, no less.

I like Iowa State's Jacob Park, who has completed nearly 67 percent of his passes and has eight TDs strikes with two picks in the books thus far. The Cyclones are more adept through the air than the Horns, but Texas boasts a rushing attack that is averaging over 190 yards per contest. If this turns into a track meet I like the home team's chances as the rushing game is great as long as you are ahead. Look for Iowa State to pass early and often on a suspect Longhorns' secondary and not only cover the number but win this one outright!

Free NCAAF Pick: Iowa State +5½Best Line offered: 5Dimes

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